24 research outputs found
Drivers of change in the European youth employment: a comparative structural decomposition analysis
No full textThis paper uses a structural decomposition approach to examine the proximate causes of change in the EU15 youth workforce from 1995 to 2011. Besides the traditional sources considered by the literature, I include age-specific factors: a labor utilization index that accounts for the hours that employed youth work by showing the extent of part-time contracts; an age mix factor that indicates the share that youth comprise of total employment and, finally, changes in the inverse of the overall sectoral labor productivity, which describes variations in total labor demand. By applying this approach, I identify the core drivers behind the recent changes in the evolution of youth employment in each of the 15 countries; this is crucial for tailoring policy strategies. Results suggest that to foster youth employment, most Mediterranean countries should implement youth-specific measures while other EU15 countries could do so by enhancing overall employment
A BI-REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL FOR GALICIA AND THE REST OF SPAIN: ESTIMATING SPILLOVER AND FEEDBACK EFFECTS OF TOURISM.
Get PDFThe main particularity of Tourism is to be defined from the demand side, instead from the supply side like the other economic activities. For this reason, Tourism impact studies are usually performed with demand models based on input output (IO) methodology. Moreover, these types of models allow us to identify the direct and indirect effects of changes in final demand. Originally, the applications of the classic Leontief model were undertaken at national level, but the important disparities in regional specialization resulted in the development of input-output tables at more disaggregated level. Nevertheless, one-region models do not recognize the interdependencies between regions, i.e. each region appears isolated from the others. This is a really hard assumption in the regional analysis since exchange of workers and trade of goods with the rest of the country is much important at this level. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to compare the results obtained with the classic demand model with a two-region model. Using the bi-regional model, it is possible to measure the existence and significance of outflows or “leakages†and inflows or “gains†in the production process, whether from trade or use of non-resident workers. For practical purposes, we estimate the economic impact of Tourism for a Spanish region, Galicia. In this way, we can consider the peculiarities of its productive structure and its relation with the Rest of Spain taking into account the spillover (outflows) and the feedback effects (inflows).
A BI-REGIONAL INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL FOR GALICIA AND THE REST OF SPAIN: ESTIMATING SPILLOVER AND FEEDBACK EFFECTS OF TOURISM.
Get PDFThe main particularity of Tourism is to be defined from the demand side, instead from the supply side like the other economic activities. For this reason, Tourism impact studies are usually performed with demand models based on input output (IO) methodology. Moreover, these types of models allow us to identify the direct and indirect effects of changes in final demand. Originally, the applications of the classic Leontief model were undertaken at national level, but the important disparities in regional specialization resulted in the development of input-output tables at more disaggregated level. Nevertheless, one-region models do not recognize the interdependencies between regions, i.e. each region appears isolated from the others. This is a really hard assumption in the regional analysis since exchange of workers and trade of goods with the rest of the country is much important at this level. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to compare the results obtained with the classic demand model with a two-region model. Using the bi-regional model, it is possible to measure the existence and significance of outflows or "leakages" and inflows or "gains" in the production process, whether from trade or use of non-resident workers. For practical purposes, we estimate the economic impact of Tourism for a Spanish region, Galicia. In this way, we can consider the peculiarities of its productive structure and its relation with the Rest of Spain taking into account the spillover (outflows) and the feedback effects (inflows)
Using the Web to Predict Regional Trade Flows:Data Extraction, Modeling, and Validation
