19 research outputs found
DESIGN OF CURRICULUM FOR EDUCATIONAL EVALUATION IN THE LIGHT OF (QUALITY MATTERS) STANDARDS AND IT'S EFFICIENCY IN DEVELOP ELECTRONIC EVALUATION SKILLS FOR STUDENTS FEMALES AT EDUCATION IN KING SAUD UNIVERSITY
No full textهدفت هذه الدراسة إلى تصميم مقرَّرٍ إلكترونيٍّ للتقويم التربويِّ في ضوء معاييرِ كواليتي ماترز Quality Matters، وقياس فاعليَّته في تنمية مهاراتِ التقويم الإلكترونيِّ لدى (42) طالبة من طالباتِ كلِّيَّةِ التربية بجامعةِ الملك سُعُودٍ وهي مجموعة الدراسة التجريبية، طُبِقَ عليهن: (الاختبار المعرفي لمهارات التقويم الإلكتروني لمقرر التقويم التربوي، وثلاث بطاقات لملاحظة الجوانبَ المهاريَّةَ لمهارات التقويم الإلكترونيِّ). وبعد إجراء المعالجات الإحصائية أظهرت نتائج الدراسة إلى: وجود فرق دال إحصائيًا عند مستوى ( a≤ 0.01) بين متوسطي درجات عيِّنة الدِّراسة في التطبيقين القبلي والبعدي للاختبار التحصيليِّ للجانب المعرفيِّ لمهارات التقويم الإلكترونيِّ لمقرر التقويم التربوي لدى طالباتِ كلِّيَّةِ التربية بجامعةِ الملك سُعُودٍ، وذلك لصالح متوسط درجات التطبيق البعدي. ووجود فرق دال إحصائيًا عند مستوى ( a≤ 0.01) بين متوسطي درجات عيِّنة الدِّراسة في التطبيقين القبلي والبعدي لجميع المهارات الرئيسة والدرجة الكلية لبطاقات ملاحظة الجانب الأدائيِّ (الاختبارات الإلكترونية، الاستبانة الإلكترونية، ملف الانجاز الإلكتروني) لمهارات التقويم الإلكترونيِّ لمقرر التقويم التربوي لدى طالباتِ كلِّيَّةِ التربية بجامعةِ الملك سُعُودٍ، وذلك لصالح متوسط درجات التطبيق البعدي في جميع الحالات. مع وجود فاعلية التصميمُ المقترح لمقرَّرٍ التقويم التَّرْبَوِيِّ في ضَوْءِ مَعَايِيرِ Quality Matters في تنمية مهارات التقويم الإلكتروني لدى طالبات كلية التربية بجامعة الملك سعود. وقد أوصت الدراسة بما يلي: تصميم مقررات كلية التربية في ضوء معايير Quality Matters. وتدريب أعضاء هيئة التدريس على تصميم مقررات إلكترونية في ضوء معايير Quality Matters. والاهتمام بتنمية مهارات التقويم الإلكتروني لدى الطالبات المعلمات في جميع كليات التربية. والاستفادة من المقرر في تدريب المعلمات أثناء الخدمة على مهارات التقويم الإلكتروني. وقدمت الدراسة مجموعة مقترحات منها : دراسة اتجاهات أعضاء هيئة التدريس والطلاب حول المقرر المقترح ومعوقات تطبيقه. وتصميم بيئة تعليمية في ضوء معايير Quality Matters لتنمية مهارات التقويم الإلكتروني لدى معلمات المرحلة الثانوية.
الكلمات الدلالية: كوالتي ماترز، التقويم الإلكتروني.Abstract: This study aimed to design of electronic curriculum for educational evaluation in the light of Quality Matters standards and measuring effectiveness in develop electronic evaluation skills for (42) students female from students of education college in King Saud University and it's an experimental study group apply to them :(Cognitive test for electronic evaluation skills for educational evaluation curriculum and three card for notice skills sides for electronic evaluation skills).
After proceed the statistical treatments, the study results showed the following:
There is a statistically function difference at the level (α >01) between the average scores of the study sample in after and before application for the collective test for cognitive side foe electronic evaluation skills for educational evaluation curriculum for education college students in King Saud University for the benefit of before application scores average.
