5,218 research outputs found
Evidence of the new economy at the macroeconomic level and implications for monetary policy
No full textThe notion of new economy was coined in the United States when there was increasing evidence that, as a result of the introduction of new technologies, the traditional behavior of macroeconomic variables might have changed. The expansion of the 1990s differed from its predecessors in three important respects: productivity, inflation, and cyclical variability. In the United States, labor productivity increased much faster in the 1990s than in the previous decades and, contrary to the usual pattern, accelerated with the duration of the expansion. The view that most of the productivity acceleration was only cyclical and therefore not sustainable over a longer period of time has proven overly pessimistic. Productivity growth has remained on its elevated since the economy peaked. In other large industrial countries, by contrast, productivity growth has continued to decline or has improved only very slightly at best. Differences in productivity trends between the United States and other large industrial countries can be explained partly by the fact that in the United States IT production is more important and IT implementation relatively advanced. In addition, the identification of IT-related productivity gains in Europe is complicated by the general trend towards deregulation in labor and product markets and moderate wage increases that contributed to a rise in labor intensity, which tends to lower advances in productivity. In contrast to productivity developments, the behavior of inflation is consistent with a new economy in all large industrial countries. The moderate inflation can, however, be explained by adequate monetary policies and cyclical influences. Similarly, the analysis of cyclical variability concludes that changes in economic policies are a more important factor in explaining the reduced fluctuations in U.S. GDP than the advent of IT. A technology shock which raises the permanent level of output and, at least temporarily, the growth rate of the production potential has implications for monetary policy. In a world with rational expectations and sticky prices, the optimal reaction of monetary policy to an acceleration of potential output growth is to raise interest rates. The reason is that the expectation of higher incomes in the future causes current spending to grow faster than potential output and thus leads to inflationary pressure. In reality the optimal response of monetary policy to a shift in production potential is difficult to assess given the uncertainty concerning the timing and magnitude of new economy effects on the real economy. Being too expansionary probably has more severe consequences than erring on the other side, because the positive real effects would work through anyway, while inflationary expectations, once triggered, are difficult to reduce. --
Euroland: recovery will slowly gain momentum
No full textEconomic activity in the euro area has weakened since last summer. In the second half of 2002, real GDP increased at an annualized rate of around 1 percent only. Economy-wide capacity utilization has further declined and the situation on labor markets has worsened. The increase in consumer prices has calmed down somewhat after an acceleration at the beginning of last year. Still, the inflation rate remains surprisingly high against the background of weak economic activity that has already lasted for two years. Monetary policy in the euro area is clearly expansionary. With only about 0.5 percent, the real interest rate is currently quite low by historical standards. Moreover, the nominal interest rate is well below the rate implied by the standard Taylor rule, even when low estimates of the current size of the output gap and the equilibrium real interest rate are employed in the calculation of the rule. Still, monetary policy is probably not too expansionary. According to theory, the equilibrium real interest rate may be substantially below the long-run average real interest rate in situations such as the current one with depressed income and profit expectations. However, these considerations also imply that the ECB should bring the real interest rate back towards the long-run average once the depressing factors will have vanished. The situation of public finances in the euro area deteriorated further in the course of last year, with the aggregated budget in the countries of the euro area approaching a deficit of 2.3 percent of GDP in 2002. The cyclically adjusted budget deficit in the euro area was as high as in 1998, the year immediately before the beginning of the third stage of the Economic and Monetary Union. Whereas most countries have in the meantime complied with the goal of the Stability and Growth Pact to at least balance the budget over the medium term, the budget deficit in Germany, France, Italy and Portugal remained high both in actual and in structural terms. The governments of the three largest countries of the euro area are not likely to switch towards a policy of fiscal consolidation based on cuts in primary spending in 2003 and 2004. Moderate wage settlements would be appropriate in the current cyclical situation. However, wage increases have not slowed down over the past year, and are not expected to do so to any meaningful extent this year and next, reflecting the judgment that labor market rigidities will remain significant over the forecast horizon. Nevertheless, as employment is likely to be slow in responding to a recovery in production, the rise in unit labor costs will decelerate considerably, improving the chances that inflation will fall persistently below 2 percent. The leading indicators suggest that economic activity in the euro area will remain weak in the first half of this year. Under the assumption that the war in the Gulf region is of short duration and that the global political situation calms down afterwards, dampening factors from the Iraq conflict are expected to wane. Impulses from expansionary monetary policy will then increasingly take effect and domestic driving forces will gain the upper hand. We expect real GDP to increase by 1.0 percent and by 2.6 percent in 2003 and 2004, respectively. The situation on the labor market will start to improve towards the end of this year only. Inflation will be moderate over the forecast horizon. In 2004, consumer prices will probably rise by 1.9 percent on average, after 2.2 percent this year. --
