73 research outputs found
Mythisation of time and space in novel Dolina Issy of Czesław Miłosz
No full textDolina Issy to powieść, w której Czesław Miłosz zawarł szereg tropów wiodących do jego własnej biografii. Fascynujące wydaje się podjęcie kwestii, na ile Tomasz, główny bohater utworu, tożsamy jest Miłoszowi, a na ile zaś stanowi literacką kreację. W Dolinie Issy możemy wyróżnić kilka rodzajów autobiografizmów, które znakomicie obrazują relację pomiędzy autorem – narratorem i bohaterem. Spaja ich swoisty mit sielankowego dzieciństwa, jakie noblista wiódł nad brzegiem Niewiaży – pierwowzoru ziem Doliny Issy. Mit ten ściśle łączy się z problematyką czasu i przestrzeni, nad którymi ostatecznie góruje akt doświadczania. W swoim artykule pragnę udowodnić, iż czytanie Doliny Issy w kontekście autobiograficznym jest nie tylko sensowne, ale wręcz stanowi swoisty klucz do zrozumienia samego Czesława Miłosza.Dolinna Issy is a novel in which Czesław Miłosz has included series of clues leading to his own biography. It seems interesting to take on the question to what extent Tomasz – the main character of composition – is identical to Miłosz and to what extent he is only a literary creation. In Dolina Issy we may distinguish several types of autobiographisms that perfectly illustrate the relationships between of author, narrator and the character in novel. They are joined by specific myth of idyllic childhood, which The Nobel Prize laureate had at the Niewiaża riverside – the prototype of the lands of Issa Valley. This myth is closely connected with the problem of time and space – dimensions dominated by act of experiencing. In my article I want to prove that reading the Dolina Issy in the autobiographical context is not only sensible but it is also the point to understand the essence of Miłosz
Modelling the prevalence of Down syndrome with applications of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods
No full textBayesian projections: What are the effects of excluding data from younger age groups?
No full textBayesian age-period-cohort models are used increasingly to project cancer incidence and mortality rates. Data for younger age groups for which rates are low are often discarded from the analysis. The authors explored the effect of excluding these data, in terms of the precision and accuracy of projections, for selected cancer mortality data sets. Projections were made by using a generalized Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Smoothing was applied to each time scale to reduce random variation between adjacent parameter estimates. The sum of squared standardized residuals was used to assess the accuracy of projections, and 90% credible intervals were calculated to assess precision. For the data sets considered, inclusion of all age groups in the analysis provided more precise age-standardized and age-specific projections as well as more accurate age-specific projections for younger age groups. An overall improvement in the accuracy of age-standardized rates was demonstrated for males but not females, which may suggest that analysis of the full data set is beneficial when projecting cancer rates with strong cohort effects. Copyright © 2005 by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved
Using the Bristol City Council Quality of Life Survey (2011-2013) – Preliminary analysis of life satisfaction and recommendations for further analyses
No full textThe purpose of this report is to explore the utility of the Bristol Quality of Life (QoL) Survey for measuring levels of life satisfaction (as a measure of well-being and mental health) in Bristol’s population aged 55 and over. An earlier report examined the variables available to measure levels of physical activity. This report focuses on life satisfaction and its association with physical activity and other variables. Life satisfaction was higher for women (73.5%) than for men (72.2%), higher amongst non-BME (Black Minority Ethnic) (73.4%) than for BME (63.3%) respondents and highest in the most affluent North & West (Inner) sub-locality (81.1%) and lowest in Inner City (East) (67.6%). Across age groups, life satisfaction rose from 68.3% overall for those aged 55-59, through the 60-64 age group (72.8%), remained around 75% through ages 65 to 84 before falling again to 66.5% for those aged 85-89 and to a low of 65.4% overall for those aged 90+. There was an association between life satisfaction and physical activity, with 76.7% of those that undertook moderate physical exercise at least once per week reporting positive life satisfaction, compared with 56.4% of those who took moderate exercise less than once per week. This held across all age groups studied here (55-59 up to 90+). Life satisfaction amongst those who remained physically active at age 85-89 was high (78.3% for men and 78.8% for women). Life satisfaction amongst the least active (moderate exercise less than once per week) was only 46.7% among men in age group 85-89 and 49.4% for women. General health in the past 12 months was positively associated with life satisfaction, while having a limiting long-term illness, having had an accidental fall in the last 12 months and being underweight or obese were all associated with lower levels of life satisfaction. There is a negative association between deprivation and both life satisfaction and physical activity. Social interaction (e.g. meeting family and friends), neighbourhood satisfaction and a sense of belonging to the neighbourhood were positively associated with life satisfaction. Reporting that ‘something prevents me leaving that house’ and feeling unsafe outdoors were associated negatively with life satisfaction
Un canton « rouge » en Autunois aux XIXe et XXe siècles : Issy-l'Évêque.
