1,721,054 research outputs found
High pressure and black clouds: Keynes and the frequentist theory of probability
No full textThe thesis of this paper is that Keynes wrote A Treatise on Probability in opposition to the frequentist theory of probability, systematised by John Venn, which denied any role for probability in decision theory. Keynes was interested in finding an alternative conception of probability that could be utilised as a guide of life. To analyse this point, the paper considers Keynes's criticisms of frequentist tradition in the two versions of his Fellowship dissertation, and in the published edition of his Treatise. Keynes's project is then illustrated with the famous example of whether or not to go out with one's umbrella in the situation in which the pressure is high and the clouds are black
Citation gaming induced by bibliometric evaluation: A country-level comparative analysis
Full text linkIt is several years since national research evaluation systems around the globe started making use of quantitative indicators to measure the performance of researchers. Nevertheless, the effects on these systems on the behavior of the evaluated researchers are still largely unknown. For investigating this topic, we propose a new inwardness indicator able to gauge the degree of scientific self-referentiality of a country. Inwardness is defined as the proportion of citations coming from the country over the total number of citations gathered by the country. A comparative analysis of the trends for the G10 countries in the years 2000-2016 reveals a net increase of the Italian inwardness. Italy became, both globally and for a large majority of the research fields, the country with the highest inwardness and the lowest rate of international collaborations. The change in the Italian trend occurs in the years following the introduction in 2011 of national regulations in which key passages of professional careers are governed by bibliometric indicators. A most likely explanation of the peculiar Italian trend is a generalized strategic use of citations in the Italian scientific community, both in the form of strategic author self-citations and of citation clubs. We argue that the Italian case offers crucial insights on the constitutive effects of evaluation systems. As such, it could become a paradigmatic case in the debate about the use of indicators in science-policy contexts
The Doctorate Programs in Italy: How Economists are Trained?
No full textIn this paper we examine the Doctorate programs in economics in Italy, also through the lenses of a questionnaire sent to the 44 Directors in charge of them at die time (2008). We asked 10 questions related to the organization, the teaching and the job prospective of their program. Our data, covering the 97% of the doctorates awarded between 2001-2005, allow us to draw a picture which is highly representative of the Italian situation. The Italian Doctorates in economics are characterized by a focus on the academic career and are hardly appealing, both from the demand and supply side, for other professional careers. The training profile is almost exclusively modelled on what is done at the major Ph.D. granting University in the US and UK, in terms of textbook adopted and courses offered. The overview of the Italian Doctorate programs in economics conveys the impression of strong homogeneity, rather than diversity and innovation, to the detriment - in our view - to their potential
Reply to the comment of Bertocchi et al.
Full text linkThe aim of this note is to reply to Bertocchi et al.’s comment to our paper “Do they agree? Bibliometric evaluation versus informed peer review in the Italian research assessment exercise”. Our paper analyzed results of the experiment conducted by the Italian governmental agency ANVUR during the research assessment exercise about the agreement between informed peer review (IR) and bibliometrics. We argued that according to available statistical guidelines, results of the experiment are indicative of a poor agreement in all research fields with only one exception, results reached in the so called Area 13 (economics and statistics). We argued that this difference was due to the changes introduced in Area 13 with respect to the protocol adopted in all the other areas. Bertocchi et al.’s comment dismiss our explanation and suggest that the difference was due to “differences in the evaluation processes between Area 13 and other areas”. In addition, they state that all our five claims about Area 13 experiment protocol “are either incorrect or not based on any evidence”. Based on textual evidence drawn from ANVUR official reports, we show that: (1) none of the four differences listed by Bertocchi et al. is peculiar of Area 13; (2) their five arguments contesting our claims about the experiment protocol are all contradicted by official records of the experiment itself
Interlocking editorship. A network analysis of the links between economic journals
No full textThe exploratory analysis developed in this paper relies on the hypothesis that
each editor possesses some power in the definition of the editorial policy of her journal.
Consequently if the same scholar sits on the board of editors of two journals, those journals
could have some common elements in their editorial policies. The proximity of the editorial
policies of two scientific journals can be assessed by the number of common editors
sitting on their boards. A database of all editors of ECONLIT journals is used. The
structure of the network generated by interlocking editorship is explored by applying the
instruments of network analysis. Evidence has been found of a compact network containing
different components. This is interpreted as the result of a plurality of perspectives
about the appropriate methods for the investigation of problems and the construction of
theories within the domain of economics
Statistical Analysis of the Hirsch Index
No full textThe Hirsch index (commonly referred to as h -index) is a biblio- metric indicator which is widely recognized as effective for measuring the scientific production of a scholar since it summarizes si ze and impact of the research output. In a formal setting, the h -index is actually an empirical functional of the distribution of the citation counts received by the scholar. Under this approach, the asymptotic theory for the empirica l h - index has been recently exploited when the citation counts f ollow a continuous distribution and, in particular, variance esti mation has been considered for the Pareto-type and the Weibull-type di stribu- tion families. However, in bibliometric applications, cit ation counts display a distribution supported by the integers. Thus, we p rovide general properties for the empirical h -index under the small- and large-sample settings. In addition, we also introduce consistent nonparametric va riance estimation, which allows for the implemention of large-sam ple set estimation for the theoretical h -inde
Statistical inference on the h-index with an application to top-scientist performance
No full textDespite the huge amount of literature on h-index, few papers have been\ndevoted to the statistical analysis of h-index when a probabilistic\ndistribution is assumed for citation counts. The present contribution relies on\nshowing the available inferential techniques, by providing the details for\nproper point and set estimation of the theoretical h-index. Moreover, some\nissues on simultaneous inference - aimed to produce suitable scholar\ncomparisons - are carried out. Finally, the analysis of the citation dataset\nfor the Nobel Laureates (in the last five years) and for the Fields medallists\n(from 2002 onward) is proposed
Do they agree? Bibliometric evaluation vs informed peer review in the Italian research assessment exercise
Full text linkDuring the Italian research assessment exercise, the national agency ANVUR
performed an experiment to assess agreement between grades obtained through
informed peer review (IR) and bibliometrics. A sample was evaluated by using
both methods and concordance was analyzed by weighted Cohen's kappas. According
to ANVUR results indicated an overall "more than adequate" agreement which
"fully justifies" the choice of using jointly both techniques in the
assessment. However, according to available statistical guidelines for kappa
values, the degree of agreement has to be interpreted, for all research fields,
as poor or, in a few cases, as, at most, fair. The only notable exception is
Area 13 (economics and statistics) and its sub-areas, showing moderate
agreement. However, a statistical meta-analysis rejects the hypothesis that
kappas from Area 13 share the same distribution as those from the other areas.
In fact, a scrutiny of the experiment protocol adopted by the Area 13 panel
highlights substantial modifications with respect to protocols of all the other
areas, to the point that results for Area 13 have to be considered as fatally
flawed. The evidence of a poor to fair concordance supports the conclusion that
IR and bibliometrics do not produce similar results. As a consequence, final
results reached in the Italian research assessment possibly depend on the mix
of instruments used for evaluating research outputs. The conclusion reached by
ANVUR must be reversed: the available evidence does not justify at all the
joint use of both techniques within the same research assessment exercise
- …