Keynote Speaker: Patrick Meier
No full textPatrick is an internationally recognized expert and consultant on Humanitarian Technology and Innovation. His new book, Digital Humanitarians, has been praised by Harvard, MIT, Stanford, Oxford, UN, Red Cross, World Bank, USAID and others. Over the past 14 years, Patrick has worked in the Sudan, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Liberia, India, Philippines, Kyrgyzstan, Nepal, Timor-Leste, Turkey, Morocco, Western Sahara, Haiti, Peru, Vanuatu and Northern Ireland on a wide range of humanitarian projects with a number of international organizations including the United Nations, Red Cross and World Bank. Learn more about Patrick here: https://iRevolutions.org
Higher economic growth through macroeconomic policy coordination? The combination of wage policy and monetary policy
No full textStrengthening potential output is high on the agenda for economic policy in the European Union. While there is widespread agreement that structural policies have a positive impact on long-term growth, there is a controversial discussion whether coordination of macroeconomic policies can contribute to this goal. Against the background of the new economic conditions in the euro area, we analyze what could be gained from a combination of wage policy and monetary policy. Using a small theoretical macroeconomic model, we show that coordination between wage policy and monetary policy can be beneficial under certain assumptions. A policy of sustained wage moderation results in an increase in employment and potential output. Assuming that expectations are not completely forward-looking and prices are sticky, the upward shift in potential output will not be matched by a similar increase in aggregate demand. To prevent an output gap from emerging, the optimal monetary policy is to lower interest rates. However, a central bank aiming at price stability will only do so when the announcement of a policy of sustained wage moderation is credible. Simulations with a large macroeconometric multicountry model confirm that a coordination of German wage policy and ECB monetary policy would help to realize the beneficial effects of wage moderation somewhat faster, although the quantitative effect is relatively small. The long-run gain in employment would accrue regardless of a coordination with monetary policy. According to the simulations, employment in Germany would increase by about 750,000 persons in the long run if wages increase one percentage point slower than usual over a period of five years. Frequently, countries with a particularly positive economic development are said to have benefited from a coordination of macroeconomic policies. However, only a small part of the growth and employment success in these countries can be accounted for such a coordination. In the case of the United States, it is hard to see any evidence of ex ante policy coordination at all. In the Netherlands and in Ireland, a consensual strategy of wage restraint for improving the competitiveness of the economy and stimulating employment has been a significant factor of the economic success. It was important in both cases that significant supply side reforms were implemented by the governments at the same time, whereas monetary policy played no active role. Coordination of macro policies is severely complicated by the pronounced differences in national wage bargaining systems. The systems would have to be harmonized and centralized to create a single European wage policy. It is, however, unlikely that centrally designed harmonization of labor market institutions in the EU can cope with the differences across Euroland regarding productivity and employment. In the framework of the European Union, the presumed positive effects of policy coordination are stressed over and over again, for example in the Broad Economic Policy Guidelines. However, clear definitions and mechanisms how such a coordination can be achieved are missing. The fundamental difficulty concerning a coordination between wage policy and monetary policy arises from two facts: First, there is no such thing as “the” wage policy at the European level. Second, the statute of the ECB does not allow a binding commitment by the central bank. This does not mean, however, that the ECB would not take account of what is happening, for example, to wage developments. According to the monetary policy strategy, it should react if there is an increase in the growth rate of potential output as a result of wage moderation. For example: If the social partners in a large country such as Germany give a credible signal that wage increases will be moderate for several years, the ECB could accommodate this change. However, such a strategy cannot be reversed in that the ECB moves first hoping that wage moderation will follow. --
Euroland: Recovery will slow down