There is a statistically function difference at the level (α >01) between the average scores of the study sample in after and before application for all main skills and total score for performance side notice cards (Electronic tests, Electronic questionnaire, Electronic achievement file) for electronic evaluation skills for educational evaluation curriculum for education college students in King Saud University for the benefit of before application scores average.
Suggested design efficiency for educational evaluation curriculum in the light of Quality Matters standards for education college students in King Saud University in electronic evaluation skills development.
Recommendations:
Design education college curriculum in the light of Quality Matters standards.
Training faculty members on design electronic curriculums in the light of Quality Matters standards.
Interesting in electronic evaluation skills development for students' teachers in all education colleges.
Benefit from the curriculum to training teachers during the service on electronic evaluation skills.
Suggestions:
Study the attitudes of faculty members and students about the suggested curriculum and barrier of it's application.
Design an educational environment in the light of Quality Matters standards to develop electronic evaluation skills for secondary school level teachers.
Key Word: Quality Matters- electronic evaluatio
Removal of Lead Ions from Aqueous Solutions Using Polyaniline Polystyrene Nanocomposites
No full textWater pollution is an issue of grave importance worldwide, especially in countries that boast of a large number of industries. High concentration of heavy metal ions such as lead, nickel, etc are often found in industrial waste water and can have adverse affects on human health. Over the years a variety of methods, both physical and chemical ones, are reported to have been used for removal of heavy metal ions from water such as filtration and advanced oxidation [1, 2], etc. Adsorption is among the most widely used techniques due to its simplicity, reasonable operational conditions and cost-effective nature. The primary physical property of any absorbent is its surface area and structure. PANI is used due to the presence of primary and secondary amines functional groups which absorb heavy metals. However, due to poor solubility of PANI in common solvents it is made into composite with polystyrene which has strong mechanical properties. In this study a PS/PANI nanocomposite was prepared using the casting method; the composite was then investigated for its heavy metal ion absorption potential.qscienc
Effect of Trace 100 vppm H2S on the Corrosion Behaviour of Plain Carbon and Microalloyed Steels in a Predominant Sweet Environment in High Flow Regime
No full textWe investigate the effects of the presence of trace (100 vppm) H2S on the corrosion behaviour of plain carbon steel and its various micro-alloyed counterparts in a CO2 saturated (sweet) brine (0.5 M NaCl) environment, in a high flow regime (1000 RPM), at 80oC in a slightly acidic environment (pH 6.6). Potentiostatic current transients indicate that the presence of trace amount of trace H2S in a predominantly sweet regime, where the partial pressure ratio of CO2 and H2S (pCO2:pH2S) is ?10000:1, shows a very different corrosion behaviour for both plain carbon steels and as well as micro-alloyed steels. In presence of trace H2S, current density starts dropping much earlier compared to H2S free standalone CO2 environment. Trace amount of H2S also induces faster passivation of the corrosion scale, especially for alloys with relatively high Mo (0.7 wt.%) and Ni (1.4 wt.%) content, suggesting that Mo and Ni have a strong effect in presence of trace H2S. On the basis of available literature, we speculate that the effects observed in presence of trace H2S is due to the formation of Mackinawite which forms on the steel surface immediately via solid state reaction and micro-alloying with some specific elements catalyzes the formation of mackinawite and/or assists formation of more stable sulfide phase(s), causing a faster current drop and passivation. Modeling of the hypothesis is currently in progress. Keywords: Micro-alloying, CO2 corrosion, Flow effect, RDE, Plain carbon steel, Cr-Mo-Ni steel. Figure: Potentiostatic current transient for various plain carbon and micro-alloyed steels. Condition - pH: 6.6, Temp: 80oC, Flow: 1000 RPM, @ anodic over potential: Open Circuit Potentials (OCP) +150 mVqscienc
Electrospun highly corrosion-resistant polystyrene–nickel oxide superhydrophobic nanocomposite coating
No full textA key challenge in producing superhydrophobic coatings (SHC) is to tailor the surface morphology on the micro-nanometer scale. In this work, a feasible and straightforward route was employed to manufacture polystyrene/nickel oxide (PSN) nanocomposite superhydrophobic coatings on aluminum alloys to mitigate their corrosion in a saline environment. Different techniques were employed to explore the influence of the addition of NiO nanoparticles to the as-prepared coatings. PSN-2 composite with ~ 4.3 wt% of NiO exhibited the highest water contact angle (WCA) of 155° ± 2 and contact angle hysteresis (CAH) of 5°. Graphic abstract: EIS Nyquist plots of 3 g of electrospun polystyrene coatings (a) without and with (b) 0.1, (c) 0.15, and (d) 0.2 g of NiO. [Figure not available: see fulltext.
