1,721,211 research outputs found
Patents as Options: Some Estimates of the Value of Holding European Patent Stocks
Full text linkIn many countries holders of patents must pay an annual renewal fee in order to keep their patents in force. This paper uses data on the proportion of patents renewed, and the renewal fees faced by, post World War II cohorts of patents in France, the United Kingdom, and Germany, in conjunction with a model of patent holders' renewal decisions, to estimate the returns earned from holding patents in these countries. Since patents are often applied for at a nearly stage in the innovation process, the model allows agents to be uncertain about the sequence of returns that will be earned if the patent is kept inforce. Formally, then, the paper presents and solves a discrete choice optimal stochastic control model, derives the implications of the model on aggregate behaviour, and then estimates the parameters of the model from aggregate data. The estimates enable a detailed description of the evolution of the distribution of returns earned from holding patents over their life spans,and calculations of both; the annual returns earned from holding the patents still in force (or the patent stocks) in the alternative countries, and the distribution of the discounted value of returns earned from holding the patents in a cohort.
Measuring Price Sensitivity Differences for Inner-City and Suburban Consumers: An Analysis of Breakfast Cereals with Supermarket Scanner Data
Full text linkThis paper uses supermarket scanner data to examine the purchasing behavior of suburban and inner-city shoppers in the Columbus, Ohio metropolitan area.Scanner data, own-price elasticity, cross-price elasticity, expenditure elasticity, price sensitivity, inner-city shoppers, suburban shoppers and purchasing behavior., Agribusiness, Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,
Looking for the News in the Noise - Additional Stochastic Implications of Optimal Consumption Choice
Full text linkIn neoclassical models of consumption choice under earnings uncertainty changes in consumption programs from one period to the next are determined by new information received about future earnings over the period. This proposition suggests testing the neoclassical model by ascertaining whether new earnings information explains consumption choice through time. It also suggests that actual consumption choices imbed extractable information about the extent and time resolution of earnings uncertainty. This paper derives a fairly general theoretical relationship between properly defined innnovations in consumption (noise) and revisions in expectations of lifetime earnings (news). It also clarifies the relationship between testing for the theoretical determinants of consumption and standard Euler tests that focus on theoretical nondeterminants of consumption. The chief prediction of the paper's theoretical results, that noise exactly equals news, is tested using aggregate time series data on consumption and earnings. We find that new earnings information explains only a very small fraction of the variance of aggregate consumption innovations. On the other hand, the extent of suboptimal consumption choice appears to be of little economic significance.
Advertising in the US Personal Computer Industry
Full text linkTraditional models of consumer choice assume consumers are aware of all products for sale.This assumption is questionable, especially when applied to markets characterized by a high degree of change, such as the personal computer (PC) industry. I present an empirical discrete-choice model of limited information on the part of consumers, where advertising influences the set of products from which consumers choose to purchase. Multi-product firms choose prices and advertising in each medium to maximize their profits. I apply the model to the US PC market, in which advertising expenditures are over $2 billion annually. The estimation technique incorporates macro and micro data from three sources. Estimated median industry markups are 19% over production costs. The high industry markups are explained in part by the fact that consumers know only some of the products for sale.Indeed estimates from traditional consumer choice models predict median markups of one fourth this magnitude. I find that product-specific demand curves are biased towards being too elastic under traditional models of consumer choice. The estimates suggest that PC firms use advertising media to target high-income households, that there are returns to scope in group advertising, and that word-of-mouth or experience plays a role in informing consumers. The top firms engage in higher than average advertising and earn higher than average markups.
Quantifying Quality Growth
Full text linkWe introduce an instrumental variables approach to estimate the importance of unmeasured quality growth for a set of 66 durable consumer goods. Our instrument is based on predicting which of these 66 goods will display rapid quality growth. Using pooled cross- relatively sections of households in the 1980 through 1996 U.S. Consumer Expenditure Surveys, we estimate quality Engel curves' for 66 durable consumer goods based on the extent richer households pay more for a good, conditional on purchasing. We use the slopes of these curves to predict the rate of quality-upgrading. Just as if households are ascending these quality Engel curves over time, we find that the average price paid rises faster for goods with steeper quality slopes. BLS prices likewise increase more quickly for goods with steeper quality slopes, suggesting the BLS does not fully net out the impact of quality-upgrading on prices paid. We estimate that quality growth averages about 3.7% per year for our goods, with about 60% of this, or 2.2% per year, showing up as higher inflation rather than higher real growth.
Valeur et obsolescence des brevets : une analyse des statistiques de renouvellement des brevets européens
No full textThe rate of obsolescence and the distribution
Of patent values : some evidence from european patent
Renewals
Mark Schankerman, Ariel Pakes
This paper presents econometric estimates of the rate of obsolescence and the distribution of the private value of holding patents. The estimates are derived by combining information on patent renewals and renewal fees in Europeen countries with a simple economic model of the renewal decision of patent holders. The model is applied to two sets of data the first covering four European countries during the period 1930-1939, and the second including all patent applications mode in France during 1950-1979. Two principal empirical findings emerge. First, the private rate of obsolescence is high, both from the prewar and the post-war data. Second, the distribution of the value of holding patents is sharply skewed to the right. More broadly, the results suggest the potential use of patent renewal data for measuring the value of patent rights in different sectors and countries and over time.Cette étude est une tentative pour estimer le taux d'obsolescence des revenus rapportés par un brevet, ainsi que la distribution de ces revenus. Les estimations sont fondées sur un modèle simple de renouvellement des brevets et sur deux ensembles de données :. le premier pour quatre pays européens sur les années 1930-1939, le second plus détaillé pour la France entre 1950 et 1979. On trouve principalement que le taux d'obsolescence des brevets est très élevé, aussi bien avant-qu'après-guerre, et que la valeur économique des brevets a une distribution très asymétrique, la plupart des brevets n'ayant qu'une valeur économique très faible. Les statistiques de renouvellement des brevets apparaissent ainsi comme une source d'information intéressante sur la distribution de leurs valeurs, pouvant permettre notamment des comparaisons entre pays et secteurs, et entre différentes périodes.Schankerman Mark, Pakes Ariel. Valeur et obsolescence des brevets : une analyse des statistiques de renouvellement des brevets européens. In: Revue économique, volume 36, n°5, 1985. pp. 917-942
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