45 research outputs found
Global knowledge gaps in the prevention and control of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) virus
No full textThe significant economic impacts of bovine viral diarrhoea (BVD) virus have prompted many countries worldwide to embark on regional or national BVD eradication programmes. Unlike other infectious diseases, BVD control is highly feasible in cattle production systems because the pathogenesis is well understood and there are effective tools to break the disease transmission cycle at the farm and industry levels. Coordinated control approaches typically involve directly testing populations for virus or serological screening of cattle herds to identify those with recent exposure to BVD, testing individual animals within affected herds to identify and eliminate persistently infected (PI) cattle, and implementing biosecurity measures such as double-fencing shared farm boundaries, vaccinating susceptible breeding cattle, improving visitor and equipment hygiene practices, and maintaining closed herds to prevent further disease transmission. As highlighted by the recent DISCONTOOLS review conducted by a panel of internationally recognized experts, knowledge gaps in the control measures are primarily centred around the practical application of existing tools rather than the need for creation of new tools. Further research is required to: (a) determine the most cost effective and socially acceptable means of applying BVD control measures in different cattle production systems; (b) identify the most effective ways to build widespread support for implementing BVD control measures from the bottom-up through farmer engagement and from the top-down through national policy; and (c) to develop strategies to prevent the reintroduction of BVD into disease-free regions by managing the risks associated with the movements of animals, personnel and equipment. Stronger collaboration between epidemiologists, economists and social scientists will be essential for progressing efforts to eradicate BVD from more countries worldwide
Ranking the effectiveness of worldwide COVID-19 government interventions
No full textAssessing the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to mitigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 is critical to inform future preparedness response plans. Here we quantify the impact of 6,068 hierarchically coded NPIs implemented in 79 territories on the effective reproduction number, Rt, of COVID-19. We propose a modelling approach that combines four computational techniques merging statistical, inference and artificial intelligence tools. We validate our findings with two external datasets recording 42,151 additional NPIs from 226 countries. Our results indicate that a suitable combination of NPIs is necessary to curb the spread of the virus. Less disruptive and costly NPIs can be as effective as more intrusive, drastic, ones (for example, a national lockdown). Using country-specific 'what-if' scenarios, we assess how the effectiveness of NPIs depends on the local context such as timing of their adoption, opening the way for forecasting the effectiveness of future interventions
The first worldwide maps of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) infection prevalence and respective mitigation programmes
No full textDiploma thesis - University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna - 2019The aim of this study was to collect information about the global distribution of BVD prevalence’s and implemented mitigation programmes using the literature and a questionnaire to provide as complete a picture of the worldwide BVD situation as possible. In total, 50 (30 %) of 167 countries responded to the questionnaire and provided usable data of prevalence’s and/or mitigation programmes. Once all predefined criteria had been met, 174 studies of the literature about BVD-programmes and 151 studies about vaccination were included. Both questionnaire and literature review covered 107 countries in total. The literature search dates to the 1960s and thus provides information about the chronological course of the worldwide disease prevalences. If the data collected here are compared with those of the WAHIS database of the OIE, a high degree of correspondence between the BVDV infections presented here and implemented intervention programs and the official reports of the countries to the WAHIS database can be established. However, the information collected in this diploma thesis could also be used to supplement the WAHIS database of the OIE. Furthermore, these results could not only be used to inform about the epidemiological situation but also about the implemented programs for a non-EU regulated animal disease such as BVD.Diplomarbeit - Veterinärmedizinische