228 research outputs found
External Threats and Democratization from Military Rule: Burma 1988 and South Korea 1987
No full textWhat effect does the international security environment have on democratization? This paper argues that for militaries in power, sustained external threats facilitate democratization by credibly assuring the armed forces of continued influence after leaving office. It tests implications of this argument for 1) the opposition’s demands to the military during political crises over democratization, 2) the degree of the regime’s flexibility towards the opposition, 3) the level of violence during crises over democracy, and 4) the outcome of the crises. Utilizing a comparative case study of ruling militaries in Burma and South Korea, it finds strong support for each of the implications
International Conflict, Military Rule, and Violent Authoritarian Breakdown
No full textWhy do some transitions of power from military rule occur violently while others do not? What effect, if any, does the international security environment have on how violent breakdowns of authoritarian rule are? I argue a conflict-prone security environment ameliorates the commitment problem by ensuring an influential role for the military out of power. Therefore, when facing a domestic crisis in a threatening security environment, military leaders are more likely to peacefully cede power rather than wield violent measures to stay in office. Perhaps counter-intuitively, international conflicts thus lead to transitions of power from military rule that minimize violence and human costs. International conflicts do not have this moderating effect on other types of authoritarian rule.1
Limits of engagement? The sunshine policy, nuclear tests, and South Korean views of North Korea 1995–2013
No full textCan positive domestic messages generated by a foreign policy of engagement toward another country change public views regarding that state? How resistant are such changes to events that contradict the positive messages? I argue that while positive government messages about an adversary can significantly improve public opinion, highly consequential foreign policy events that contradict the messages influence public opinion at the cost of elites’ ability to shape it through their messages. Such differing effects can lead to a polarization of opinion when the content of the messages and the nature of events diverge from each other. Leveraging the unpredictability of North Korea’s foreign policy behavior, the South Korean government’s sustained policy of engagement toward it during the years 1998–2007, and North Korea’s first two nuclear tests to examine the relative impact of consequential foreign policy events and elite messages on public opinion, I find strong evidence consistent with this argument.1
Impossible Allies? When History and Security Collide: South Korea—Japan Relations in Context
No full textTo what degree are historical animosities regarding another country relevant for foreign policy in the face of changes in the security environment? This paper seeks to answer this question in the context of Korea–Japan relations. While pundits have pointed to the Korean public’s negative views of Japan—rooted in the colonial experience—as the explanation for the lack of cooperation between Japan and Korea in the security field, this paper argues changes in the level of common external threat can shift the public’s priorities from perceived historical injustices toward the needs of security. Surveys from the period when the security environment was shifting markedly—the final years of the Cold War (1986–1990)—reveal that public opinion regarding Japan relative to other powers in the region began to deteriorate only after the security environment improved, pointing to a limit to the extent that “history” trumps security.1
Sino-American Cooperation and The North Korean Nuclear Crisis: A Reassessment
No full textThere is near-consensus that China’s fears about the potential ramifications of regime collapse in
North Korea are behind its reluctance to apply measures that could halt their nuclear program. This paper argues that if uncertainty over the costs of North Korean collapse prevent cooperation between China and the US on North Korea’s nuclear program, reducing that uncertainty is the most direct, and perhaps effective, way to enhance Sino-American cooperation on the issue. It proposes an understanding between the US and China on a post-Kim regime Korea as the means to reduce that uncertainty. The benefits and possible elements of such an agreement as well as its obstacles are analyzed
The North Korean Regime, Domestic Instability and Foreign Policy
No full textThis paper presents a theory of how politics within personalist regimes influence foreign policy that has diverging implications from theories that have stressed the stabilizing effects of international conflict. It then tests whether North Korean conflict behavior under the personalist rule of the Kims is driven by the logic of enhancing domestic stability. Methodology— It assesses whether periods when the incentive to use conflicts to stabilize domestic rule were highest—during acute food shortages—are associated with higher levels of two measures of state violence. Findings— It finds little evidence to support the argument that domestic stability motivates North Korean use of violence abroad. Practical Implications— The article's findings suggest that concern about domestic stability is not the primary motivator of North Korean foreign policy. Originality/Value— This study utilizes acute food shortages as a measure of domestic instability, as well as two different measures of violence instigated by the North Korean state to test a key hypothesis regarding the relationship between domestic instability and external conflict.1
Preventing a Post-Collapse Crisis in North Korea: How to Avoid Famine and Mass Migration
No full text1
Gender, Events, and Elite Messages in Mass Opinion on Foreign Relations
No full textDo women respond in different ways to foreign policy events and elite messages compared to men? This article integrates the literature on gender and conflict with that on public opinion to examine how gender matters for the effect of elite messages and national security events on public opinion regarding a foreign adversary. We theorize that women’s opinions of an adversary are more likely than men’s to be influenced by national security events because of the higher value they attach to the costs of conflict. Our empirical analysis takes advantage of the natural setting of inter-Korea relations, which includes unpredictable, thus plausibly exogenous, real-world national security events instigated by North Korea and contrasting messages regarding North Korea by South Korea’s elites during this timeframe. Using annual survey data from a nationally representative sample of South Koreans about attitudes toward North Korea from 2003 to 2016, we find that foreign policy events of high consequence for national security have a greater negative impact on women’s opinions. This is the case even in the face of positive elite messages that contradict those events.1
Human Rights Versus National Security in Public Opinion on Foreign Affairs South Korea Views of North Korea 2008-2019
No full textWhile human rights are an integral part of democratic rule, the extent that public opinion in democracies prioritize human rights in foreign countries relative to other competing foreign policy priorities is not clear. This is particularly the case when a country poses a serious security threat and there are incentives to improve relations with the regime in power. To assess whether and how the public values human rights vis-a-vis national security in foreign affairs, this paper utilizes survey questions that capture the public's relative preferences between the two in South Korean public opinion regarding relations with North Korea. The findings shed light on the trade-off that exists in attempts to improve relations with a regime that is both a serious security threat and a perpetrator of grave human rights violations
sj-docx-1-afs-10.1177_0095327X241234021 – Supplemental material for How Mandatory Military Service Can Divide Rather Than Unite: Conscription, Gender, and Military Trust in South Korea 2003–2021
No full textSupplemental material, sj-docx-1-afs-10.1177_0095327X241234021 for How Mandatory Military Service Can Divide Rather Than Unite: Conscription, Gender, and Military Trust in South Korea 2003–2021 by Joonbum Bae and YuJung Julia Lee in Armed Forces & Society</p
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