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textNatalia V Bhattacharjee, Austin E Schumacher, Amirali Aali, Yohannes Habtegiorgis Abate, Rouzbeh Abbasgholizadeh, Mohammadreza Abbasian, Mohsen Abbasi-Kangevari, Hedayat Abbastabar, Samar Abd ElHafeez, Sherief Abd-Elsalam, Mohammad Abdollahi, Mohammad-Amin Abdollahifar, Meriem Abdoun, Auwal Abdullahi, Mesfin Abebe, Samrawit Shawel Abebe, Olumide Abiodun, Hassan Abolhassani, Meysam Abolmaali, Mohamed Abouzid, Girma Beressa Aboye, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Woldu Aberhe Abrha, Michael R M Abrigo, Dariush Abtahi, Hasan Abualruz, Bilyaminu Abubakar, Eman Abu-Gharbieh, Niveen ME Abu-Rmeileh, Tadele Girum Girum Adal, Mesafint Molla Adane, Oluwafemi Atanda Adeagbo Adeagbo, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Victor Adekanmbi, Bashir Aden, Abiola Victor Adepoju, Olatunji O Adetokunboh, Juliana Bunmi Adetunji, Daniel Adedayo Adeyinka, Olorunsola Israel Adeyomoye, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah Adnani, Saryia Adra, Rotimi Felix Afolabi, Shadi Afyouni, Muhammad Sohail Afzal, Saira Afzal, Shahin Aghamiri, Antonella Agodi, Williams Agyemang-Duah, Bright Opoku Ahinkorah, Austin J Ahlstrom, Aqeel Ahmad, Danish Ahmad, Firdos Ahmad, Muayyad M Ahmad, Sajjad Ahmad, Tauseef Ahmad, Ali Ahmed, Ayman Ahmed, Haroon Ahmed, Luai A Ahmed, Meqdad Saleh Ahmed, Syed Anees Ahmed, Marjan Ajami, Budi Aji, Gizachew Taddesse Akalu, Hossein Akbarialiabad, Rufus Olusola Akinyemi, Mohammed Ahmed Akkaif, Sreelatha Akkala, Hanadi Al Hamad, Syed Mahfuz Al Hasan, Mohammad Al Qadire, Tareq Mohammed Ali AL-Ahdal, Samer O Alalalmeh, Tariq A Alalwan, Ziyad Al-Aly, Khurshid Alam, Rasmieh Mustafa Al-amer, Fahad Mashhour Alanezi, Turki M Alanzi, Almaza Albakri, Mohammed Albashtawy, Mohammad T AlBataineh, Hediyeh Alemi, Sharifullah Alemi, Yihun Mulugeta Alemu, Ayman Al-Eyadhy, Adel Ali Saeed Al-Gheethi, Khalid F Alhabib, Noora Alhajri, Fadwa Alhalaiqa Naji Alhalaiqa, Robert Kaba Alhassan, Abid Ali, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Liaqat Ali, Mohammed Usman Ali, Rafat Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait Ali, Sheikh Mohammad Alif, Mohammad Aligol, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Mohammad A M Aljasir, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Sabah Al-Marwani, Joseph Uy Almazan, Hesham M Al-Mekhlafi, Omar Almidani, Mahmoud A Alomari, Basem Al-Omari, Jaber S Alqahtani, Ahmed Yaseen Alqutaibi, Rajaa M Al-Raddadi, Salman Khalifah Al-Sabah, Awais Altaf, Jaffar A Al-Tawfiq, Khalid A Altirkawi, Deborah Oyine Aluh, Farrukh Jawad Alvi, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Hassan Alwafi, Yaser Mohammed Al-Worafi, Hany Aly, Safwat Aly, Karem H Alzoubi, Edward Kwabena Ameyaw, Tarek Tawfik Amin, Alireza Amindarolzarbi, Mostafa Amini-Rarani, Sohrab Amiri, Irene Gyamfuah Ampomah, Dickson A Amugsi, Ganiyu Adeniyi