51 research outputs found
Supplementary Material: Integrating Climate Change and Land Use Impacts to Explore Forest Conservation Policy
No full text<p>Supplementary files for Hyeyeong Choe and James H. Thorne, Integrating Climate Change and Land Use Impacts to Explore Forest Conservation Policy. <em>Forests </em><strong>2017</strong>, <em>8</em>, 321. Table S1: A list of climate vulnerable species in this study, Figure S1: Recent forest loss percentage versus forest in 2000 by administrative district, Figure S2: Proportion of forest for each district in current time and in each scenario by 2050, Supplementary File S1: 16 GIS raster layers for the spatial results of this study, Table S2: The average species richness value of each forest category between scenarios, Table S3: Forest Conversion Projection in Each Policy Scenario.</p>
기후변화에 대한 중국 내몽골 농민의 기후인식과 생계 회복력
No full text학위논문(박사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 농업생명과학대학 농림생물자원학부, 2024. 2. Hyeyeong Choe.기후 변화는 농업이 주된 생계수단인 개발도상국에 중대한 도전을 가져왔다. 농민들은 기후 변화를 직접 인식하며 영향을 받는 주체로, 정확한 기후 변화 인식은 효과적인 적응 전략 선택에 중요하다. 뿐만 아니라, 그들의 생계 회복력은 기후 변화의 중단에 직면할 때 그들이 생계를 회복하고 개선하는 데 도움이 된다. 본 연구의 두 가지 목표는 1) 농민들의 기후 변화에 대한 인식을 조사하고 이 인식의 정확도에 영향을 미치는 요인을 분석하는 것이며, 2) 농민들의 생계가 기후 변화에 얼마나 강건한지 및 이 회복력에 영향을 미치는 요인을 평가하는 것이다. Aohan Banner를 연구 지역으로 삼아 2021년에 농민 630명과 전문가 77명 (인식에 대한 42명, 생계 회복력에 대한 35명)을 대상으로 설문조사를 실시했다.
목표 1에 대한 답으로, 농민들의 기후 변화 인식의 정확도는 기상 데이터와 비교하여 측정되었다. 그런 다음 농민과 전문가는 12가지 기상 재해의 영향을 순위로 매겼다. 마지막으로, 농민들의 기후 변화에 대한 정확한 인식에 영향을 미치는 요인은 순서형 로지스틱 회귀를 통해 분석되었다. 발견된 결과는 다음과 같다: 1) 대부분의 농민은 기온이 상승하고 강수량이 감소하는 것으로 인식하고 있으며, 이는 기상 데이터 및 대부분의 전문가 의견과 일치한다. 2) 대부분의 농민은 풍속이 증가했다고 인식하고 있으나, 이는 기상 데이터 및 대부분의 전문가 의견과 반대이다. 3) 농민들의 기상 재해 영향 정도에 대한 인식은 연속적으로 가뭄, 서리 및 폭우이다. 영향 정도는 전문가 의견과 다르지만 가뭄에 대한 인식은 같다. 가뭄은 농민에게 가장 심각한 기상 재해로 여겨진다. 4) 경작 연수, 농업 수입, 인터넷과 텔레비전을 통한 정보 접근 및 기후 변화에 대한 관심은 농민들의 기후 변화 정확한 인식과 양의 상관 관계가 있다.
목표 2에 대한 답으로, 내는 강건성 이론을 기반으로 지표 체계를 구축하여 회복력을 측정하였고 종합 지수 방법을 사용하여 전문가와 농민 조사 데이터를 분석했다. 동시에 다중 선형 회귀 모델을 사용하여 서로 다른 생계 유형 및 도시 간에 농민의 생계 회복력에 영향을 미치는 주요 요인을 분석했다. 발견된 결과는 농업이 주된 직업인 농민들이 가장 높은 회복력 점수를 가지고 있으며, 생계 회복력은 지리적 위치에 따라 다르다는 것이다. 구체적으로, 생계 회복력은 남부에서 북부로, 그리고 산림 및 산림 초지에서 초원으로 점차 감소한다. 결과는 또한 교육 수준, 농업 기술 교육, 교통 인프라, 정보 접근성, 기후 변화에 대한 인식, 기후 변화 인식, 생계 전략 변화, 가족 규모 및 경작 지역 보유 크기가 농민 생계 회복력과 양의 상관 관계가 있음을 보여준다. 반면에 가구주 나이는 회복력과 음의 상관 관계가 있다.
