6 research outputs found
New Alternative Methods For Estimation Of Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Model
Get PDFTwo methods, the Quasi-likelihood (QL) and Asymptotic Quasi-likelihood (AQL) for finding a point estimate of unknown parameters in asymmetric stochastic volatility (ASV) model with leverage effect are proposed. The QL estimation (QLE) developing if probability distribution of (ASV) model is not available. The AQL estimation (AQLE) building on QLE technique and is obtained where variance and covariance are not available. The AQL estimation substitutes the variance and covariance by kernel estimator in QL. Application of the QLE and AQLE to analyze several data sets modeled by ASV model are considered
Parameters estimation for GARCH (p,q) model: QL and AQL approaches
Get PDFIn this paper, estimation for the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model is conducted. The Quasi likelihood (QL) and Asymptotic Quasi-likelihood (AQL) estimation methods are suggested in this paper. The QL approach relaxes the distributional assumptions of GARCH processes. The AQL technique obtains out the QL method when the conditional variance of process is unknown. The AQL methodology, merging the kernel technique used for parameter estimation of the GARCH model. This AQL methodology enables a substitute technique for parameter estimation when the conditional variance of process is unknown. Application of the QL and AQL methods to weekly prices changes of crude oil modelled by GARCH model is considered
Cash social transfers, direct taxes, and income distribution in late socialism
Get PDFThe author analyzes the impact of direct taxes and cash social transfers on income distribution in Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland and Yugoslavia in the years before the collapse of communism. He contrasts the results for socialist and market economies. Cash social transfers accounted for about a fifth of gross income, a proportion comparable with that in developed welfare economies. Generally, cash transfers were unrelated to income in socialist countries, in marked contrast with market economies, where such transfers go mainly to low income households. Direct taxes played almost no role in income redistribution. They were small - 1 to 2 percent of gross income, except in Hungary - and proportional to income. Most taxes were paid by enterprises, as payroll taxes, and most workers were unaware of the taxation and that public spending could not permanently exceed public revenues from taxation. In socialist countries, social support was built into the system through full employment guarantees, state run pension schemes, and free public education and health care. The only explicit policy toward poverty involved alcoholics, handicapped people, and other special categories. This system is being replaced by a market system in which the labor market is key and those who cannot earn enough must be supported by the state. To counteract increasing income disparities, social transfers must be focussed more on the poor. Eastern European states are ill prepared for this role. They have no experience in identifying the needy and targeting support to them. The question is, toward which world of welfare capitalism are the formerly socialist countries likely to evolve? The author contends that the Central European countries will probably evolve toward the corporatist model of continental Europe. Capitalist countries in Europe tend to have large social transfers that are often related to previous earnings, so they have relatively limited roles in income distribution. Transfers are closer to social insurance than to social assistance. The evolution of more agricultural Balkan countries and the Slavic republics of the former Soviet Union is more difficult to predict. Poorer and more agriculture based countries are generally less able to administer welfare schemes, gauge individual incomes, deliver social support - and their finances may be even more strained than those of their Central European counterparts.Services&Transfers to Poor,Poverty Impact Evaluation,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Safety Nets and Transfers
Inference of Adaptive methods for Multi-Stage skew-t Simulated Data
Get PDFMultilevel models can be used to account for clustering in data from multi-stage surveys. In some cases, the intra-cluster correlation may be close to zero, so that it may seem reasonable to ignore clustering and fit a single level model. This article proposes several adaptive strategies for allowing for clustering in regression analysis of multi-stage survey data. The approach is based on testing whether the cluster-level variance component is zero. If this hypothesis is retained, then variance estimates are calculated ignoring clustering; otherwise, clustering is reflected in variance estimation. A simple simulation study is used to evaluate the various procedures
Poverty and policy
