3,418 research outputs found
Replication Data for: Central Bank Undersight
No full textReplication files for: Andrew T. Levin & Christina Parajon Skinner, "Central Bank Undersight: Assessing the Federal Reserve's Accountability to Congress
Assessing the burden of COVID-19 in developing countries: systematic review, meta-analysis and public policy implications
No full textTrabajo realizado por otros catorce autores.Introduction The infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 has been carefully measured and analysed in high-income countries, whereas there has been no systematic analysis of age-specific seroprevalence or IFR for developing countries. Methods We systematically reviewed the literature to identify all COVID-19 serology studies in developing countries that were conducted using representative samples collected by February 2021. For each of the antibody assays used in these serology studies, we identified data on assay characteristics,
including the extent of seroreversion over time. We analysed the serology data using a Bayesian model that incorporates conventional sampling uncertainty as well as uncertainties about assay sensitivity and specificity. We then calculated IFRs using individual case reports or aggregated public health updates, including age pecific estimates whenever feasible. Results In most locations in developing countries, seroprevalence among older adults was similar to that of younger age cohorts, underscoring the limited capacity that these nations have to protect older age groups. Age-specific IFRs were roughly 2 times higher than in high income countries. The median value of the population IFR was about 0.5%, similar to that of high-income countries, because disparities in healthcare access were roughly offset by differences in population age structure. Conclusion The burden of COVID-19 is far higher in developing countries than in high-income countries, reflecting a combination of elevated transmission to middle-aged and older adults as well as limited access to adequate healthcare. These results underscore the critical need to ensure medical equity to populations in developing countries through provision of vaccine doses and effective medications
"The Consolidated Assistance Program, Reforming Welfare by Synchronizing Public Assistance Benefits"
No full textLevin-Waldman examines the structure of existing welfare programs and concludes that the current array of benefits could be synchronized and consolidated to create a new system that would provide economic incentives to work. He suggests combining elements of the earned income tax credit (EITC) and current welfare programs into one program, a consolidated assistance program (CAP). Levin-Waldman argues that a program composed of an assistance component (with one set of benefits for working parents and a different set for nonworking parents) and a child support component could be designed to assure minimal subsistence to those unable to work while providing incentives for those on welfare to work without, in effect, penalizing them for getting off welfare. Such a program would reform welfare more expeditiously than a plan that would simply expand the EITC or put a time limit on welfare benefits. Moreover, such a plan would not necessarily add to the national budget deficit.
VARHAC Covariance Matrix Estimator (FORTRAN)
No full textThis program calculates the VARHAC covariance matrix estimator proposed in Den Haan and Levin (1994). The FORTRAN procedure calculates the VARHAC spectral estimator of the spectral density at frequency zero for a number of input series.
Commentary on "Optimal monetary policy under uncertainty: a Markov jump-linear-quadratic approach"
No full textEconometric models ; Monetary policy
VARHAC Covariance Matrix Estimator (GAUSS)
No full textThese programs calculate the VARHAC covariance matrix estimator proposed in Den Haan and Levin (1994) . The GAUSS procedure calculates the VARHAC spectral estimator of the spectral density at frequency zero for a number of input series. Included files: vhgauss3.src, gauss VARHAC procedure. ls.pro, program to calculate OLS parameter estimates and VARHAC standard errors. exam1.dat, sample data file for ls.pro. exam2.dat, a second sample data file for ls.pro. exgauss1.pro, another example program.
VARHAC Covariance Matrix Estimator (RATS)
No full textThese programs calculate the VARHAC covariance matrix estimator proposed in Den Haan and Levin (1994) . RATS procedure calculates the VARHAC spectral estimator of the spectral density at frequency zero for a number of input series. The RATS OLS procedure calculates the least-squares estimates and robust standard errors, calculated with the VARHAC procedure. The commands and the options are described in the programs. The only difference between the dos and the unix version is how neatly the menus appear on your screen when you choose to use the interactive mode. Included files: varhac.src, rats VARHAC program (dos version). varhac2.src, rats VARHAC program (unix version). vhols, rats OLS program (dos version). vhols2, rats OLS program (unix version).
Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 seroassay sensitivity: a systematic review and modelling study
No full textBackground: Serological surveys have been the gold standard to estimate numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections, the dynamics of the epidemic, and disease severity. Serological assays have decaying sensitivity with time that can bias their results, but there is a lack of guidelines to account for this phenomenon for SARS-CoV-2.
Aim: Our goal was to assess the sensitivity decay of seroassays for detecting SARS-CoV-2 infections, the dependence of this decay on assay characteristics, and to provide a simple method to correct for this phenomenon.
Methods: We performed a systematic review and metaanalysis of SARS-CoV-2 serology studies. We included
studies testing previously diagnosed, unvaccinated individuals, and excluded studies of cohorts highly unrepresentative of the general population (e.g. hospitalised patients).
Results: Of the 488 screened studies, 76 studies reporting on 50 different seroassays were included in the analysis. Sensitivity decay depended strongly on the antigen and the analytic technique used by the assay, with average sensitivities ranging between 26% and 98% at 6 months after infection, depending on assay characteristics. We found that a third of the included assays departed considerably from manufacturer specifications after 6 months.
Conclusions: Seroassay sensitivity decay depends on assay characteristics, and for some types of assays, it can make manufacturer specifications highly unreliable. We provide a tool to correct for this phenomenon and to assess the risk of decay for a given assay. Our analysis can guide the design and interpretation of serosurveys for SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens and quantify systematic biases in the existing serology literature
Does inflation targeting anchor long-run inflation expectations? evidence from long-term bond yields in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden
No full textWe investigate the extent to which inflation targeting helps anchor long-run inflation expectations by comparing the behavior of daily bond yield data in the United Kingdom and Sweden--both inflation targeters--to that in the United States, a non-inflation-targeter. Using the difference between far-ahead forward rates on nominal and inflation-indexed bonds as a measure of compensation for expected inflation and inflation risk at long horizons, we examine how much, if at all, far-ahead forward inflation compensation moves in response to macroeconomic data releases and monetary policy announcements. In the U.S., we find that forward inflation compensation exhibits highly significant responses to economic news. In the U.K., we find a level of sensitivity similar to that in the U.S. prior to the Bank of England gaining independence in 1997, but a striking absence of such sensitivity since the central bank became independent. In Sweden, we find that forward inflation compensation has been insensitive to economic news over the whole period for which we have data. Our findings support the view that a well-known and credible inflation target helps to anchor the private sector's perceptions of the distribution of long-run inflation outcomes.Inflation (Finance) ; Prices ; Monetary policy
Falling Behind the Curve: A Positive Analysis of Stop-Start Monetary Policies and the Great Inflation
No full textThis paper documents the evolution of long-run inflation expectations and models the stance of monetary policy from 1965 to 1980. A host of survey-based measures and financial market data indicate that long-run inflation expectations rose markedly from 1965 to 1969, leveled off in the mid-1970s, and then rose at an alarming pace from 1977 to 1980. While previous studies have shown that the trajectory of the federal funds rate over that period is not well-represented by a Taylor rule with a constant inflation goal, our analysis indicates that the path of policy can be characterized by a reaction function with two breaks in the intercept—in 1970 and 1976—that correspond to discrete shifts in an implicit inflation goal. This reaction function implies that a series of stop-start episodes occurred in 1968-70, 1974-76, and 1979-80. In each episode, policy fell behind the curve by allowing a pickup in inflation before tightening belatedly, and then the subsequent contraction in economic activity led to policy easing before inflation had been brought back down to its previous level. The evidence presented in this paper raises serious doubts about several prominent theories of the Great Inflation and suggests that a simple rule with an explicit inflation goal could serve as a useful benchmark for avoiding its recurrence.
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