1,720,986 research outputs found
A desirable future for technology risk management
No full textThis paper outlines a scenario for the future of Technology Risk Management which the author suggests is internally consistent, linked to current practice, achievable, and desirable. It is a personal view which reflects the concerns and goals of the author. It is offered as a basis for discussion with others of the goals we might seek jointly to facilitate effective progress
The optimal allocation of resources to a variable timetable
No full textIn this note we describe a programming method for allocating resources to a variable timetable. It is illustrated in terms of a restricted version of a general programming model for resource allocation to a CPA network, but it can be used for more general versions of the CPA model, and for the scheduling of ships, aeroplanes, buses and so on. It makes use of the standard trans-shipment transportation problem framework, although in practice the assignment matrix need not be constructed. A highly efficient initial solution is obtained first, then optimized via a primal method of dealing with the "either-or" constraints which arise because of the variability in the timetable
Lieutenant-Colonel Chapman, C.B., Royal Engineers
No full textFrederick Edward Chapman, C.B. posed standing with his horse in front of a hut.Title transcribed from verso."Major Chapman, engineers" written or printed on recto in reverse lettering. DLC"82" written or printed on recto at top. DLCRestricted access: Materials extremely fragile; Served by appointment only.Purchase; Frances M. Fenton; 1944.Forms part of: Roger Fenton Crimean War photograph collection
The efficient allocation of risk in contracts
No full textThis paper considers how project risk should be allocated between clients and contractors, where significant project risk is characterized as uncertainty about project costs requiring explicit attention and policy or behaviour modification. The risk efficiency of cost reimbursement and fixed price contracts given different degrees of client and contractor risk aversion is considered first, using a novel form of model. Then the potential for efficient risk sharing is considered in a mean-variance framework. The concern in both cases is with clarifying the rationale for conventional wisdom and resolving conflicting rules of thumb. Finally, practical application of the analysis with a mixture of controllable and uncontrollable risks is discussed
Constructively simple estimating: A design activity project uncertainty example
No full textA 'constructively simple' approach to estimating uses a decision support modelling paradigm based on project risk management and operational research concepts. It employs probability models selected from a set of alternative stochastic models of uncertainty with a view to maximising the insight provided, given an appropriate level of complexity. It addresses issues that include the joint use of subjective and objective probabilities, subjectivity of model data and structure, bias, data acquisition costs, the importance of getting an estimate right, optimising the estimating processes involved as a whole in approximate but robust terms, and differences in interpretation of what this means to estimators and users of estimates. Specific applications are necessarily context-specific to some extent, but the underlying ideas are of general applicability. This paper uses a simple example involving estimating the uncertain duration of a project activity to illustrate what is involved
Risk bartering: what post-M&A integration teams really do
No full textThis study is based on a £240m post-merger and acquisition integration project within a FTSE100 pharmaceutical manufacturing supply chain network which was successfully implemented over a four-year period. By adopting a grounded theory methodology, the research identifies phenomena that occurred within the integration teams to give insights into "what is going on here?" Through constant comparison analytical techniques, the research develops a substantive theory of "risk bartering" which explains how key individuals engaged and negotiated with each other resulting in mutually acceptable integration scenarios, with risk being used as an underlying trading currency. This provides novel insights into the role of risk in M&A integration change programmes
Evaluating fixed price incentive contracts
No full textThis paper considers choosing between different forms of fixed price incentive contracts. The analysis assumes the underlying probability density function for project costs is triangular. The methods of evaluation considered are expected value, certainty equivalence and stochastic dominance. The latter two methods take into account the typical risk aversion of contractors and clients. The analytical form of project cost and incentive contract adopted offer a robust analysis suitable for a wide variety of practical situations. However, the methods of evaluation described could be applied to other forms of contract and cost distribution. <br/
Sound, practical and fair allowances for uncertainty and risk: a starting position for 'clarity management'
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