Amusa, Robert Ancuceanu, Deanna Anderlini, Pedro Prata Andrade, Catalina Liliana Andrei, Tudorel Andrei, Abhishek Anil, Sneha Anil, Adnan Ansar, Alireza Ansari-Moghaddam, Catherine M Antony, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Saeid Anvari, SALEHA ANWAR, Razique Anwer, Anayochukwu Edward Anyasodor, Jalal Arabloo, Razman Arabzadeh Bahri, Elshaimaa A Arafa, Mosab Arafat, Ana Margarida Araújo, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Abdulfatai Aremu, Timur Aripov, Mesay Arkew, Benedetta Armocida, Johan Ärnlöv, Mahwish Arooj, Anton A Artamonov, Judie Arulappan, Raphael Taiwo Aruleba, Ashokan Arumugam, Mohsen Asadi-Lari, Zatollah Asemi, Saeed Asgary, Mona Asghariahmadabad, Mohammad Asghari-Jafarabadi, Mubarek Yesse Ashemo, Muhammad Ashraf, Tahira Ashraf, Marvellous O Asika, Seyyed Shamsadin Athari, Maha Moh'd Wahbi Atout, Alok Atreya, Avinash Aujayeb, Marcel Ausloos, Abolfazl Avan, Amlaku Mulat Aweke, Getnet Melaku Ayele, Seyed Mohammad Ayyoubzadeh, Sina Azadnajafabad, Rui M S Azevedo, Ahmed Y Azzam, Muhammad Badar, Ashish D Badiye, Soroush Baghdadi, Nasser Bagheri, Sara Bagherieh, Najmeh Bahmanziari, Ruhai Bai, Atif Amin Baig, Jennifer L Baker, Abdulaziz T Bako, Ravleen Kaur Bakshi, Madhan Balasubramanian, Ovidiu Constantin Baltatu, Kiran Bam, Maciej Banach, Soham Bandyopadhyay, Biswajit Banik, Palash Chandra Banik, Hansi Bansal, Mehmet Firat Baran, Martina Barchitta, Mainak Bardhan, Erfan Bardideh, Suzanne Lyn Barker-Collo, Till Winfried Bärnighausen, Francesco Barone-Adesi, Hiba Jawdat Barqawi, Amadou Barrow, Sandra Barteit, Zarrin Basharat, Asma'u I J Bashir, Hameed Akande Bashiru, Afisu Basiru, João Diogo Basso, Sanjay Basu, Abdul-Monim Mohammad Batiha, Kavita Batra, Bernhard T Baune, Mohsen Bayati, Tahmina Begum, Emad Behboudi, Amir Hossein Behnoush, Maryam Beiranvand, Diana Fernanda Bejarano Ramirez, Alehegn Bekele, Sefealem Assefa Belay, Uzma Iqbal Belgaumi, Michelle L Bell, Olorunjuwon Omolaja Bello, Apostolos Beloukas, Isabela M Bensenor, Zombor Berezvai, Alemshet Yirga Berhie, Amiel Nazer C Bermudez, Paulo J G Bettencourt, Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula, Nikha Bhardwaj, Pankaj Bhardwaj, Prarthna V Bhardwaj, Sonu Bhaskar, Vivek Bhat, Gurjit Kaur Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh Bhatti, Manpreet S Bhatti, Rajbir Bhatti, Antonio Biondi, Catherine Bisignano, Atanu Biswas, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Veera R Bitra, Tone Bjørge, Elye Bliss, Micheal Kofi Boachie, Anca Vasilica Bobirca, Virginia Bodolica, Aadam Olalekan Bodunrin, Eyob Ketema Bogale, Kassawmar Angaw Bogale, Milad Bonakdar Hashemi, Berrak Bora Basara, Souad Bouaoud, Dejana Braithwaite, Michael Brauer, Nicholas J K Breitborde, Dana Bryazka, Norma B Bulamu, Danilo Buonsenso, Katrin Burkart, Richard A Burns, Yasser Bustanji, Nadeem Shafique Butt, Zahid A Butt, Florentino Luciano Caetano dos Santos, Daniela