1,720,969 research outputs found
Seismic Risk Analysis of Revenue Losses, Gross Regional Product and transportation systems.
Full text linkNatural threats like earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis have shown seri- ous impacts on communities. In the past, major earthquakes in the United States like Loma Prieta 1989, Northridge 1994, or recent events in Italy like L’Aquila 2009 or Emilia 2012 earthquake emphasized the importance of pre- paredness and awareness to reduce social impacts. Earthquakes impacted businesses and dramatically reduced the gross regional product. Seismic Hazard is traditionally assessed using Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Anal- ysis (PSHA). PSHA well represents the hazard at a specific location, but it’s unsatisfactory for spatially distributed systems. Scenario earthquakes overcome the problem representing the actual distribution of shaking over a spatially distributed system. The performance of distributed productive systems during the recovery process needs to be explored.
Scenario earthquakes have been used to assess the risk in bridge networks and the social losses in terms of gross regional product reduction. The proposed method for scenario earthquakes has been applied to a real case study: Treviso, a city in the North East of Italy. The proposed method for scenario earthquakes requires three models: one representation of the sources (Italian Seismogenic Zonation 9), one attenuation relationship (Sa- betta and Pugliese 1996) and a model of the occurrence rate of magnitudes (Gutenberg Richter). A methodology has been proposed to reduce thou- sands of scenarios to a subset consistent with the hazard at each location. Earthquake scenarios, along with Mote Carlo method, have been used to simulate business damage. The response of business facilities to earthquake has been obtained from fragility curves for precast industrial building. Fur- thermore, from business damage the reduction of productivity has been simulated using economic data from the National statistical service and a proposed piecewise “loss of functionality model”. To simulate the economic process in the time domain, an innovative businesses recovery function has been proposed.
The proposed method has been applied to generate scenarios earthquakes at the location of bridges and business areas. The proposed selection method- ology has been applied to reduce 8000 scenarios to a subset of 60. Subse- quently, these scenario earthquakes have been used to calculate three system performance parameters: the risk in transportation networks, the risk in terms of business damage and the losses of gross regional product. A novel model for business recovery process has been tested. The proposed model has been used to represent the business recovery process and simulate the effects of government aids allocated for reconstruction.
The proposed method has efficiently modeled the seismic hazard using scenario earthquakes. The scenario earthquakes presented have been used to assess possible consequences of earthquakes in seismic prone zones and to increase the preparedness. Scenario earthquakes have been used to sim- ulate the effects to economy of the impacted area; a significant Gross Regional Product reduction has been shown, up to 77% with an earthquake with 0.0003 probability of occurrence. The results showed that limited funds available after the disaster can be distributed in a more efficient way
An integrated procedure for management of bridge networks in seismic areas
Full text linkIn this work an integrated procedure for the evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of bridges included in the transportation network and a rational resource allocation for retrofitting with the aim of minimizing the consequences of an earthquake is shown at a network level. Both normal service and post-earthquake emergency conditions are considered as possible scenarios. The final result consists in global delay in the network versus seismic action occurring time. An iterative procedure finally defines the priority for optimal budget allocation for retrofitting. The procedure has been tested on a wide bridge network located in the North-eastern part of Italy
Planning and management of actions on transportation system to address extraordinary events in post-emergency situations. A multidisciplinary approach
Full text linkThe main aim of the work is the design and implementation of an integrated procedure for the identification of optimum action plans (satisfying expenditure constraints) on a road transportation system to minimize the impact produced on it by extraordinary events, in particular earthquakes. The attention is focused particularly on post-emergency situations related to effects on transportation networks caused by extraordinary events; the effects are considered with reference to bridges. Addressing the transition from physical effects to functional effects (relating to mobility) on the single infrastructure element calls for a commitment which has appeared challenging in view of the strongly innovative content involved. The analysis process consists in different steps. At the first step an effort must be made in order to acquire knowledge about the characteristics of the set of infrastructures (bridges) and about a set of possible seismic scenarios. By using fragility curves of bridges, the damage state of the network links (in which bridges are included) can be obtained. By making a series of hypotheses on how a bridge damage state can influence links’ functionality, a set of “damaged” (lower capacity) road network models has been carried out. At the next step of the process, interaction between transportation supply and demand, by way of static or dynamic traffic assignment models, allows to measure the performance of the system, or rather, its overall response to extraordinary events using suitable performance indexes. Then, the network risk curve (probability of the seismic action vs. transportation system performance indexes) is derived. At the end of the process a cost-effective retrofit strategy has been identified. The procedure has been applied to a test network at regional scale in the north-east of Italy
A parametric study on the fragility of typical existing concrete bridges in seismic areas
No full textVulnerabilità sismica e priorità di adeguamento di ponti nell’ambito di reti di trasporto
No full textA unified framework for earthquake risk assessment of transportation networks and gross regional product
No full textNatural threats like earthquakes, hurricanes or tsunamis have had serious impacts on communities. In the past, major earthquakes in the United States like Loma Prieta 1989, Northridge 1994, or recent events in Italy like L’Aquila 2009 or Emilia 2012 emphasized the importance of preparedness and awareness to reduce social impacts. In addition to that, earthquake damaged businesses dramatically reduced the gross regional product. Generating scenario earthquakes in a proper way is important to suitably assess the risk in bridge networks and social losses in terms of gross regional product reduction. Seismic hazard is traditionally assessed by means of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). Although PSHA well represents the hazard at a specific location it is not suitable for spatially distributed systems. Scenario earthquakes can overcome this problem; they represent the actual distribution of ground shaking for a spatially distributed system while being hazard consistent. In this work a methodology to generate scenario earthquakes has been proposed using a novel approach with the aim of being the basic step for investigating possible earthquake consequences in seismic areas and contributing to reduce losses
Exploring the economic consequences of the risk induced by earthquakes
No full textWhen the ground shakes people feel threatened; they are relocated in shelters, a diffuse damage can be seen in the territory, the infrastructures are damaged and need to be repaired, the productive buildings are unusable so the production is stopped and the revenues are affected. Is there a way to quantify in monetary terms the effect of an earthquake to productive systems? The present paper presents a first approach to the problem and proposes some tentative models to address specific issues arising form the problem
Reliability analysis and in-field investigation of a r.c. bridge over river Adige in Verona, Italy
No full textIn this paper will be presented an assessment procedure done on an existing historical r.c. bridge in Verona.
A reliability analysis has been performed with a f.e. model considering stochastic data about materials. An in- situ survey has been done to collect data about materials, geometry and damage. Finally, a modal analysis has been carried out to identify the bridge structural system and assess damage. Information about material damage, serviceability and safety has been retrieved
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