Universität Wien - 2019Diploma thesis - University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna - 2019Ziel dieser vorliegenden Diplomarbeit ist es, mithilfe der Literatur und eines Fragebogens Informationen über die weltweite Verbreitung der BVD-Prävalenz und der durchgeführten Kontroll- und/oder Bekämpfungsmaßnahmen zu sammeln, um ein möglichst vollständiges Bild der weltweiten BVD-Situation zu erhalten. Insgesamt beantworteten 50 (30%) von 167 Ländern den Fragebogen und lieferten verwendbare Daten zu Prävalenzen und/oder Kontroll- und/oder Bekämpfungsprogrammen. Nach Erfüllung aller vordefinierter Kriterien wurden 174 Literaturstudien bezüglich BVD- Kontroll- und/oder Bekämpfungsprogrammen und 151 Literaturstudien bezüglich Impfungen einbezogen. Der Fragebogen und die Studien aus der Literatur deckten insgesamt 107 Länder ab. Die Literaturrecherche geht bis in die 1960er Jahre zurück und bietet somit Informationen über den zeitlichen Verlauf der weltweiten Krankheitshäufigkeiten. Wenn die hier erhobenen Daten mit denen der WAHIS Datenbank der OIE vergleichen werden, so kann eine hohe Übereinstimmung zwischen den hier präsentierten BVDV Infektionen und implementierten Interventionsprogrammen und den offiziellen Meldungen der Länder an die WAHIS Datenbank festgestellt werden. Die gesammelten Informationen in der vorliegenden Diplomarbeit könnten jedoch auch dahingehend genutzt werden, um die WAHIS Datenbank der OIE zu ergänzen. Weiters könnten die hier präsentierten Ergebnisse dazu verwendet werden, um sich über die epidemiologische Situation und implementierten Programme für eine nicht EU regulierte Tierseuche wie BVD zu informieren.The aim of this study was to collect information about the global distribution of BVD prevalence’s and implemented mitigation programmes using the literature and a questionnaire to provide as complete a picture of the worldwide BVD situation as possible. In total, 50 (30 %) of 167 countries responded to the questionnaire and provided usable data of prevalence’s and/or mitigation programmes. Once all predefined criteria had been met, 174 studies of the literature about BVD-programmes and 151 studies about vaccination were included. Both questionnaire and literature review covered 107 countries in total. The literature search dates to the 1960s and thus provides information about the chronological course of the worldwide disease prevalences. If the data collected here are compared with those of the WAHIS database of the OIE, a high degree of correspondence between the BVDV infections presented here and implemented intervention programs and the official reports of the countries to the WAHIS database can be established. However, the information collected in this diploma thesis could also be used to supplement the WAHIS database of the OIE. Furthermore, these results could not only be used to inform about the epidemiological situation but also about the implemented programs for a non-EU regulated animal disease such as BVD
Application of Models for Safeguarding the Milk Supply Chain
No full textThe objective of this thesis was to develop a simulation model in order to identify actors and flows of goods, which can promote the spread of a hypothetical contamination in the dairy industry. Based on the model results, strategies to safeguard the milk supply chain were derived for decision-makers. The first step for creating a simulation model was to develop a conceptual model, in which the actors and the structural trade links between the actors are described. For quantifying these trade links a substantial amount of data about the real flow of goods in the dairy industry could be used. Based on the conceptual model, an economic model for predicting trade relations was newly combined with optimization algorithms. On the one hand, for simulating the spatial distribution of a hypothetical contamination, taking into account various flows of goods between the actors. The simulated damage situation was quantified in terms of the distinctive model parameters virulence, resistance and vulnerability of actors as well as the geographical range of a contamination. In particular, it was necessary to assess the impact of trade between the dairies on the spatial spread of a contamination. The basis for the carried out modeling formed 500 trade networks that represent 61.43% of the existing flows of goods of processed milk in Germany. These networks comprise varying trade relations between 294 milk producers, 80 dairies and 12,223 consumers. On the other hand, a management plan for decision-makers was designed, where surveillance measures for minimizing the size of damage were derived from. The model results indicate that actors and structures exist that promote the spread of a hypothetical