Calina, Ismael R Campos-Nonato, Fan Cao, Shujin Cao, Angelo Capodici, Giulia Carreras, Andrea Carugno, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Giulio Castelpietra, Maria Sofia Cattaruzza, Arthur Caye, Luca Cegolon, Francieli Cembranel, Ester Cerin, Joshua Chadwick, Yaacoub Chahine, Chiranjib Chakraborty, Julian Chalek, Jeffrey Shi Kai Chan, Periklis Charalampous, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Sarika Chaturvedi, Malizgani Paul Chavula, An-Tian Chen, Haowei Chen, Simiao Chen, Gerald Chi, Fatemeh Chichagi, Ju-Huei Chien, Patrick R Ching, William C S Cho, Sungchul Choi, Bryan Chong, Hitesh Chopra, Sonali Gajanan Choudhari, Devasahayam J Christopher, Dinh-Toi Chu, Isaac Sunday Chukwu, Eric Chung, Sheng-Chia Chung, Zinhle Cindi, Iolanda Cioffi, Raffaela Ciuffreda, Rafael M Claro, Kaleb Coberly, Alyssa Columbus, Haley Comfort, Joao Conde, Michael H Criqui, Natália Cruz-Martins, Silvia Magali Cuadra-Hernández, Sriharsha Dadana, Omid Dadras, Tukur Dahiru, Zhaoli Dai, Bronte Dalton, Giovanni Damiani, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Jai K Das, Saswati Das, Mohsen Dashti, Anna Dastiridou, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Kairat Davletov, Aklilu Tamire Debele, Shayom Debopadhaya, Somayeh Delavari, Ivan Delgado-Enciso, Dessalegn Demeke, Berecha Hundessa Demessa, Xinlei Deng, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Nikolaos Dervenis, Hardik Dineshbhai Desai, Rupak Desai, Vinoth Gnana Chellaiyan Devanbu, Arkadeep Dhali, Kuldeep Dhama, Meghnath Dhimal, Vishal R Dhulipala, Diana Dias da Silva, Daniel Diaz, Michael J Diaz, Adriana Dima, Delaney D Ding, M Ashworth Dirac, Thanh Chi Do, Thao Huynh Phuong Do, Camila Bruneli do Prado, Sushil Dohare, Wanyue Dong, Mario D'Oria, Wendel Mombaque dos Santos, Leila Doshmangir, Robert Kokou Dowou, Ashel Chelsea Dsouza, Haneil Larson Dsouza, Viola Dsouza, John Dube, Joe Duprey, Andre Rodrigues Duraes, Senbagam Duraisamy, Oyewole Christopher Durojaiye, Sulagna Dutta, Laura Dwyer-Lindgren, Paulina Agnieszka Dzianach, Arkadiusz Marian Dziedzic, Alireza Ebrahimi, Hisham Atan Edinur, Kristina Edvardsson, Ferry Efendi, Terje Andreas Eikemo, Michael Ekholuenetale, Maha El Tantawi, Noha Mousaad Elemam, Ghada Metwally Tawfik ElGohary, Muhammed Elhadi, Legesse Tesfaye Elilo, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou Elmeligy, Mohamed A Elmonem, Mohammed Elshaer, Ibrahim Elsohaby, Amir Emami Zeydi, Luchuo Engelbert Bain, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Francesco Esposito, Kara Estep, Farshid Etaee, Natalia Fabin, Adeniyi Francis Fagbamigbe, Saman Fahimi, Aliasghar Fakhri-Demeshghieh, Luca Falzone, Ali Faramarzi, MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud Faris, Sam Farmer, Andre Faro, Abidemi Omolara Fasanmi, Ali Fatehizadeh, Nelsensius Klau Fauk, Pooria Fazeli, Valery L