122 research outputs found

    Learning from the other side: how social networks influence turnout in a referendum campaign

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    Interpersonal discussion is considered to be one of the most influential sources of opinion formation and behaviour. Yet, an unresolved puzzle remains within the literature: while some studies show that discussion with not like-minded citizens depresses political participation, other studies, on the contrary, indicate that the same type of interpersonal discussion can foster political engagement. In this study, we address this unresolved democratic dilemma for the first time in a context of direct democracy, by focussing on the campaign leading to the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum. Specifically, we pay particular attention to the interaction between network diversity, ambivalence, and political knowledge. The findings show that frequent interactions with not like-minded citizens increase turnout. The results based on regression models and structural equation modelling indicate that this positive effect is channelled mainly through political learning, since network diversity increases factual knowledge about the constitutional reform, which in turn is associated with an increase in turnout. We do not find a significant effect of network diversity on ambivalence, as predicted by previous studies. These findings have important implications for deliberative theories and campaign strategies

    Who is afraid of a change? Ideological differences in support for the status quo in direct democracy

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    Research has documented that individuals display a bias for preserving the status quo across numerous domains of decision-making, including elections for candidates and referendums. Yet, it is not clear whether thinking about a political reform as a change to the status quo actually makes voters less likely to support it. We investigate this possibility in a referendum campaign, in which we prime a representative sample of voters with a “change cue” evoking the modification of the status quo related to a proposed reform. Our findings show that support for a referendum proposal decreases when voters consider that it will change the status quo, but only among right-wing voters. The effect is stronger among less knowledgeable voters on the right (but not on the left) of the political spectrum. Furthermore, we find that the priming manipulation has no effect in the presence of campaign arguments, thus suggesting that voters might discard peripheral cues when substantial policy information is available. These findings have relevant implications for the goal of achieving political change in democratic politics, and highlight the key role of ideology in moderating the status-quo bias in political decision-making

    Taking cues from the government: heuristic versus systematic processing in a constitutional referendum

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    One of the main criticisms of direct democracy is that it places excessive demands on voters. Are citizens competent enough to vote directly on policy issues? When stakes are high, do citizens mainly follow elites’ signals or do they decide in line with their issue preferences? This article addresses these questions in a multi-method setting by combining observational and experimental data from an original three-wave panel survey conducted during the 2016 Italian constitutional referendum. In particular, Finite Mixture Models are employed to model voters’ heterogeneous strategies of information processing. Findings show that heuristic voting based on government evaluation prevails over policy-related voting. More specifically, less politically sophisticated and partisan voters relied on government assessment as a heuristic, while sophisticated and independent voters based their decisions mostly on their assessment of the reform. Implications for the question of citizens’ competence in direct democracy are discussed

    Relating quarks and leptons with the T7 flavour group

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    In this letter we present a model for quarks and leptons based on T7 as flavour symmetry, predicting a canonical mass relation between charged leptons and down-type quarks proposed earlier. Neutrino masses are generated through a Type-I seesaw mechanism, with predicted correlations between the atmospheric mixing angle and neutrino masses. Compatibility with oscillation results leads to lower bounds for the lightest neutrino mass as well as for the neutrinoless double beta decay rates, even for normal neutrino mass hierarchy

    Predicting leptonic CP violation in the light of Daya Bay result on theta13

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    In the light of the recent Daya Bay result θ13DB=8.8±0.8\theta_{13}^{\mathrm{DB}}=8.8^{\circ}\pm0.8^{\circ}, we reconsider the model presented in Meloni et al. (J. Phys. G 38:015003, 2011), showing that, when all neutrino oscillation parameters are taken at their best fit values of Schwetz et al. (New J. Phys. 10:113011, 2008) and where θ13=θ13DB\theta_{13}=\theta_{13}^{\mathrm{DB}}, the predicted values of the CP phase are δ≈±π/4
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