Get PDFDespite the importance of interregional trade for building effective regional economic policies, there are very few hard data to illustrate such interdependencies. We propose here a novel research framework to predict interregional trade flows by utilizing freely available Web data and machine learning algorithms. Specifically, we extract hyperlinks between archived Websites in the United Kingdom and we aggregate these data to create an interregional network of hyperlinks between geolocated and commercial Web pages over time. We also use existing interregional trade data to train our models using random forests and then make out-of-sample predictions of interregional trade flows using a rolling-forecasting framework. Our models illustrate great predictive capability with R2 greater than 0.9. We are also able to disaggregate our predictions in terms of industrial sectors, but also at a subregional level, for which trade data are not available. In total, our models provide a proof of concept that the digital traces left behind by physical trade can help us capture such economic activities at a more granular level and, consequently, inform regional policies.尽管区域间贸易对于制定有效的区域经济政策至关重要, 但很少有表述这种依赖关系的数据。我们创新地提出了一个研究框架, 利用免费网络数据和机器学习算法去预测区域间贸易流量。具体的, 我们提取了英国存档网站之间的超链接并对这些数据进行汇总, 创建了地理位置和商业网页之间的跨区域跨时间超链接网络。利用现有区域间贸易数据, 对随机森林模型进行训练。然后, 使用滚动预测框架对区域间贸易流量进行样本外预测。模型显示出强大的预测能力（R2大于0.9）。预测可以分解到不同的工业部门以及无法获得贸易数据的次区域。总体来说, 我们的模型证实, 实物贸易的数字痕迹帮助我们在更精细水平上捕捉此类经济活动, 从而为区域政策提供信息。A pesar de la importancia que tiene el comercio interregional para edificar políticas económicas regionales efectivas, muy escasos son los datos concretos que ilustren tales interdependencias. En este escrito proponemos un marco novedoso de investigación para predecir los flujos de comercio interregional utilizando los datos web disponibles en acceso gratuito y algoritmos de aprendizaje automático. Específicamente, extraemos hipervínculos entre sitios web archivados en el Reino Unido y realizamos la agregación de estos datos para crear una red interregional de hipervínculos entre páginas web geolocalizadas y comerciales, a lo largo del tiempo. Usamos también algunos de los datos comerciales interregionales existentes para ensayar nuestros modelos utilizando bosques aleatorios, para luego formular predicciones por fuera de la muestra de los flujos interregionales del comercio, usando un marco predictivo continuo. Nuestros modelos exhiben una gran capacidad predictiva, con un R2 mayor a 0,9. Podemos, además, desagregar nuestras predicciones en términos de los sectores industriales, aunque también al nivel subregional, para el cual no hay disponibilidad de datos comerciales. En total, nuestros modelos suministran una prueba de concepto de que los rastros digitales que deja el comercio físico nos pueden ayudar a captar esas actividades comerciales a un nivel más granular y a informarnos consecuentemente sobre las políticas regionales
Income distributions in multi-sector analysis; Miyazawa’s fundamental equation of income formation revisited
Get PDFIn standard type 1 input-output models, households’ activities are part of the exogenous final demand. This means that their scale and composition are exogenously determined. That is, if some other final demand categories change (say public investment or exports) this does not influence the behaviour of the household categories. In type 2 input-output models households’ activities are explained endogenously to capture the possibility of mutual interaction between household categories and productive sectors. In this area, Miyazawa (1976) proposed a novel way of modeling the endogenization of households’ activities. In modeling terms, Miyazawa’s proposition resulted in the so-called ‘fundamental equation of income formation’, core of which is an extended input coefficients matrix. This extended coefficients matrix produced several new types of multiplier matrices and explains industrial gross output and households’ income in terms of non-household final demand in great detail. The model is traditionally solved by inverting the new extended coefficients matrix, which often generates highly complex outcomes in terms of convoluted multiplier matrices. Consequently, the link between final demand impulses, gross outputs and income formation is not straightforward, working sometimes in different directions. Regarding this aspect, as we shall show, there is a second way to solve Miyazawa’s fundamental equation, which is much more transparent. This second way shows that Miyazawa type endogenization means that gross output and (remaining) final demand are directly linked via a new type of coefficients matrix. This matrix is the sum of the traditional matrix of intermediate input coefficients and a number of matrices of rank 1, each one corresponding to an endogenized households category. The existence of this matrix makes several new applications possible including the study of shifts over time in the distribution of income and (un)employment between the households categories involved. In an appendix we briefly focus on the link between the use of matrices of rank 1 in, respectively, Leontief, Sraffa and Miyazawa input-output economics
The evolution of household-induced value chains and their environmental implications