Feigin, Seyed-Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Abdullah Hamid Feroze, Pietro Ferrara, Nuno Ferreira, Getahun Fetensa, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Joanne Flavel, Nataliya A Foigt, Morenike Oluwatoyin Folayan, Artem Alekseevich Fomenkov, Behzad Foroutan, Matteo Foschi, Kayode Raphael Fowobaje, Kate Louise Francis, Alberto Freitas, Takeshi Fukumoto, John E Fuller, Blima Fux, Peter Andras Gaal, Muktar A Gadanya, Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane, Yaseen Galali, Silvano Gallus, Aravind P Gandhi, Balasankar Ganesan, Mohammad Arfat Ganiyani, M.A. Garcia-Gordillo, Naval Garg, Rupesh K Gautam, Federica Gazzelloni, Semiu Olatunde Gbadamosi, Miglas W Gebregergis, Mesfin Gebrehiwot, Tesfay Brhane Gebremariam, Tesfay B B Gebremariam, Teferi Gebru Gebremeskel, Yohannes Fikadu Geda, Simona Roxana Georgescu, Urge Gerema, Habtamu Geremew, Motuma Erena Getachew, Peter W Gething, MohammadReza Ghasemi, Ghazal Ghasempour Dabaghi, Afsaneh Ghasemzadeh, Fariba Ghassemi, Ramy Mohamed Ghazy, Sailaja Ghimire, Asadollah Gholamian, Ali Gholamrezanezhad, Mahsa Ghorbani, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Arun Digambarrao Ghuge, Artyom Urievich Gil, Tiffany K Gill, Matteo Giorgi, Alem Girmay, James C Glasbey, Laszlo Göbölös, Amit Goel, Ali Golchin, Mahaveer Golechha, Pouya Goleij, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Houman Goudarzi, Alessandra C Goulart, Anmol Goyal, Simon Matthew Graham, Michal Grivna, Shi-Yang Guan, Giovanni Guarducci, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen Gubari, Mesay Dechasa Gudeta, Stefano Guicciardi, Snigdha Gulati, David Gulisashvili, Damitha Asanga Gunawardane, Cui Guo, Anish Kumar Gupta, Bhawna Gupta, Manoj Kumar Gupta, Mohak Gupta, Sapna Gupta, Veer Bala Gupta, Vijai Kumar Gupta, Vivek Kumar Gupta, Annie Haakenstad, Farrokh Habibzadeh, Najah R Hadi, Nils Haep, Ramtin Hajibeygi, Sebastian Haller, Rabih Halwani, Randah R Hamadeh, Nadia M Hamdy, Sajid Hameed, Samer Hamidi, Qiuxia Han, Alexis J Handal, Graeme J Hankey, Md Nuruzzaman Haque, Josep Maria Haro, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Ikramul Hasan, Mohammad Jahid Hasan, S.M. Mahmudul Hasan, Hamidreza Hasani, Md Saquib Hasnain, Amr Hassan, Ikrama Hassan, Soheil Hassanipour, Hadi Hassankhani, Simon I Hay, Jeffrey J Hebert, Omar E Hegazi, Mohammad Heidari, Bartosz Helfer, Mehdi Hemmati, Brenda Yuliana Herrera-Serna, Claudiu Herteliu, Kamran Hessami, Kamal Hezam, Yuta Hiraike, Nguyen Quoc Hoan, Ramesh Holla, Nobuyuki Horita, Md Mahbub Hossain, Mohammad Bellal Hossain Hossain, Hassan Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mihaela Hostiuc, Sorin Hostiuc, Mohamed Hsairi, Vivian Chia-rong Hsieh, Chengxi Hu, Junjie Huang, M Mamun Huda, Ayesha Humayun, Javid Hussain, Nawfal R Hussein, Hong-Han Huynh, Bing-Fang Hwang, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Pulwasha Maria