No full textThe author describes the economic and social structures of the canton of Issy-1'Evêque where the parish priest Carion made a name for himself in 1790; these structures were to last throughout the nineteenth century: it was a poor and isolated area marked both by the overwhelming supremacy of great land holdings in the hands of local and often absolutist notables and by the poverty not only of the day laborers but also of the main group of tenant farmers constantly under pressure from the fermiers généraux. Physical destitution, illiteracy, and purely routine religion complete the picture which was only to change much later. For this impoverished peasantry, political mobilization was a possibility and became a reality during the crisis of 1848 during which a kind of left-wing tradition began to develop led by a certain number of local notables. The author weighs on one hand the influence of such social conditions and, on the other, the influence of the memory of the French Revolution on the community's political option.Le canton d'Issy-l'Évêque, où s'était illustré le curé Carion en 1790 est présenté dans les structures économiques et sociales qui prévalent encore durant le XIXe siècle : pays pauvre, isolé, marqué par la prépondérance écrasante d'une grande propriété de notables souvent absentéistes, et par la misère non seulement des journaliers mais du groupe essentiel des métayers, pressurés par les « fermiers généraux ». Misère physique, analphabétisme, religion routinière complètent un tableau qui ne se modifie que tardivement. Cette paysannerie misérable est susceptible de se mobiliser, ainsi lors de la crise de 1848. Une tradition de gauche se développe à partir de cette date, encadrée par un certain nombre de notables. L'auteur pose la question du poids respectif des conditions sociales qui expliquent cette option collective, et de la mémoire de la Révolution Française.Lévêque Pierre. Un canton « rouge » en Autunois aux XIXe et XXe siècles : Issy-l'Évêque.. In: Annales historiques de la Révolution française, n°274, 1988. Le Morvan révolutionnaire. Recherches sur les origines des traditions politiques en Morvan (XVIIIe et XIXe siècle) pp. 409-426
“Monstrous Betrayal”: On the Sources of the Controversy around the Film Adaptation of "Dolina Issy" ["The Issa Valey"]
No full textThe author attempts to identify the origins of the famous argument between Miłosz and Konwicki about the film adaptation of Dolina Issy. Konwicki created a film which, although it is an adaptation of the novel, clearly belongs to his own creative output, focused on axiological uncertainty after The Second World War. Konwicki’s work is a record of a quest for enduring points of reference, a quest conducted with realisation that such points cannot be found by a person who feels lost in the modern world. Such a world-view was not acceptable for Miłosz, and it is difficult to expect that the poet would accept an adaptation of his novel created from such a point of view.Poznańskie Studia Polonistyczne. Seria Literack
A mixture model for rounded data
No full textThe paper focuses on the problem of data heaping that arises when measurements are recorded to varying degrees of precision. The work is motivated by an application in foetal medicine where measurements obtained from ultrasound images are rounded to varying numbers of decimal places causing heaping at integer values. We demonstrate the dangers of ignoring heaping before presenting a case-study of the ultrasound measurements. A mixture model, in which the different components represent different levels of rounding, is used for the heaping process. We illustrate a range of graphical posterior predictive checks to assess the fit of the model and we explore some extensions of the model. We adopt a Bayesian approach implemented by using the Gibbs sampler
Estimating birth prevalence of Down's syndrome
No full textBACKGROUND: Estimates of maternal age-specific prevalence of Down's syndrome are needed for the assessment of environmental factors, for counselling and monitoring screening programmes. The estimates should relate to populations of women who have not received prenatal screening. This is normally achieved by using data collected before the widespread use of screening. The problem of under-ascertainment in some data-sets has been recognised in the literature, but has not been dealt with satisfactorily in the statistical models used to estimate live-birth prevalence.METHODS: In this paper we develop a model that takes explicit account of under-ascertainment and apply this model to data from nine published studies. The primary aim of our analysis is to provide an improved model for live-birth prevalence. A secondary aim is to examine the ascertainment rates in the nine studies.RESULTS: The proposed model provides a good fit to all but one of the nine studies, although exclusion of this study does not affect the estimated risks. The estimate of risk weighted across the maternal age distribution is 1.41 in 1000 live-births [90% confidence interval (CI) 1.37-1.49].DISCUSSION: Comparing this figure with those obtained from published rate schedules suggests that the proposed model predicts rates that are some 10% higher than those obtained when ascertainment is assumed to be complete in all studies. The predicted rates are similar to those calculated when only those studies known to have high levels of acertainment are included
Application of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to modelling birth prevalence of Down syndrome
No full textData collected before the routine application of prenatal screening are of unique value in estimating the natural live-birth prevalence of Down syndrome. However, much of these data are from births from over 20 years ago and they are of uncertain quality. In particular, they are subject to varying degrees of underascertainment. Published approaches have used ad hoc corrections to deal with this problem or have been restricted to data sets in which ascertainment is assumed to be complete. In this paper we adopt a Bayesian approach to modelling ascertainment and live-birth prevalence. We consider three prior specifications concerning ascertainment and compare predicted maternal-age-specific prevalence under these three different prior specifications. The computations are carried out by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in which model parameters and missing data are sampled
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