1,721,046 research outputs found
Replication Data for: "Epidemic Shocks and Civil Violence: Evidence from Malaria Outbreaks in Africa"
No full textCervellati, Matteo, Esposito, Elena, and Sunde, Uwe, (2022) “Epidemic Shocks and Civil Violence: Evidence from Malaria Outbreaks in Africa.” Review of Economics and Statistics 104:4, 780–796
Democratizing for peace? The effect of democratization on civil conflicts
No full textThis paper provides an empirical investigation of the effect of democratization on the risk of civil conflicts. Results for the countries democratizing during the Third Wave suggest that democratization has a negative overall effect on conflicts. Democratization does not affect conflicts for territories, but significantly reduces internal civil conflict over the control of the government. The effect sets in after democratization and appears to be persistent. The democratization scenario in terms of violence during the transition has an effect on subsequent conflict for government. Countries with a violent transition to democracy experience shorter spells of peace than countries with a peaceful transition to democracy. Similar findings emerge for the occurrence of coups
The Economic and Demographic Transition, Mortality, and Comparative Development
Full text linkThis paper develops a quantifiable unified growth theory to investigate cross-country comparative development. The calibrated model can replicate the historical development dynamics in forerunner countries like Sweden and the patterns in cross-country panel data. The findings suggest a crucial role of the timing of the onset of the economic and demographic transition for explaining differences in development. Country-specific differences in extrinsic mortality are a candidate explanation for differences in the timing of the take-off across countries and the resulting worldwide comparative development patterns, including the bimodal distribution of the endogenous variables across countries
The Demographic Transition and Long-Run Development
No full textThis chapter gives an overview of the role of the demographic transition and the non-linear dynamics in fertility
and mortality associated with this transition, for long-run development. The Chapter discusses the implications
for the transition from stagnation to sustained economic growth, to channels linking health improvements to
long-term development, and insights for the secular stagnation debate. The chapter finally provides a brief
overview of the chapters contained in this volume
The effect of life expectancy on education and population dynamics
No full textThe demographic transition represents a critical turning point for population dynamics and economic development. As a consequence, the effects of life expectancy on education and population dynamics are expected to change across different stages of demographic development. This paper tests this hypothesis empirically by exploiting exogenous within-country reductions in mortality as a result of the epidemiological transition after 1940 that have been applied in recent studies on the causal effects of life expectancy for income growth. The results document a pronounced heterogeneity, and relevant non-linearities, of the effects of life expectancy on schooling and population dynamics at different stages of the demographic transition
Civil conflict, democratization, and growth: Violent democratization as critical juncture
No full textIn this paper, we provide an empirical investigation of the interaction between violent conflicts, democratization, and growth in the “third wave” of democratization. The effect of democratization is weakened when taking into account the incidence of civil conflict. The results show that the growth effect of democratization is heterogeneous and depends on the democratization scenario. Peaceful transitions to democracy have a significant positive effect on growth that is even larger than reported previously in the literature, whereas violent transitions have no, or even negative, growth effects
Life expectancy, schooling, and lifetime labor supply: Theory and evidence revisited
Full text linkThis paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the role of life expectancy for optimal schooling and lifetime labor supply. The results of a simple prototype Ben-Porath model with age-specific survival rates show that an increase in lifetime labor supply is not a necessary, nor a sufficient, condition for greater life expectancy to increase optimal schooling. The observed increase in survival rates during working ages that follows from the rectangularization of the survival function is crucial for schooling and labor supply. The empirical results suggest that the relative benefits of schooling have been increasing across cohorts of US men born 1840-1930. A simple quantitative analysis shows that a realistic shift in the survival function can lead to an increase in schooling and a reduction in lifetime labor hours
Are All Democracies Equally Good? The Role of Interactions between Political Environment and Inequality for Rule of Law
No full textThis paper studies the endogenous evolution of economic and political institutions and the interdependencies with the rocess of economic development. Favorable economic institutions in form of a state of law and the absence of societal conflict are not assumed exogenously under certain political systems, but arise in equilibrium. The model delivers several new results. Efficient oligarchies can emerge in equilibrium and persist supported by all groups. Democracies are neither necessary nor sufficient to implement a state of law, even if they may be instrumental. A taxonomy of politico-economic equilibria shows the evolution of institutions depending on economic inequality. We find a non monotonic relationship between inequality and state of law. The model allows to analytically characterize the dynamic emergence of different institutions, highlighting the role of natural resource abundance and inequality for endogenous institutional change and the timing of democratic transitions. The model can generate episodes of reversal of fortunes as result of endogenous institutional change. A simple simulation illustrates the evolution of the economy
Pathogens, Weather Shocks, and Civil Conflicts
Full text linkThis paper documents a statistically strong and quantitatively relevant effect of high exposure to infectious diseases on the risk of civil conflicts. The analysis exploits data on the presence and endemicity of multi-host vector-transmitted pathogens in a country, which is closely related to geo-climatic conditions due to the specific features of these pathogens. Exploiting withincountry variation over time shows that this effect of pathogen exposure is significantly amplified by weather shocks. The results indicate health shocks and the outbreak of epidemics as a potential channel, while we find no evidence that the effect works through alternative channels like income, population dynamics, or institutions
Epidemic Shocks and Civil Violence: Evidence from Malaria Outbreaks in Africa
Full text linkThis paper presents the first systematic investigation of the effect of epidemic shocks on civil violence. The identification exploits exogenous within cell×year variation in conditions that are suitable for malaria transmission using a panel database with month-by-month variation at a resolution of 1° × 1° latitude/longitude for Africa. Suitable conditions increase civil violence in areas with populations susceptible to epidemic outbreaks. The effect is immediate, related to the acute phase of the epidemic, and largest during short harvesting seasons of subsistence crops. Genetic immunities and anti-malaria policies attenuate the effect. The results deliver new insights for prevention and attenuation policies and for potential consequences of climate change
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