No full textThe economic recovery in the euro area has accelerated in the course of 2004. During the first two quarters, real GDP rose at an annual rate of slightly over 2 percent, after about 1½ percent in the second half of 2003. For the first time since 2001, overall capacity utilization increased. Exports were driven by the boom in the world economy so that the dampening effects of the previous appreciation of the euro were more than compensated. Internal demand picked up somewhat; especially private consumption recovered whereas investment of firms was rather sluggish. As a consequence of the upswing, the situation on the labor market stopped deteriorating. Inflation also picked up because of the surge in oil prices. During the summer, the HICP rose by more than 2 percent. The sharp increase in oil prices will dampen domestic demand in the near future. In addition, the boom in the world economy has probably already passed its peak. Consequently, the economic expansion in the euro area is likely to slow down somewhat in the rest of this year. This forecast is supported by various leading indicators. For 2004 as a whole, we expect real GDP to increase by 1.9 percent. The unemployment rate will average 9 percent and will thus be slightly higher than last year. Also because of higher oil prices, inflation will be higher than the target rate of the ECB. In 2005, the expansion of domestic demand will slow down further. Especially consumers will be cautious given the weak prospects for income in the medium term. External demand will also lose momentum so that real GDP growth will be moderate in the course of next year. The rate will average 1.9 percent. Inflation is expected to be slightly below 2 percent. All in all, the recovery will be very modest when compared to previous cycles. One reason is that the growth of potential output is lower than before. Our estimate for the current year amounts to 1 percent. The slowdown in recent years is mainly due to the slower growth of productivity. In contrast, the number of total hours worked has increased. Apparently gains of employment can only be achieved at the expense of productivity growth. This is a pessimistic diagnosis given the goal of the EU to become the most dynamic economic region of the world. In spite of the economic recovery, the situation of public finances has deteriorated further. The aggregated budget deficit will probably increase to 2.8 percent of GDP, compared to 2.7 percent last year. The deficits will also be higher than reported in most national Stability Programmes. In addition to Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Greece, the deficit ratio will also exceed the 3 percent margin in Italy and Portugal. The current proposals for a reform of the Pact are mainly concerned with a more generous interpretation of the 3 percent ceiling. However, the main target of the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is that government budgets should be balanced or in surplus over the medium term. This target has not been achieved in many countries in recent years; it is not even planned in the Stability Programmes for France and Germany until 2007. This failure cannot be attributed at all to the weakness of the economy in recent years. In fact, the cyclically adjusted deficits of these two countries are higher today than at the end of the 1990s. In other words, there has not been a consolidation of the budget at all. If the SGP loses its strength or if there were no binding rules for fiscal policy, the consequences would be severe for various reasons. First of all, it would be a disadvantage for the countries themselves. Given the likely demographic changes, it would be wise to start saving now; the fact is, however, that the debt burden continues to increase making fiscal policy less sustainable. Second, those countries which intend to join the monetary union in the near future hardly have any incentive to stick to the targets of the Pact if other members ignore or stretch the rules. The criteria for entry would therefore be softened which would be in stark contrast to the fundamentals of the European Monetary Union. The ECB has left key interest rates at a very low level for more than a year. Meanwhile, the euro area economy has recovered as expected by the central bank. The high oil prices are a risk factor for the future path of economic activity. However, this will probably not lead to a cut of interest rates especially because inflation has remained stubbornly high. The next step is likely to be a tightening of monetary policy. Given our forecast of a moderate upturn, we expect that monetary policy will be tightened only moderately; a raise of 25 basis points is likely around the turn of the year. Such a move is also in line with the reactions of the ECB in the past, which can be described by an empirical Taylor rule. --
Why economic growth has been weak in Arab countries: The role of exogenous shocks, economic policy failure and institutional deficiencies
