1,720,973 research outputs found
Mutamenti delle condizioni dell’offerta aggregata in Italia nell’ultimo trentennio: un approccio VAR cointegrato
No full textCollana Studi e Ricerche, Dipartimento di Scienze Economich
Changes of the aggregate supply conditions in Italy: a small econometric model and its policy implications
No full textThis paper examines aggregate supply conditions in Italy and how they changed from the 1970s to the
late 1990s. Based on a VAR model for wages, prices, productivity, unemployment and exchange rate the
cointegration properties of the data in nominal and real terms are analysed. Analysis is based on a model
directly derived from the work of [Modigliani, F., & Padoa Schioppa, T. (1977). La politica economica in
un’economia con salari indicizzati al 100 o pi`u. Moneta e Credito, 117, 3–53]. Our results – giving empirical
evidence for the existence of a link between labour market reform, employment and wage flexibilization –
provide a major incentive for labour market reforms in Italy. The pressure for reintroducing mechanisms
for partial wage purchasing power defence are resolutely discouraged. Normative aspects of ‘concertation’
should be positively reappraised as compared to wage aspects. Other notable policy implications are
highlighted in the paper
La «questione dei bassi salari» in Italia: l’interazione tra rigidità salariale reale e politica monetaria. Ipotesi interpretativa e verifica empirica per il periodo 1970-1997
No full textThis paper explores empirically the hypothesis that in Italy the change in
monetary policy stance starting from 1979 was one of the causes of the wage
moderation that began in the early 1980s and which led to the peculiarly
Italian problem of “low wages”, mentioned recently by the Governor of the
Bank of Italy. The theoretical background forming the basis for the empirical
test is a New-Keynesian general equilibrium model with real rigidities; the
hypothesis explores the role monetary policy may play in modifying the static
equilibrium relations of the labor market (wage-setting and price-setting). The
Italian labor market static equilibrium relations and a Taylor rule are estimated
and identified, within a cointegrated VAR (Vector Autoregressive) model.
The analysis is then conducted in the framework of a Markov switching vector
error correction model that allows for regime shifts in the intercept term.
While the results obtained confirm the existence of a major break common
both to monetary policy and the labor market during the transition from the
1970s to the 1980s, they also appear to exclude the existence in the 1980s and
1990s of common regimes – in the precise sense used in Markov regime switching
– between the Taylor rule, wage-setting and price-setting equations
Co-breaking in the bond-equity yield equilibrium model: an empirical analysis for the United States
No full textIn this paper we present estimates indicating that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between the earnings yield on
stocks and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds and that this equilibrium relationship implies co-breaking with forward earnings
growth. We are also able to show that this co-breaking relationship works in the same way with a variable which has been shown to
relate the variation through time of risk premia to business conditions. Our approach is similar to Krolzig and Toro [2004. Decision
Support Systems 37, 531– 542] who demonstrate that the present value theory implies co-breaking of Bond-Equity Yield Ratio
(BEYR) and dividend growth. In our paper we analyse if this result can be proven also for the so called Fed model, which is a variant
of BEYR. We provide an empirical analysis of the validity of this hypothesis in the United States for the time period 1979.1-2005.8.
Comparing the results with a linear VAR and with alternative formulations of Markov switching VAR (MS-VARX and MS-DVAR),
we find that co-breaking of the bond-equity yield equilibrium ratio and forward earnings growth or a variable that proxy for changes
in risk premium, shows a superior ability to describe bull and bear cycles in the stock market
Mutamenti delle condizioni dell’offerta aggregata in Italia: un approccio VAR cointegrato all’analisi macroeconomica del mercato del lavoro
No full textThe purpose of this paper is to identify some changes of the aggregate supply conditions in Italy from the seventies to the end of the nineties of the last century. Based on a VAR model for wages, prices, productivity, unemployment and exchange rate the cointegration properties of the data in nominal and real terms are analysed. The analysis is based on a model directly derived from the work of Modigliani and Padoa Schioppa (1977). Our results provide a confirmation of the assumption that a prominent change took place in the Italian macroeconomic system at the beginning of the eighties. The empirical model presented also allows for an assessment of how the characteristics of the Phillips curve evolved during the three decades considered. Moreover it is possible to underscore the process whereby real wages were made increasingly flexible during the 1980s and 1990s
At the origin of the NAIRU: short-term economic policy and the development of the first Italian macroeconometric models
No full text
Mutamenti istituzionali del mercato del lavoro, flessibilità salariale e curva di Phillips: un approccio empirico all’esperienza italiana nell’ultimo trentennio
No full textIl presente lavoro tratta il problema della rigidità salariale a livello macroeconomico e presenta un tentativo d’indicare delle definizioni di flessibilità nominale e reale empiricamente rilevanti. Vengono presentati alcuni indizi degli effetti prodotti sulla flessibilità salariale dal cambiamento istituzionale intervenuto in Italia a partire dai primi anni '80
Relazioni statiche e caratteristiche dinamiche: un approccio VAR cointegrato all'analisi macroeconomica del mercato del lavoro italiano nell'ultimo trentennio
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