따라서 정책 결정자는 1) 가뭄 재해를 효과적으로 대응하기 위한 전략을 시행하고, 2) 농민들을 위한 학습 활동과 농업 기술 교육을 확대하며, 3) 기후 변화 지식을 홍보하고, 4) 농업 생계 다양화, 5) 경작 지역 주변의 산림화, 6) 농촌 교통 환경 개선을 권고한다.Climate change brings significant challenges to developing countries whose primary livelihood is agriculture. Farmers are the ones directly perceiving and being affected by climate change, and their correct perception of climate change is critical for choosing effective adaptation strategies. In addition, their livelihood resilience can help them recover and improve their livelihoods in the face of climate change disruptions. This study has two objectives: 1) to examine farmers perception of climate change and analyze the factors that affect the accuracy of their perception; 2) to evaluate how resilient farmers livelihoods are to climate change and what factors influence this resilience. Taking Aohan Banner as a study area, I surveyed 630 farmers and 77 experts (42 for perception, 35 for livelihood resilience) in 2021.
To answer objective 1, the accuracy of farmers perception of climate change was measured by comparing it with meteorological data. Farmers and experts then ranked the impact of 12 meteorological disasters. Finally, the factors affecting farmers correct perception of climate change were analyzed by ordinal logistic regression. I found that: 1) Most farmers perception of temperature is rising, while their perception of precipitation is falling, consistent with meteorological data and most expert views. 2) Most farmers perception of wind speed has increased, which is contrary to meteorological data and most expert views. 3) Farmers perception of the impact degree of meteorological disasters, whose impact degree is successively drought, frost, and rainstorms. The impact degree is different from experts opinion, but the perception of drought is the same that drought is considered to be the most severe meteorological disaster affecting farmers. 4) The years of farming, agricultural income, access to information via the Internet and television, and concern about climate change are positively correlated with farmers correct perception of climate change.
To answer objective 2, I constructed an indicator system based on resilience theory to measure resilience and analyzed expert and farmer survey data using the comprehensive index method. Meanwhile, I used a multiple linear regression model to analyze the key factors affecting farmer livelihood resilience across different livelihood types and towns. I found that farmers who primarily worked in agriculture had the highest resilience scores and that livelihood resilience differed by geographical location; specifically, livelihood resilience gradually declines from southern to northern and from forest and forest-grassland to grassland locations. The results also showed that education level, agricultural technology training, transportation infrastructure, accessibility of information, awareness of climate change, climate change perception, change of livelihood strategies, family size, and the holding size of the arable area are positively associated with farmer livelihood resilience, while household head age is negatively associated with resilience.
I, therefore, advise that policymakers should 1) implement strategies to effectively address drought disasters, 2) increase learning activities and agricultural skill training for farmers, 3) publicize climate change knowledge, 4) diversify agricultural livelihoods, 5) afforest surrounding arable areas, 6) improve rural transportation conditions.Abstract i
List of Figures viii
List of Tables ix
Chapter 1. Introduction 1
1.1. Study Background 1
1.2. Research Objectives 4
1.3. Research Questions 5
1.4. Theoretical Framework 5
1.5. Research Structure 8
Chapter 2. Farmer Perception to Climate Change 9
2.1. Introduction 9
2.2. Materials and Methods 12
2.2.1. Study Details 12
2.2.2. Theoretical Framework 14
2.2.3. Research Site Description 17
2.2.4. Questionnaires of Farmers and Experts 18
2.2.5. Data Analysis 21
2.3. Results 22
2.3.1. Trends of Climate Change from 1981 to 2020 22
2.3.2. Characteristics of the Farmers Who Responded to the Survey 23
2.3.3. Accuracy of Farmers Perception of Climate Change 26
2.3.4. Perception of Meteorological Disasters 28
2.3.5. Factors Affecting Farmers Correct Perception of Climate Change 30
2.4. Discussion 38
2.4.1. Analysis of Farmers Perception of Climate Change 38
2.4.2. Analysis of Farmers Perception of Meteorological Disasters 39
2.4.3. Analysis of Factors Affecting Farmers Correct Perception of Climate Change 41
2.4.4. Significance and Limitation of the Research 44
2.5. Conclusions 45
Chapter 3. Farmer Livelihood Resilience to Climate Change 48
3.1. Introduction 48
3.2. Materials and Methods 53
3.2.1. Theoretical Background 53
3.2.2. Study Area 56
3.2.3 Questionnaire Surveys 58
3.2.3.1. Expert Survey 58
3.2.3.2. Farmer Survey 59
3.2.4. Questionnaire Analysis 61
3.2.4.1. Analytic Hierarchy Process for Expert Survey 61
3.2.4.2. Data Standardization and Weight of the Index for Farmer Survey 62
3.2.4.3. Comprehensive Index Method 63
3.2.4.4. Analysis of Factors Influencing Farmer Livelihood Resilience 65
3.3. Results 67
