1,721,027 research outputs found
Flattening of the Phillips curve and the role of the oil price: An unobserved component model for the USA and Australia
Full text linkWe used the unobserved component model of. Harvey (1989, 2011) to estimate the Phillips curve for the USA and Australia, augmenting it with the oil price. Our results show that while the coefficient of demand pressure and the intercept decreased, the coefficient of the oil price increased. Therefore, the oil price is likely to play a significant role in future inflation rates. © 2012 Elsevier B.V
How to offset the negative trend growth rate in the Italian economy?
Full text linkThe trend growth rate of the Italian economy has been declining since the 1980s. To examine how to offset this trend, we estimate a simple specification of an endogenous growth model. Cointegrating equations for the long-run output growth and its determinants are estimated with alternative time series methods. Our results imply that policies to double trade openness are necessary.
Estimates of the steady state growth rates for some European countries
Full text linkThis paper estimates the steady state growth rates for the main European countries with an extended version of the Solow (1956) growth model. Total factor productivity is assumed a function of human capital, trade openness and investment ratio. We show that these factors, with some differences, have played an important role to improve the long run growth rates of Italy, Spain, France, UK, and Ireland. A few policies to improve the long-run growth rates for these countries are suggested. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.
A New Keynesian IS curve for Australia: is it forward looking or backward looking?
Full text linkThis article estimates the forward looking, backward looking and an extended version of the New Keynesian IS curve for Australia. The validity of these models is investigated by imposing the constraint on real rate of interest as well as when the constraint is relaxed. Two measures of output gap, namely GAP1 (constructed using the unobserved components approach) and GAP2 (constructed using a quadratic trend) are utilized. Our results suggest that the baseline backward looking and forward looking models are overwhelmingly rejected by the data. This evidence strongly supports the extended backward looking model (with GAP2) being relevant for monetary policy analysis. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC
US inflation and consumption: A long-term perspective with a level shift
Full text linkThis article examines the existence and stability of the consumption function in the United States of America (US) beginning in the 1950s. In order to obtain a stable long run relationship, we have introduced two innovative elements into the analysis of the life-cycle of the consumption function with wealth effects: 1) a shift level break in the cointegrating relationship, and 2) using inflation as an additional explanatory variable. By implementing a well structured estimation strategy, we found that after taking the level shift into account, a cointegrating equation, including inflation, exists and is more stable for the critical sub-samples than traditional consumption function models. © 2012 Elsevier B.V
The growth effects of education in Australia
Full text linkIn this article, we estimate the growth effect of human capital with country-specific time series data for Australia. In doing so, we extended the Solow (1956) growth model by using educational attainment as a measure of human capital developed by Barro and Lee (2010). The extended Solow (1956) model performs well after allowing for the presence of structural changes. Our results, based on alternative time series methods, show that educational attainment has a small and significant permanent effect on the growth rate of per worker output in Australia
The dynamics of Italian public debt: Alternative paths for fiscal consolidation
Full text linkThis paper analyses possible targets for the Italian debt-to-GDP ratio with a small macroeconomic model. The role of international macroeconomic variables such as the US GDP growth, prices of raw materials, EUR/USD exchange rate, and ECB monetary policy stance and domestic policy instruments is analyzed in the debt dynamics. We find that external conditions play a fundamental role for the Italian fiscal consolidation. To reach a target of 100% of debt-to-GDP ratio by 2020, a further growth sustaining policy has to be implemented
F versus t tests for unit roots
Full text linkF tests which test jointly for a unit root and a zero intercept, and so compete against Dickey-Fuller t tests, are shown not to enhance power because they are invariant to the intercept value in the absence of a unit root. Monte Carlo results in the literature that indicate otherwise are shown to have resulted from the use of special starting values. Testing procedures that employ these F tests to enhance power should be revised.Dickey-Fuller
Buyer and Seller Responses to an Adverse Food Safety Event: The Case of Frozen Salmon in Alberta
Full text linkFish is a low-fat protein source high in omega-3 fatty acids, but in 2004 consumers also heard that farmed salmon had high levels of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCBs). This research evaluated how Canadian consumers and processors reacted to the conflicting health messages. Demand estimates and time-series analysis of 2001-2006 frozen meat scanner data in Alberta, Canada show a significant drop in salmon expenditure share following the PCB finding. The industry responded by launching low-priced wild salmon products, which contributed to significant demand expansion. The analysis illustrates how a food safety threat was averted and even served as a catalyst for growth.salmon, scanner data, food safety, demand, directed acyclic graphs, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Q10, Q11, Q16, Q22,
Does economic development cause intra-industry trade? The case of India: 1971 to 2000
Full text linkIndia’s intra-industry trade (IIT) is evaluated and analyzed from 1971 to 2000. IIT is found to have an upward trend with a growth rate that is close to the growth rate of GNP. A host of macro economic indicators are cointegrated with IIT suggesting that there is a stable relationship between IIT and the level of economic development of India. The causation of this relationship is not however unidirectional as the existing theoretical literature on IIT suggests. There is bi-directional causality for these variables. This implies that though economic development boosts IIT, it can equally be interpreted as a proxy for economic development and a predictor of future industrial progress rather than one that strictly follows it.Intra Industry Trade; Economic Development; Causality
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