contamination in the dairy industry. First, the risk for the consumer to be supplied with hypothetical contaminated milk is up to three times higher on average, if a trade between dairies exists, compared to the neglect of the trade. In this context, also the spread of contaminated milk through the milk producers can be up to four times higher on average. Second, under consideration of the predetermined scenario, the management plan shows that control measures should be introduced on 40% of the milk producers in order to minimize the damage.Anwendung von Modellen zur Sicherung der Milchversorgungskette Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit war es, ein Simulationsmodell zu entwickeln, um ausbreitungsfördernde Akteure und Warenströme für den Fall einer hypothetischen Kontamination in der Milchwirtschaft zu identifizieren. Basierend auf den Modellergebnissen wurden Strategien zur Sicherung der Milchversorgungskette für Entscheidungsträger abgeleitet. Der erste Schritt für die Erstellung eines Simulationsmodells war die Entwicklung eines konzeptionellen Modells, in dem die Akteure und die handelsstrukturellen Verknüpfungen zwischen den Akteuren beschrieben werden. Bei der Quantifizierung dieser Handelsbeziehungen konnte auf umfangreiche Datensätze über die realen Warenströme in der Milchwirtschaft zurückgegriffen werden. Aufbauend auf dem konzeptionellen Modell wurde im zweiten Schritt ein Modell aus der Wirtschaftswissenschaft zur Vorhersage von Handelsbeziehungen mit Optimierungsalgorithmen neu kombiniert, um einerseits die räumliche Ausbreitung einer hypothetischen Kontamination, unter Berücksichtigung divergierender Warenströme zwischen den Akteuren, zu simulieren. Die simulierte Schadenslage wurde durch die charakteristischen Modellgrößen Virulenz, Vulnerabilität und Resistenz der Akteure sowie die geografische Reichweite einer Kontamination quantifiziert. Insbesondere galt es, den Einfluss des Handels zwischen den Molkereien auf die räumliche Ausbreitung einer Kontamination abzuschätzen. Die Grundlage für die durchgeführte Modellierung bildeten 500 Handelsnetzwerke, die 61,43% der existierenden Warenflüsse von Konsummilch in Deutschland abbilden. Diese Netzwerke umfassen variierende Handelsbeziehungen zwischen 294 Milcherzeugern, 80 Molkereien und 12223 Konsumenten. Anderseits wurde ein Managementplan für Entscheidungsträger konzipiert, aus welchem Überwachungsmaßnahmen zur Minimierung der Schadenslage abgeleitet wurden. Die Modellergebnisse zeigen Akteure und Strukturen auf, die fördernd für die Ausbreitung einer hypothetischen Kontamination in der Milchwirtschaft sind. Zum einen kann bei stattfindendem Handel zwischen den Molkereien das Risiko für den Verbraucher im Mittel bis zu dreimal höher sein mit der hypothetisch kontaminierten Milch beliefert zu werden bzw. die Ausbreitung durch den Milcherzeuger kann im Mittel bis zu viermal höher sein, als ohne diesen Handel. Zum anderen zeigt der erstellte Managementplan, dass unter dem vorgegebenen Szenario, Kontrollmaßnahmen für 40% der Milcherzeuger eingeleitet werden müssten, um die Schadenslage zu minimieren
Application of Models for Safeguarding the Milk Supply Chain
No full textThe objective of this thesis was to develop a simulation model in order to identify actors and flows of goods, which can promote the spread of a hypothetical contamination in the dairy industry. Based on the model results, strategies to safeguard the milk supply chain were derived for decision-makers.
The first step for creating a simulation model was to develop a conceptual model, in which the actors and the structural trade links between the actors are described. For quantifying these trade links a substantial amount of data about the real flow of goods in the dairy industry could be used. Based on the conceptual model, an economic model for predicting trade relations was newly combined with optimization algorithms. On the one hand, for simulating the spatial distribution of a hypothetical contamination, taking into account various flows of goods between the actors. The simulated damage situation was quantified in terms of the distinctive model parameters virulence, resistance and vulnerability of actors as well as the geographical range of a contamination. In particular, it was necessary to assess the impact of trade between the dairies on the spatial spread of a contamination. The basis for the carried out modeling formed 500 trade networks that represent 61.43% of the existing flows of goods of processed milk in Germany. These networks comprise varying trade relations between 294 milk producers, 80 dairies and 12,223 consumers. On the other hand, a management plan for decision-makers was designed, where surveillance measures for minimizing the size of damage were derived from.
