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    New insights into the temporal prediction of landslides by a terrestrial SAR interferometry monitoring case study

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    Ten small rock slides (with a volume ranging from 101 to 103 m3) on a slope affected by working activities were detected, located, and timed using pictures collected by an automatic camera during 40 months of continuous monitoring with terrestrial SAR interferometry (TInSAR). These landslides were analyzed in detail by examining their pre-failure time series of displacement inferred from high-sampling frequency (approximately 5 min) TInSAR monitoring. In most of these cases, a typical creep behavior was observed with the displacement starting 370 to 12 h before the collapse. Additionally, an evident acceleration decrease of the displacement a few hours before the failure was observed in some rock/debris slides, thus suggesting the possibility of a mechanical feature of the slope that differs from the classical creep theory. The efficacy of the linear Fukuzono approach for the prediction of time of failure was tested by back-analyzing the ten landslides. Furthermore, a modified Fukuzono approach named average data Fukuzono (ADF) was implemented and applied to our dataset. Such an approach is able to improve forecasting effectiveness by reducing the error due to anomalies in the time series of displacement, like the acceleration decrease before failure. A prediction with a temporal accuracy of at least 2 h was obtained for all the analyzed rock/debris slides. © 2014 The Author(s)

    A field experiment for calibrating landslide time-of-failure prediction functions

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    Over the last decades, time-of-failure semi-empirical prediction functions have been developed and applied to different landslides with mixed results. In this study, a field experiment was carried out to calibrate these functions with the simultaneous consideration of small-size landslides and landslides that occur on slopes modified by human activities. Four years of continuous monitoring using an integrated platform consisting of both traditional sensors (i.e., inclinometers, piezometers, load cells, topographic measurement) and innovative remote-sensing equipment (i.e., Terrestrial SAR Interferometer) resulted in the collection of a notably large amount of data. Several landslides affecting different slopes (i.e., cut slopes, cut slopes covered by spritz-beton and slopes stabilised by anchored bulkheads) were observed as part of the experiment, thus facilitating the inference of detailed information for the pre-failure behaviour. Nine landslides were back-analysed, thus allowing for calibration of the failure prediction functions for different types of slopes. From these observations, it was found that events occurring on slopes modified by human interventions could be effectively predicted using the Voight function if suitable parameters are used As a general remark, the landslides that originate from cut slopes in natural terrain behave similar to large landslides reported in the literature (similar values of A and alpha) while landslides that originate from cut slopes covered by spritz-beton and slopes stabilised by anchored bulkheads show alpha values that are significantly lower and A values that are significantly higher than those of landslides on natural terrains. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserve
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