Get PDFIn this analysis of public policy to reduce poverty, the authors point out, among other things, that typically the highest incidence and severity of poverty are still found in rural areas, especially if ill-watered. For many of the rural poor, the only immediate route out of poverty is by migration to towns, to face a higher expected income, although often a more uncertain one. This may or may not reduce aggregate poverty. We can be more confident that growth in agricultural output -- fueled by investment in human and physical infrastructure -- is pro-poor, though not because the poor own much land. The policies pursued by most developing countries up to the mid-1980s -- and by many still -- have been biased against the rural sector in various ways. The same is true -- although different policies are involved -- of the other major sectoral concentration of poor, namely, the urban informal sector. There are clear prospects for reducing poverty by removing these biases. Looking ahead (far ahead, in some cases), it is less clear how much further gain to the poor can be expected from introducing a bias in the opposite direction. Neutrality should be the aim. We need good data and measurement to identify which public actions are effective in fighting poverty. There have been a number of advances in household data and analytic capabilities for poverty analysis over the last ten years. We are in a better position than ever to devise well-informed policies. The authors identify two important roles for public action. One is to foster the conditions for pro-poor growth, particularly by providing wide access to the necessary physical and human assets, including public infrastructure. The other is to help those who cannot participate fully in the benefits of such growth, or who do so with continued exposure to unacceptable risks. Here there is an important role for aiming interventions by various means to improve the distribution of the benefits of public spending on social services and safety nets in developing countries. Those means range from the selection of key categories of public spending (such as primary education and basic health care) to more finely targeted transfers (including nutrition and health interventions) based on poverty indicators, or some self-targeting mechanism. Though disappointing outcomes abound, many countries have demonstrated what is possible with timely and well-conceived interventions.Health Monitoring&Evaluation,Environmental Economics&Policies,Health Economics&Finance,Poverty Assessment,Achieving Shared Growth
A Comparative study linguistic and literary paradox in the poems of ‛Abd al-wahhāb al-Bayātī and Mohammad Reza šafi’i Kadkani
No full textA Comparative Study of Linguistic and Literary Paradoxes in the Poems of Abd al-Wahhab Al-Bayati and Mohammad-Reza Shafiei Kadkani* Hediyeh Ghasemifard 1 Dr.Naser Zare 2 1. Introduction Paradox is a proposition that logically seems incompatible and absurd, but can be meaningful by interpreting. Almost all poets have occasionally used it (see Abrams, 2005:244), as Shafiei Kadkani states "paradox is an image the two sides of its combination contradict each other conceptually like monarchy of the poverty" (Shafiei Kadkani, 1992:54). He believes that paradoxical images can be found in all periods of Persian poetry (Ibid: 57). Undoubtedly, in different periods of Arabic poetry, examples can also be stated: أو أبعدَ بُعدَنا بُعدَ التَدانی / وقرّبَ قربَنا قُربَ البعد (Al-Mutanabbi, 1988, 2: 78) (does it close our distance like keeping out our nearness and being far and nearness like closeness of separation?). Among the poets who had a high frequency of this literary method in their poems are Abd al-Wahhab al-Bayati (1926-1999) and Mohammad-Reza Shafiei Kadkani (1939), who are considered as powerful poets in the field of modern poetry. These two poets began their poetry with a romantic approach and then after moving from social realism, reached the symbolization phase. Social - political concerns with words that express sadness, a reason for common thoughts the two poets. Their acquaintance with each other is undeniable; contemporaneity and attendance at one of the international congresses of poetry provided the opportunity to know each other. On the other hand, Al-Bayati really interested in Persian poetry and Shafiei Kadkani is completely familiar with classic and contemporary Arabic literature; attention to Khayyam, Attar, Sohrawardi, and Hafiz are manifestations of Al-Bayaty's attempt to Iranian culture and about Shafiei Kadkani relation to the Arabic literature there is abundant evidence that does not need to be cited; since by a brief looking at his research works, translations and poems, his mastery can be found, and here it is not possible to deal with it. However, this does not mean that these two poets were influenced by the method and stylistic characteristics of each other, so it is possible to examine their stylistic properties within the framework of American School of Comparative Literature. In this paper, using descriptive-analytic method, only those poetry evidence will be examined that is in common between two poets in terms of style or implication. 2.Methodology In this study, by criticizing and analyzing similar and contradictory prominent examples in the poetry of two poets, we can examine the implications or constructs based on the American School of Comparative Literature and descriptive analytical method of applying paradox in their poetry. 3.Discussion Since paradoxes lead to a new recognition of the artwork, so Al-Bayati and Shafiei Kadkani, by leaving familiar meanings and creation of concepts seemingly the opposite of the fact, tangible to us a world of realities. Paradoxical expressions and compositions in their poems can be divided into two types: linguistic and literary, and analyzed their similarities and differences as the paradoxical limitations of language is the most difficult of the paradoxes in terms of arrangement and construction of words, but many paradoxes in the grammar part of these two poets can be found. The paradox in the poetry of these two poets is found in the composition and document. Paradoxical compounds are purposely used to influence rhetoric, by combining contradictory words and creating exquisite images (Fotouhi, 2015: 328). These compounds are sometimes concise of one or more sentences with a contradictory meaning that are expressed in the form of adjectives (adjective and noun) and (Annexation and Annexed) in the poetry of two poets. Using the elements of nature in these contradictory combinations