1,721,001 research outputs found
The attraction of inward investment to Scotland : submission to the Select Committee on Scottish Affairs
No full textIt is desirable to maximise the inflow of investment to Scotland. Over the next few years indigenous investment will not be sufficient to prevent a considerable rise in unemployment. To ameliorate this increase, the attraction of inward investment ought therefore to be a prime target of policy. This paper addresses the question of whether the present institutional structure ensures that the aim of maximising this inflow of capital is achieved
Population, employment and labour force projections
No full textIn a previous issue of this Commentary (July 1977, Vol.3. No.1) some projections of Scottish population and labour force were made. Required rates of new job creation were evaluated, given a target of 5% unemployment by 1981. This present article updates the earlier study, extending it in two main directions. Firstly, the migration forecasts, rather than spanning a range of possible outcomes, are derived directly from an econometric forecast of the Scottish economy over the next few years. Secondly, the projection period over which the forecasts are made is extended considerably; to 1993 as far as population and labour supply are concerned. The paper is divided into two sections, the first dealing with the methodology underlying the projections, while the second discusses results and implications
Review of the quarter's economic trends [April 1980]
No full textThis brief paper surveys recent world and UK economic data and reveals that there are some signs to suggest that the world economy will withstand the 1979 oil price shock better than it did in 1973/74. The main difference is that the 1979 price rise was not super-imposed on as severe an inflation as that which occurred on the previous occasion. The present rate of increase in the world prices should not reach the levels of the last cycle when the twelve month increase in manufacturing prices peaked at 23%. Advance warning by US economists that 1979 was going to be a year of difficulty did not go unnoticed by businessmen in that country who took steps in 1978 to avoid a repetition of the inventory boom and bust cycle which had proved so costly in the recession of 1973/74. Also, consumer expectations are adjusting towards a continuing rise in the price of oil. In the UK real GDP is expected to fall by 2½% from mid-year 1980. Thereafter, it is assumed to grow at an average annual rate of 1% for the next four years
Foreign investment in Scotland
No full textA significant feature of the UK economy throughout the post-war period has been the growth in direct foreign investment in manufacturing industries. For the host nation the main benefits are employment creation, income generation and import reduction or export expansion. Scotland has been particularly successful in attracting the lion's inward investment for example in the period 1945- 1965 a total of 108,500 jobs were created by foreign firms setting up manufacturing units in the despite its size, obtained 46,221 (42.6%), whereas the second most SE England, gained only 16,926 (15.6%). The reasons for this success have been attributed primarily to a combination of the availability of labour in Scotland, the financial inducements offered by central government as part of regional policy and, the undoubted attraction of the environment, notably of course golf courses, for foreign businessmen. This brief paper explores the nature of Scotland's direct foreign investment and the reasons for its success
The Scottish economy [April 1980]
No full textWith GDP in the UK likely to fall by between 1% and 3% during 1980, it would be unrealistic to expect a substantially different performance in Scotland. Output will fall, and this fall is likely to be concentrated, once more, in the manufacturing sector. At present, three main problems confront manufacturers. Firstly, the strength of sterling is limiting the ability of exporters to compete in international markets and of producers for the domestic market to resist cheap imports in home markets. Other things being equal, one might expect sterling's value to decline gradually during 1980, because of the UK's appreciably higher rate of inflation than its competitors. However, other things are unlikely to be equal. If political tension builds up in the Persian Gulf area, as seems likely, then currencies of those countries which are self-sufficient in energy will inevitably harden
Review of the quarter's economic trends [January 1980]
No full textMost commentaries which are being written at this time take a markedly pessimistic view of the economic prospects for the non-communist world over the next twelve months, and beyond. This view, reflected in the unprecedented rise in the price of gold, arises from uncertainty about the willingness or the ability of the United States to maintain the political framework within which the non-communist world economy has operated since the second World War and the fear of continuing rises in the price of oil. The UK economy is in recession. All GDP measures suggest a fall between the second and third quarters of last year, with output data suggesting the decline was as severe as 2% of GDP. The alternative measures of GDP present somewhat different pictures. Expenditure data imply that GDP in the first three quarters of 1979 was only marginally above that of the first half of 1978; the output measure, by contrast, puts the growth rate a full 1% higher. In both cases growth was due almost wholly to increased North Sea oil and gas production. During 1979 as a whole, GDP may have increased by perhaps 1% with most of this growth occurring in the second quarter
The Scottish economy [January 1980]
No full textThis Commentary has never gained a reputation for taking an optimistic view of the prospects for the Scottish economy. Unfortunately, its gloomier prognostications, on the whole, have turned out to be accurate. Examination of the evidence in this paper suggests that there is no reason to expect any reversal of Scotland's economic fortunes over the next six months. Unemployment will rise, output will stagnate and living standards are likely to fall. The short-term effects of current government policy are also likely to deepen the recession
Unemployment forecasts
No full textOne of the main features of this commentary since its inception in July 1975 has been its regular unemployment forecasts. Each issue has incorporated a prediction of Scottish unemployment six months ahead. Since these forecasts have been produced for some time, it is now reasonable to assess their performance. Specifically, in this note, two questions will be addressed: (1) firstly, how accurate were the forecasts in terms of conformity to the actual outturn? (2) secondly, is there any evidence of systematic bias in the forecasts? : that is, is there a tendency for the predictions to take too optimistic or too pessimistic a view of the future course of unemployment
The Scottish economy [July 1979]
No full textThe Scottish index of industrial production has now been revised to base 1975 = 100, following a similar revision to the UK index. The index for all industries (excluding oil) reveals the very poor performance of the Scottish economy during 1978. Between the first and fourth quarters of 197S, this index fell from 100.7 to 99.5. Thus, Scottish production in the final quarter of 1978, a year in which the UK economy was thought to have staged some sort of recovery, was actually less than average quarterly production in 1975. In the UK, industrial production (excluding oil) rose from a n index level of 102.2 to 103.4 between the first and fourth quarters of 1978 - a considerably better performance than that in Scotland
Retail and distributive trades in Scotland
No full textHistorically the Scottish economy has been considered a region dependent on heavy manufacturing industry. For some time these industries have been contracting and today service sector employment accounts for approximately 58% of total employment in Scotland. Over the decade of the 1970's services have risen to this level from around 51%. Despite this growth performance statistics relating to service sector activities are not so readily available as those for manufacturing industries, which in 1979 accounted for only 29% of total employment in Scotland. This Brief will examine a major component of the service sector - retailing and distribution
- …