No full textThe gap between the per capita income of most Arab countries and that of advanced industrial countries has widened since the early 1990s. The economic growth performance of the Arab world has been weak by developing country standards, too. Yet, the diversity of growth patterns within this group defies easy generalizations on the reasons underlying the disappointing performance. In some cases, country-specific shocks played a role, notably for relatively high growth in Sudan (discovery of oil) and the poor performance of Jordan (embargo on neighboring Iraq). On the whole, however, influences beyond the immediate control of Arab policymakers contribute surprisingly little to the explanation of growth patterns. The relation between terms-of-trade developments and economic growth turns out to be extremely weak. Moreover, the IMF and the World Bank are hardly to blame for imposing ineffective policy conditionality on Arab countries, if only because the leverage of international financial institutions has remained limited in the region. Economic policy failure in Arab countries appears to be a more important reason for poor growth. Even though the region has partly fallen into line with the Washington Consensus, various Arab countries lag behind other developing countries when it comes to trimming the interventionist role of the state and integrating themselves into the global division of labor through trade and foreign direct investment (FDI). Nevertheless, the relation between macroeconomic conditions, factor accumulation as well as trade and FDI liberalization on the one hand and economic growth on the other hand remains elusive. This may be because reforms have not gone far enough and have remained fragmentary even in Arab countries with a relatively favorable growth performance. It can neither be ruled out, however, that some elements of the Washington Consensus have been less effective than widely expected in promoting growth. For example, the enclave character of FDI in some Arab countries is rather unlikely to spur per capita income growth. This implies that country-specific conditions deserve close attention when designing economic policy reforms. In Arab countries with low per capita income, domestic resource mobilization appears to be more important than attracting FDI. Even in more advanced countries such as Egypt and Tunisia, continued efforts towards human capital formation are key to sustainable growth. Furthermore, policy-related variables and economic growth depend on more deeply rooted institutional deficiencies. Institutions in many Arab countries are less advanced than their income level would suggest. The experience of several oil exporters in the region supports the proposition that the abundance of oil encourages rent-seeking and exerts a negative impact on economic growth via its deleterious impact on institutional development. As a consequence, economic policy reforms along the lines of the Washington Consensus are not sufficient to improve the growth prospects of Arab countries. The call for institutional reforms mainly applies to resource-rich countries such as Algeria, Saudi Arabia and Sudan, notwithstanding their different growth performance in the past. It may prove difficult for these countries to overcome the natural resource curse, but the successful transformation of a country like Mexico from an oildependent to a highly diversified economy with more advanced institutions may show Arab countries the way. --
Now so near, and yet still so far: economic relations between Ukraine and the European Union
No full textKiev is not so far away from Brussels as one might expect. Ukraine already performs quite well when compared to the other countries in the queue for entry into the EU. Especially the fiscal and external debt figures are better than in other countries. On the negative side, there is a considerable backlog with respect to the development of administrative and judicial institutional capacities, and a potential for macroeconomic instability due to monetary expansion, rising inflation rates, and real exchange rate instability. From a macro perspective, the most pressing issue is to end inflationary pressures resulting from targeting the exchange rate to a weakening dollar. Among the alternative frameworks available to Ukraine, the current exchange rate anchor can be made more flexible by targeting a basket made of the US dollar and the euro. Such an exchange rate anchor framework provides a clear indication to the public about monetary policy, disciplines fiscal policy, and is relatively easy to manage. Additionally, a clearer link to the euro may be useful for a greater integration into the EU. From a micro perspective, the most pressing issues which can be targeted in the short run are taxation and competition policy. The tax system is unstable, complex, and inconsistent. A reduction of tax exemptions could broaden the tax base and allow for lower nominal tax rates. Privatization has been rather limited in the non-traded goods sectors. Additionally, the completion of privatization needs to be coupled with a more robust and consistent regulatory framework in order to attract more FDI, as was the case in the new member states of the EU. Sandwiched between the EU and Russia, Ukraine is likely to derive substantial gains from EU integration. Excluding the energy sector reveals that Ukrainian trade with the EU already outperforms its trade with Russia. In addition, EU integration is likely to attract more inflows of foreign capital if the new government is able to provide a more attractive macroeconomic and institutional environment. Ukraine should press for fast reforms and use the ?honeymoon? period of the new government to open negotiations for EU membership by submitting a formal application. This will, among other things, help to prevent vested interest groups from blocking the reform process. A pragmatic approach for an integration strategy would include four elements: identifying reform priorities; harmonizing Ukraine?s legislation with EU law; undertaking steps to get a market economy status from the EU; and, finally, signing a free trade agreement with the EU. The EU, on its side, should actively support the continuation of the reform process in the country, especially with respect to institution building. Finally, one must stress that the EU itself will gain from this enlargement, as it has gained from all the previous ones. In our view both sides are now facing a historic opportunity that should not be missed, neither by Kiev nor by Brussels. --