3.3.1. Relative Weight of Three Farmer Livelihood Resilience Dimensions Based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process for the Expert Survey 67
3.3.2. Sociodemographic Characteristics of Interviewed Farmers from Valid Farmer Survey Data 68
3.3.3. The Classification of Farmers Livelihoods Based on the Farmer Survey 69
3.3.4. Farmer Livelihood Resilience Index Weights from the Farmer Survey 69
3.3.5. Farmer Livelihood Resilience 70
3.3.5.1. Farmer Livelihood Resilience across Different Livelihood Types 70
3.3.5.2. Farmer Livelihood Resilience across Different Towns 78
3.3.6. Factors Influencing Farmer Livelihood Resilience to Climate Change 85
3.4. Discussion 87
3.4.1. Policy Implications 87
3.4.1.1. Livelihood Resilience Analysis Framework 87
3.4.1.2. Farmer Livelihood Resilience across Different Livelihood Types 89
3.4.1.3. Geographical Locations of Farmer Livelihood Resilience 89
3.4.2. Factors Influencing Farmer Livelihood Resilience 91
3.4.3. Limitations and Future Improvements 93
3.5. Conclusions 94
Chapter 4. Conclusions and Policy Suggestions 96
4.1. Conclusions 96
4.2. Policy Suggestions 97
Bibliography 100
Abstract in Korean 139박
Integrating climate change and land use impacts to explore forest conservation policy
No full textA scenario-based approach to the impacts of land use and climate change can help in identifying future policy directions. This study models the impacts of different land use and climate change scenarios on the forest ecosystems of South Korea to identify national-scale forest policy options. Climatically suitable forest areas for 1,031 climate vulnerable plant species were identified for current time and for 2050. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections. We built forest conversion models and created four 2050 forest scenarios: (1) forest loss continues at current rates; (2) similar loss, but with conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation and overall reduction of loss by 50%. We then crossed the forest conversion models with the climate-driven change in species richness, and categorized current forest areas into four classes to offer forest policy alternatives. By deploying the scenarios which preserve climatically suitable forests, the average species richness where forests converting to other land uses reduced significantly. We suggest conserving forests with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of forest plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.</jats:p
Integrating Climate Change and Land Use Impacts to Explore Forest Conservation Policy
No full textThis study uses a scenario-based approach to ask what are the varying impacts to forest extent and biodiversity from sixteen climate change and forest conversion scenario combinations, and what do they suggest about future forest conservation policy directions? We projected these combinations onto existing forests in South Korea and grouped them into four forest categories. We used species distribution models for 1031 climate vulnerable plant species as a biodiversity index, and found that species richness loss due to forest conversion could be reduced significantly by deploying the scenarios which preserve forest areas that are climatically suitable for these species. Climate-suitable forest areas declined sharply and moved northward as future temperatures increase, and climate-suitable areas lost the highest proportion of forest extent under the current trend of forest conversion. We suggest climate refugia, defined as existing forests with suitable future climates, be protected from land use conversion as a way to preserve forest biodiversity. These spatially explicit results can be used for developing forest conservation policies, and the methods may be applicable to other forested regions. However, planners should consider the assumptions and uncertainties of climate projections, species distribution models, and land use trends when addressing forest biodiversity conservation
Estimating the Impacts of Urban Expansion on Landscape Ecology: Forestland Perspective in the Greater Seoul Metropolitan Area
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Climate exposure of East Asian temperate forests suggests transboundary climate adaptation strategies are needed
No full textThe impacts of climate change traverse administrative borders, which calls for new strategies for forest ecosystem conservation and adaptive management. Despite relatively high biodiversity, the temperate forests in East Asia have lacked a comprehensive regional evaluation of potential climate change impacts. Here, we assess the level of climate change exposure of the Temperate Broadleaf and Mixed Forests Biome of East Asia by 2070. These temperate forests occupy 18 ecoregions, five countries, and 102 provinces. We categorize climate change exposure by classifying baseline (1960–1990) climate conditions for the current geographic distribution of five temperate forest types within each ecoregion and within the biome. We then measure the level of change under four future climates: a warmer or a hotter future climate and under reduced emissions (RCP4.5) or with emissions continuing unabated (RCP8.5). By 