is a striking resemblance to the poetry of these two poet and Annexed) in the poetry of two poets. Using the elements of nature in these contradictory combinations is a striking resemblance to the poetry of these two poets. Predicative paradox (predicative paradox (documentary paradox)) is another type of linguistic paradox that arises in the proposition of predicate and subject and can be examined in the poetry of these two poets at the level of two sentences or in the same constructions. These two poets sometimes use paradox at the level of two sentences using coordination of "and" or "no". The coordination letter of "and" is the most commonly used subordinated conjunctions. When several structures are linked together with "and" and construct a new structure, its artistic device find an alignment grammatical value. For this reason, two poets connect the contradictory words with "and", and affect the semantic and interpretive structures of the poem, as the reader suspects that he is confronted with a subject that is inaccurate because he is received the feeling of parallelism from the subordinating conjunction of "and". These two poets express their meaning and intention of paradox in a coordinated structure with the help of adverb of manner that shows different states or through a proposition. Another way to construct a paradox in the poetry of these poets is using figures of speech such as simile, metaphor, allusion, and tard va axe, which is referred to as literary paradox. The purpose of simile is to prove a trait (an adjective) from vehicle to tenor. So the tenor is the purpose of the word and vehicle is an instrument to help the desired purpose. Whenever, in a paradoxical image, the expressive purpose of the metaphor is considered, the vehicle should be conceived in such a way as to be incompatible with a word in the poem, then by eliminating the vehicle, the paradox will be remov. (Vahidian Kamyar, 1997: 284). In the metaphorical paradox, the vehicle must be such that it makes a paradox with the word in the poem and by removing the vehicle, the paradox will be disappeared. One of the most important elements of imagery techniques in the poetry of these two poets is recognition. By using the recognition, they strive to give life to all phenomena and objects. Therefore, to translate their feelings, they use implicit metaphor. In addition to applying the implicit metaphor, explicit metaphors are also found in the poems of two poets. Another paradoxical style in the poetry of these two poets is using irony. In this figure of speech, the vehicle (superficial words) is such that make contradictions with the words of the language, and then this contradiction is removed by eliminating the vehicle. Another literary style in applied paradoxes of the poets is using chiasmus and shatah, that is, the poet uses the combination of opposing words and then by subordinating conjunction of "and" and moving the arrangement of words, make a monotonic relation with the elementary composition. This artistic device in an impossible setting, and then movement of the words, and finally the coherence between them, first arouses an ambiguity that will be feasible by contemplation and discovering the main idea of the poet. 4.Conclusion A Part of Al-Bayati and Shafiei Kadkanie's insight is related to paradoxical images that in its structure, has poetic anxiety. Choosing vocabulary, deviation of norms, and paying attention to aesthetic aspects of the word are important features in the poetic contradictions of these two poets. The paradoxical application of their pomes can be analyzed on the basis linguistic and literary construction. Paradoxical expressions are observed both in the form of predicate and combination in their poems, with a higher frequency of predicate. In many of the paradoxical images of these two poets, it can be possible to observe clear imagery which shows a similarly emotional space, which is what led us to perform this literary study . One of these images is lightness-darkness and the other is the image of death and life in which they reflect hope. Two poets use the elements of nature in paradoxical terms for symbolic expression of concepts whose frequency is higher in Shafiei Kadkani's poetry due to his ruralistic spirit. If al-Bayati expresses his paradoxical poems in the form of death, homeland, prison and fire, Shafiei Kadkani reflects those ideas by the nature and subtle words. In some Shafiei Kadkani paradoxes, in particular, "the black light of devil", a kind of shatah can be seen that cannot be considered a place for this perspective in Al-Bayati's paradoxes. In the paradoxes of Al-Bayati due to socialist beliefs, sorrow and sadness can be felt more than Shafiei Kadkani, although the veins of hope are often obvious in the poetry of the two poets. These two poets do not try to hide the content for the reader, but it can be understood with a little contemplation and searching meaning in the ambiguity and layers of the word. Therefore, paradoxical images can be one of the reasons of acceptance of their poems. Keywords:Paradox, Comparative Literature, Contemporary Arabic and Persian Poetry, Abd al-Wahhab Al-Bayati, Shafiei Kadkani. References [In Persian]: -Abbasi, H. (2008), Rain’s Book of Travel. 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Tehran: Farzan Rooz. -Tehran: Amir Kabir. *Date received: 04/06/2019 Date accepted: 25/11/2019 1 Ph.D. Candidate of Arabic Language and Literature, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, University of Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran, Email: [email protected] 2. Faculty Member of Arabic Language and Literature, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran Email: [email protected] (Corresponding author
