6,643,798 research outputs found
Reply to “Comment on ‘Comparison of static-feedforward and dynamic feedback neural networks for rainfall-runoff modeling’ by Y.M. Chiang, L.C. Chang, and F.J. Chang, 2004. Journal of Hydrology 290, 297–311”
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Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system for prediction of water level in reservoir
No full textAccurate prediction of the water level in a reservoir is crucial to optimizing the management of water resources. A neuro-fuzzy hybrid approach was used to construct a water level forecasting system during flood periods. In particular, we used the adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to build a prediction model for reservoir management. To illustrate the applicability and capability of the ANFIS, the Shihmen reservoir, Taiwan, was used as a case study. A large number (132) of typhoon and heavy rainfall events with 8640 hourly data sets collected in past 31 years were used. To investigate whether this neuro-fuzzy model can be cleverer (accurate) if human knowledge, i.e. current reservoir operation outflow, is provided, we developed two ANFIS models: one with human decision as input, another without. The results demonstrate that the ANFIS can be applied successfully and provide high accuracy and reliability for reservoir water level forecasting in the next three hours. Furthermore, the model with human decision as input variable has consistently superior performance with regard to all used indexes than the model without this input
Multi-objective evolutionary algorithm for operating parallel reservoir system
No full textThis paper applies a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II), to examine the operations of a multi-reservoir system in Taiwan. The Feitsui and Shihmen reservoirs are the most important water supply reservoirs in Northern Taiwan supplying the domestic and industrial water supply needs for over 7 million residents. A daily operational simulation model is developed to guide the releases of the reservoir system and then to calculate the shortage indices (SI) of both reservoirs over a long-term simulation period. The NSGA-II is used to minimize the SI values through identification of optimal joint operating strategies. Based on a 49 year data set, we demonstrate that better operational strategies would reduce shortage indices for both reservoirs. The results indicate that the NSGA-II provides a promising approach. The pareto-front optimal solutions identified operational compromises for the two reservoirs that would be expected to improve joint operations
A counterpropagation fuzzy-neural network modeling approach to real time streamflow prediction
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Intelligent reservoir operation system based on evolving artificial neural networks
No full textWe propose a novel intelligent reservoir operation system based on an evolving artificial neural network (ANN). Evolving means the parameters of the ANN model are identified by the GA evolutionary optimization technique. Accordingly, the ANN model should represent the operational strategies of reservoir operation. The main advantages of the Evolving ANN Intelligent System (ENNIS) are as follows: (i) only a small number of parameters to be optimized even for long optimization horizons, (ii) easy to handle multiple decision variables, and (iii) the straightforward combination of the operation model with other prediction models. The developed intelligent system was applied to the operation of the Shihmen Reservoir in North Taiwan, to investigate its applicability and practicability. The proposed method is first built to a simple formulation for the operation of the Shihmen Reservoir, with single objective and single decision. Its results were compared to those obtained by dynamic programming. The constructed network proved to be a good operational strategy. The method was then built and applied to the reservoir with multiple (five) decision variables. The results demonstrated that the developed evolving neural networks improved the operation performance of the reservoir when compared to its current operational strategy. The system was capable of successfully simultaneously handling various decision variables and provided reasonable and suitable decisions
A Self-organization Algorithm for Real-time Flood Forecast
No full textThe group method of data handling (GMDH) algorithm presented by A. C. Ivakhnenko and colleagues is an heuristic self-organization method. It establishes the input–output relationship of a complex system using a multilayered perception-type structure that is similar to a feed-forward multilayer neural network. This study provides a step towards understanding and evaluating a role for GMDH in the investigation of the complex rainfall–runoff processes in a heterogeneous watershed in Taiwan. Two versions of the revised GMDH model are implemented: a stepwise regression procedure and a recursive formula. Eleven typhoon events in the Shen-cei Creek watershed, Taiwan, are used to build the model and verify its usefulness. The prediction results of the revised GMDH models and the instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) model are compared. Based on the criteria of forecasting precision and the rate and time of peak error, a much better performance is obtained with the revised GMDH models. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
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