The model results indicate that actors and structures exist that promote the spread of a hypothetical contamination in the dairy industry. First, the risk for the consumer to be supplied with hypothetical contaminated milk is up to three times higher on average, if a trade between dairies exists, compared to the neglect of the trade. In this context, also the spread of contaminated milk through the milk producers can be up to four times higher on average. Second, under consideration of the predetermined scenario, the management plan shows that control measures should be introduced on 40% of the milk producers in order to minimize the damage.Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit war es, ein Simulationsmodell zu entwickeln, um ausbreitungsfördernde Akteure und Warenströme für den Fall einer hypothetischen Kontamination in der Milchwirtschaft zu identifizieren. Basierend auf den Modellergebnissen wurden Strategien zur Sicherung der Milchversorgungskette für Entscheidungsträger abgeleitet. Der erste Schritt für die Erstellung eines Simulationsmodells war die Entwicklung eines konzeptionellen Modells, in dem die Akteure und die handelsstrukturellen Verknüpfungen zwischen den Akteuren beschrieben werden. Bei der Quantifizierung dieser Handelsbeziehungen konnte auf umfangreiche Datensätze über die realen Warenströme in der Milchwirtschaft zurückgegriffen werden. Aufbauend auf dem konzeptionellen Modell wurde im zweiten Schritt ein Modell aus der Wirtschaftswissenschaft zur Vorhersage von Handelsbeziehungen mit Optimierungsalgorithmen neu kombiniert, um einerseits die räumliche Ausbreitung einer hypothetischen Kontamination, unter Berücksichtigung divergierender Warenströme zwischen den Akteuren, zu simulieren. Die simulierte Schadenslage wurde durch die charakteristischen Modellgrößen Virulenz, Vulnerabilität und Resistenz der Akteure sowie die geografische Reichweite einer Kontamination quantifiziert. Insbesondere galt es, den Einfluss des Handels zwischen den Molkereien auf die räumliche Ausbreitung einer Kontamination abzuschätzen. Die Grundlage für die durchgeführte Modellierung bildeten 500 Handelsnetzwerke, die 61,43% der existierenden Warenflüsse von Konsummilch in Deutschland abbilden. Diese Netzwerke umfassen variierende Handelsbeziehungen zwischen 294 Milcherzeugern, 80 Molkereien und 12223 Konsumenten. Anderseits wurde ein Managementplan für Entscheidungsträger konzipiert, aus welchem Überwachungsmaßnahmen zur Minimierung der Schadenslage abgeleitet wurden. Die Modellergebnisse zeigen Akteure und Strukturen auf, die fördernd für die Ausbreitung einer hypothetischen Kontamination in der Milchwirtschaft sind. Zum einen kann bei stattfindendem Handel zwischen den Molkereien das Risiko für den Verbraucher im Mittel bis zu dreimal höher sein mit der hypothetisch kontaminierten Milch beliefert zu werden bzw. die Ausbreitung durch den Milcherzeuger kann im Mittel bis zu viermal höher sein, als ohne diesen Handel. Zum anderen zeigt der erstellte Managementplan, dass unter dem vorgegebenen Szenario, Kontrollmaßnahmen für 40% der Milcherzeuger eingeleitet werden müssten, um die Schadenslage zu minimieren
Economic assessment of food safety improvement in supply chains: clarification of conceptual issues : paper for 10th Wageningen International Conference on Chain and Network Management (WICaNeM 2012), 23.-25.05.2012 in Ede-Wageningen (Niederlande)
No full text
Decision support for risks managers in the case of deliberate food contamination: The dairy industry as an example
No full textAbstractDairy farms were identified, which can be included in a contingency plan set up to prevent or mitigate the consequences of deliberate contamination of a food supply chain. The deliberate introduction of a contamination into the supply chain of milk was simulated in a scenario where milk producers serve as the entry sources and consumers of milk represent the target to be affected by the contamination. It is shown that the entry sources have an impact on the damage caused, i.e. in terms of the number of consumers reached. A contingency plan is provided that contains a list of entry sources ranked according to their impact on the damage to consumers. To generate this list, a computer program was developed that simulates the impact of the contaminations on consumers via the trade of contaminated milk. Possible variations in the trade links between milk producers, dairies and consumers as well as between dairies are considered. It is investigated how these trade links alter the generated list of entry sources.The results indicate that, regardless of the actual milk trade flow, control measures should be introduced on 39% of the milk producers in order to minimize the damage. The identification of suitable entry sources may help risk managers to focus on these farms in a contingency plan that improves the sensitivity of control activities related to deliberate contamination
How to Measure Food Safety? A Review of Relevant Literature
No full textApproaches for prospective estimation of economic consequences until the last stage of the agri-food chain can rarely be found. Hence, we see the necessity of working out a conceptual assessment model for cost-benefit evaluation of food safety measures along the supply chain. Based on the findings of a thorough literature study a preliminary conceptual framework was developed. The purpose of the framework is to combine most relevant aspects of agri-food production, quality management, risk-analysis and regulatory impact assessment that have to be considered during in the course of an economic assessment of food safety
How to measure food safety : a review of the relevant literature
No full textApproaches for prospective estimation of economic consequences until the last stage of the agri-food chain can rarely be found. Hence, we see the necessity of working out a conceptual assessment model for cost-benefit evaluation of food safety measures along the supply chain. Based on the findings of a thorough literature study a preliminary conceptual framework was developed. The purpose of the framework is to combine most relevant aspects of agri-food production, quality management, risk-analysis and regulatory impact assessment that have to be considered during in the course of an economic assessment of food safety
