801 research outputs found
Il colore della povertà. Giancarlo Basili e l'arte della sottrazione.
No full textIl saggio cerca di evidenziare l'attività dello scenografo cinematografico Gianfranco Basili, in due delle sue realizzazioni più riuscite, al fianco di Nanni Moretti in La stanza del figlio, e accanto a Gianni Amelio, in Così ridevano
Asset prices and multiple reference points
No full textThis paper introduces multiple reference points in the traditional consumption-based asset pricing model of Lucas (1978). Following Barberis et al. (2001), we assume that an investor derives utility both from consumption and from changes (gains and losses) in the value of her financial wealth with respect to the initial endowment of a risky asset. We build upon Basili et al. (2005) and represent the investor's loss aversion over changes with respect to a set of reference points, instead of a single one, showing that this improves the descriptive ability of the cumulative prospect theory approach proposed by Barberis et al. (2001)
A rational decision rule in facing extreme events
No full textRisks induced by extreme events are characterized by small or ambiguous probabilities, catastrophic losses, or windfall gains. Through a new functional, that mimics the restricted Bayes-Hurwicz criterion within the Choquet expected utility approach, it is possible to represent the decision-maker behavior facing both risky (large and reliable probability) and extreme (small or ambiguous probability) events. A new formalization of the precautionary principle (PP) is shown and a new functional, which encompasses both extreme outcomes and expectation of all the possible results for every act, is claimed
Quasi-Option Value and Hard Uncertainty
No full textThe notion of intertemporal h-option value is introduced to extend to
environmental decision-making problems of the concept of quasi-option value, defined by Arrow and Fisher and Henry, whenever an individual faces imprecise information, or hard uncertainty, represented by a non-additive measure over events. Under hard uncertainty and irreversibility, the decision-maker faces the intertemporal h-option value, that is an uncertainty premium of preservation, which represents the gain from being able to learn about the future consequences of irreversible actions. The intertemporal h-option value is a correction factor that has to be taken into account in evaluating the total economic value of feasible actions
Risk Perception and Ambiguity in a Quantile Cumulative Prospect Theory
No full textThis chapter introduces a version of Cumulative Prospect Theory in a quantile utility model with multiple priors on possible events as proposed in [8]. The chapter analyzes the decision-maker’s risk and ambiguity perception facing ordinary and exterme events. It is showed a new functional that models asymmetric attitude with respect to ambiguity on extreme events (optimism respects windfall gains and pessimism respects catastrophic events) and the decision-maker’s attitude to consider maximization of entropy as a rule of inference. Finally, it is defined a simplified approach based on the epsilon contamination method of a probability distribution
Ambiguity and uncertainty in Ellsberg and Shackle
No full textThis paper argues that the similarities between Ellsberg's and Shackle's frameworks for discussing the limits of the probabilistic approach to decision theory are more important than usually admitted. The paper discusses the grounds on which the ambiguity surrounding the decision-maker in Ellsberg's urn experiments can be deemed analogous to the uncertainty faced by Shackle's entrepreneur taking 'crucial decisions'. The two authors' insights are assessed, and special attention is paid to the criteria for decision under uncertainty they put forward. The paper establishes a link between Ellsberg's and Shackle's perspectives and the non-additive probability approach of Gilboa and Schmeidler, an approach that offers an alternative to standard probability calculus, which can be of use to analyse both ambiguity and uncertainty. The comparison between Ellsberg and Shackle draws on an interpretation of Keynes's Treatise on Probability emphasising Keynes's rejection of both well-defined probability functions and maximisation as a guide to human conduct. It is shown that Keynes's viewpoint implies a reconsideration of the boundaries of probability theory that is in the same vein of Ellsberg's and Shackle's concern in the years of the consolidation of Savage's new probabilistic mainstream. Copyright The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved., Oxford University Press.
L'epidemia di CoVid-19: il principio di precauzione e i fallimenti istituzionali
No full textLa pandemia indotta da CoVid-19 o SARS-Cov2 non è un cigno nero, ma il risultato dell’errata gestione di un rischio catastrofico. Alla fine del secolo scorso, il principio di precauzione (PP) è stato proposto come criterio decisionale guida di fronte ai rischi catastrofici, ma sfortunatamente le istituzioni politiche nazionali e sovranazionali hanno disatteso questa raccomandazione. La mancata applicazione del PP ha prodotto il terrificante scenario di una pandemia, per cui non esistono farmaci specifici e tanto meno vaccini, che potrebbe provocare decine di milioni di morti, ingenti perdite economiche e scompaginare le istituzioni democratiche, sociali e politiche di molti paesi. La pandemia mostra come un fallimento istituzionale possa produrre conseguenze potenzialmente disastrose come un’apocalisse sanitaria
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