1,721,108 research outputs found

    Hierarchical space-time modelling of epidemic dynamics: an application to measles outbreaks

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    How infectious diseases spread in space and time is an important question that has received considerable theoretical attention. There are, however, few empirical studies to support theoretical approaches, because data is scarce. In this paper we propose to model the epidemic spread of measles in the London boroughs between 1960 and 1970 by an extension of the Kriged Kalman filter (Mardia et al., 1998) to count data. Results show the flexibility of our approach in describing complex spatio-temporal dynamic

    A note on the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator for the scalar Skew-normal distribution

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    We consider likelihood based inference for the parameter of a skewnormal distribution. One of the problems shown by this model is the singularity of the Fisher information matrix when skewness is absent. We derive the rate of convergence to the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator and study an alternative parameterization which overcomes problems related to the singularity of the information matrix
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