2070, using the RCP8.5 emission scenario, 24.5–65.7% of these forests enter non-analog or the most marginal 1% of baseline climate conditions. These results reveal the need for extensive transboundary governmental coordination, including forest preservation actions among 51 of 54 provinces that will retain some forest locations in climatically stable or low-risk conditions. Furthermore, among 96 provinces with forests that will be highly exposed, 90 will require transboundary climate change adaptation strategies because these forests span their borders, including the border areas of China, the Russian Federation, and North Korea. The analytical approach of this study could serve as a template for supporting transboundary institutional coordination to address climate change
Integrating Climate Change and Land Use Impacts to Explore Forest Conservation Policy
No full textA scenario-based approach to the impacts of land use and climate change can help in identifying future policy directions. This study models the impacts of different land use and climate change scenarios on the forest ecosystems of South Korea to identify national-scale forest policy options. Climatically suitable forest areas for 1,031 climate vulnerable plant species were identified for current time and for 2050. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections. We built forest conversion models and created four 2050 forest scenarios: (1) forest loss continues at current rates; (2) similar loss, but with conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation and overall reduction of loss by 50%. We then crossed the forest conversion models with the climate-driven change in species richness, and categorized current forest areas into four classes to offer forest policy alternatives. By deploying the scenarios which preserve climatically suitable forests, the average species richness where forests converting to other land uses reduced significantly. We suggest conserving forests with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of forest plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.</jats:p
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Omnidirectional connectivity of urban open spaces provides context for local government redevelopment plans
No full textGovernance of large cities requires local planning and administration, and most cities contain nested levels of government. There are challenges for coordinating urban planning and development among these local governments, which lead to the need to assess regional or city-wide contexts that can be used by smaller administrative units. Urban metabolism treats a city as a system within which the movement of resources can be estimated. In this study, we employed an urban metabolism approach to estimate the permeability of open space within an entire megacity, Seoul, the capital of South Korea. We provide district-level relative permeability scores for the 25 district governments to use in assessments and incentivize cooperation to improve the city’s overall open space connectivity. We analyzed the relative level of open space of 69 classes using Seoul’s land use map, and used Omniscape, a modeling tool that charts the level of suitability and resistance of every grid cell to every other grid cell using a moving window. This is an omnidirectional continuous approach that does not require open space “cores” or least-cost “paths”. We modeled two scenarios, one where open water is a barrier and contributes little to open space, and the other where open water is considered an attractive element to open space. We used the modeled outputs to define five levels of permeability and then compared the relative permeability scores for the 25 districts. Five districts had over 30% of their area in the lowest level, and eight of the 10 largest impermeable areas spanned across districts under water suitable scenario. The comparable metrics permit intra-district assessments to improve open space access, but also expect creative approaches to overcome issues including limited availability for open spaces
Spatiotemporal Patterns of Field Crop Diversity in the United States, 1870–2012
No full textDescribing spatiotemporal patterns of agricultural biodiversity may be an important step toward better understanding its effect on agroecosystem services. We describe species-level field crop diversity at the national and state level for the United States, using annual survey data for a 142-yr period. National-level field crop diversity was very low around 1870 and peaked around 1960, after which time it began to decline. Many states had their highest levels of diversity between 1940 and 1960, but trends varied strongly among states. In 1900, the states with highest diversity were in the Northeast, but in 2012 the highest diversity was found in California, North Dakota, and the southeastern states. Diversity in the central US Corn Belt was very low throughout the 142-yr period studied. These results show that changes in diversity do not necessarily follow a simple continuous decline when moving from “traditional” to “industrial” agriculture
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