No full textThe growing fragmentation of production processes and expansion of international trade in the last decades have increased the scope and complexity of value-added chains worldwide causing a rearrangement of sectoral linkages intra- and inter-regionally. In terms of economic spillovers, this implies that a dollar entering a particular economy nowadays follows a different path than a decade before, permeating in longer interregional feedback loops and creating additional multiplier effects outside its region of origin. However, it also implies that the environmental burden that such this dollar generates has changed in scale and spatial distribution. In this paper, we explore the evolution of these “paths” over the period 1997–2008 and highlight the main drivers of observed structural changes that contribute to the surge or decline of the spatial distribution of economic spillovers and greenhouse gases emissions. We specifically study the effects of an increase in income in the United States, the country with the largest trade volume in the world. We introduce an extended version of the Temporal Leontief Inverse (TLI) framework that allows tracing the evolutionary path of the American households' multiplier in a quasi-dynamic fashion, isolating the contribution of expenditure patterns, income, trade and foreign structural change to the temporal evolution. We find similar growing multiplier effects inside and outside the US due to services and manufacturing respectively, but a declining local environmental burden due to changes in interindustry relations inside the US with declining manufacturing and a reduced emission intensity. We also highlight the fragmentation process with declining foreign intraregional spillovers and increasing trade spillovers
Industrial embeddedness and regional economic resistance in Europe
Get PDFWe study the role of local industrial embeddedness (the share of regional interindustry economic activity that is anchored to a region) on regional resistance (the difference between pre- and postcrisis employment) to the 2008 Great Recession (GR) in EU and UK NUTS-2 regions. The recession had profound effects in regional economies, which showed diverse performance based on their capacity to absorb the shock. The concept of economic resilience has been brought to the center of attention with several contributions exploring its determinants. However, the impact of the embeddedness of local economic systems in terms of sales and supplies has been largely unexplored. We use regional input–output tables to approximate the embeddedness of local economies, and we use fixed-effects and quantile regressions to test its relationship to regional resistance between 2008 and 2011. We find that during the GR, regional industries opted to change input rather than output markets. Additionally, embeddedness has a curvilinear relationship to regional resistance that varies across the distribution of regional resistance performance. Finally, at the industry level, we find regional embeddedness to be important to the resistance of manufacturing and financial and business services, and sectoral embeddedness to matter more for the resistance of construction and wholesale, retail, and information technology. Our findings highlight nuances that policy makers should be aware of in planning for resilience
Gray water and environmental externalities:international patterns of water pollution through a structural decomposition analysis
No full textIn order to provide insights on the dynamics of water pollution worldwide, this paper analyzes the main drivers of gray water discharge during the 1995–2009 period and the effort on reducing gray water compared to other environmental externalities. Based on the World Input-Output Database, a structural decomposition analysis (SDA) of gray water generation shows that domestic demand for food is the main driver of gray water changes in all countries, while relocation of industrial activities to developing nations has disproportionally transferred this burden from developed countries' manufacturing industries. This paper also introduces a novel hybrid multiplicative-additive SDA that overcomes the issue of distributing large interaction terms in standard additive models and allows simulating mitigation scenarios
UK interregional inequality in a historical and international comparative context
Get PDFThis paper explores the nature and scale of inter-regional and inter-urban inequalities in the UK in the context of international comparisons and our aim is to identify the extent to which such inequalities are associated with strong national economic performance. In order to do this, we first discuss the evolution of UK interregional inequalities relative to comparator European economies over more than a century. We then focus specifically on comparisons between the UK and the reunified Germany. These two exercises demonstrate that the experience of the UK has been rather different to other countries. We further explore UK inter-urban inequalities in the light of international evidence and then explain why observations of cities only tell us a partial story about the nature of interregional inequalities, especially in the case of the UK. Finally, we move onto an OECD-wide analysis of the relationships between economic growth and interregional inequality. What we observe is that any such relationships are very weak, and the only real evidence of a positive relationship is in the post-2008 crisis period, a result which points to differentials in regional resilience rather than inequality-led growth. Moreover, once former transition economies are removed from the sample, the relationship disappears, or if anything becomes slightly negative. As such, the international evidence suggests that the UK's very high spatial inequalities have hampered, rather than facilitated, national economic growth.</p