How the EU can move to a higher growth path : some considerations
No full textIn the current slowdown in Europe, the United States and Japan, policy makers are vexed by the question when a recovery will come. This is the wrong question. The issue should be how a higher growth path can be reached in the long run, i.e., how the potential growth rate of our economies can be increased from the supply side. --
Liberalizing international trade in services: Challenges and opportunities for developing countries
No full textSeveral developments in international trade in services impact strongly on developing countries: First, the world-wide diffusion of information technologies (IT) has created new export opportunities for developing countries in IT services. Second, the recently proclaimed Millennium Development Goals for poverty reduction can only be attained if key services are provided more efficiently in developing countries - particularly through the liberalization of service imports. Third, in the ongoing Doha Development Round (DR) of trade negotiations, developing countries are asked to formally commit to liberalizing their service imports under the terms of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). Developing countries will benefit from liberalizing service imports if liberalization enhances competition on the supply side. This is typically the case for producer services, such as domestic and international transport, financial services, and telecommunications. The lifting of restrictions on the market access by foreigners (including through direct investment) will often improve service quality or lower prices and thereby enhance the international competitiveness of downstream industries. In Doha Development Round negotiations, therefore, developing countries may find it useful to commit to liberalizing imports of producer services. By contrast, the benefits of import liberalization are less clear for some consumer services where supply is subject to network monopolies (e.g., water and energy distribution) or demand is constrained by poverty (health care, education). Here, achieving a socially optimal level of supply may require carefully calibrated government policies, possibly with international donor support. For developing countries, such sectors should not be priority areas for commitments on service imports under the GATS. Most service exports by developing countries, especially IT services transmitted electronically, face few import barriers in industrialized countries. However, under the GATS, service exports may also be delivered through temporary movement of natural persons, e.g., developing country nationals working in industrialized countries without becoming residents there. If Doha Development Round negotiations were to increase opportunities for such temporary labor migration, the benefits to developing countries could be huge. --
Foreign direct investment in developing countries: What policymakers should not do and what economists don't know
No full textSince recent financial crises in Asia and Latin America, developing countries have been strongly advised to rely primarily on foreign direct investment (FDI) in order to promote economic development on a sustainable basis. Even harsh critics of rash capital account liberalization argue in favor of opening up towards FDI. Yet, economists know surprisingly little about the driving forces and the economic effects of FDI. There are few undisputed insights on which policymakers can rely. Globalization through FDI has become significantly more important since the early 1990s. Various groups of developing countries have participated to a strikingly different degree in the FDI boom. However, the distribution of FDI does not support the widely held view that FDI is concentrated in just a few developing countries. Considered in relative terms, various small and less advanced countries have been attractive to FDI. Policymakers should be aware that various measures intended to induce FDI, including the liberalization of FDI regulations and business facilitation, are unlikely to do the trick. Promotional efforts will help little to attract FDI if economic fundamentals are not conducive to FDI. Fiscal and financial incentives offered to foreign investors may do more harm than good by giving rise to costly “bidding wars.” The importance of traditional determinants of FDI, notably the size of local markets, can no longer be taken for granted. Globalization tends to induce a shift from purely market-seeking FDI to new types of FDI, for which the international competitiveness of local production is highly relevant. The challenge for policymakers in developing countries then is to create immobile domestic assets that provide a competitive edge in the competition for FDI. This task has various dimensions, ranging from local capacity building and the provision of efficient business-related services to trade liberalization with regard to capital goods and intermediate products. Policymakers should not expect too much from FDI inflows. Capital formation continues to be a national phenomenon in the first place. FDI is superior to other types of capital inflows in some respects, particularly because of its risksharing properties, though not necessarily in all respects. The nexus between FDI and overall investment as well as economic growth in host countries is neither self-evident nor straightforward, but remains insufficiently explored territory --
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