Iftikhar, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Irena M Ilic, Milena D Ilic, Mustapha Immurana, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Afrin Iqbal, Md. Rabiul Islam, Nahlah Elkudssiah Ismail, Hiroyasu Iso, Gaetano Isola, Masao Iwagami, Mahalaxmi Iyer, Linda Merin J, Jalil Jaafari, Louis Jacob, Farhad Jadidi-Niaragh, Khushleen Jaggi, Kasra Jahankhani, Nader Jahanmehr, Haitham Jahrami, Akhil Jain, Nityanand Jain, Ammar Abdulrahman Jairoun, Mihajlo Jakovljevic, Elham Jamshidi, Sabzali Javadov, Tahereh Javaheri, Sathish Kumar Jayapal, Shubha Jayaram, Sun Ha Jee, Jayakumar Jeganathan, Anil K Jha, Ravi Prakash Jha, Heng Jiang, Mohammad Jokar, Jost B Jonas, Tamas Joo, Nitin Joseph, Charity Ehimwenma Joshua, Farahnaz Joukar, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Mikk Jürisson, Vaishali K, Billingsley Kaambwa, Abdulkareem Kabir, Ali Kabir, Hannaneh Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Rizwan Kalani, Leila R Kalankesh, Feroze Kaliyadan, Sanjay Kalra, Rajesh Kamath, Sagarika Kamath, Tanuj Kanchan, Edmund Wedam Kanmiki, Kehinde Kazeem Kanmodi, Suthanthira Kannan S, Sushil Kumar Kansal, Rami S Kantar, Neeti Kapoor, Mehrdad Karajizadeh, Manoochehr Karami, Ibraheem M Karaye, Faizan Zaffar Kashoo, Hengameh Kasraei, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Molly B Kassel, Joonas H Kauppila, Foad Kazemi, sara Kazeminia, John H Kempen, Evie Shoshannah Kendal, Kamyab Keshtkar, Mohammad Keykhaei, Himanshu Khajuria, Amirmohammad Khalaji, Nauman Khalid, Anees Ahmed Khalil, Alireza Khalilian, Faham Khamesipour, Ajmal Khan, Asaduzzaman Khan, Ikramullah Khan, M Nuruzzaman Khan, Maseer Khan, Mohammad Jobair Khan, Moien AB Khan, Young-Ho Khang, Shaghayegh Khanmohammadi, Khaled Khatab, Armin Khavandegar, Hamid Reza Khayat Kashani, Feriha Fatima Khidri, Moein Khormali, Mohammad Ali Khosravi, Mahmood Khosrowjerdi, Wondwosen Teklesilasie Kidane, Zemene Demelash Kifle, Julie Sojin Kim, Min Seo Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Kasey E Kinzel, Girmay Tsegay Kiross, Adnan Kisa, Sezer Kisa, Ali-Asghar Kolahi, Farzad Kompani, Gerbrand Koren, Oleksii Korzh, Soewarta Kosen, Sindhura Lakshmi Koulmane Laxminarayana, Kewal Krishan, Varun Krishna, Vijay Krishnamoorthy, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Connor M Kubeisy, Burcu Kucuk Bicer, Md Abdul Kuddus, Mohammed Kuddus, Ilari Kuitunen, Mukhtar Kulimbet, Harish Kumar, Satyajit Kundu, Kunle Rotimi Kunle, Om P Kurmi, Asep Kusnali, Dian Kusuma, Evans F Kyei, Ilias Kyriopoulos, Carlo La Vecchia, Ben Lacey, Muhammad Awwal Ladan, Lucie Laflamme, Chandrakant Lahariya, Daphne Teck Ching Lai, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Judit Lám, Demetris Lamnisos, Iván Landires, Francesco Lanfranchi, Berthold Langguth, Ariane Laplante-Lévesque, Heidi Jane Larson, Anders O Larsson, Savita Lasrado, Kamaluddin Latief, Kaveh Latifinaibin, Long Khanh Dao Le, Nhi Huu Hanh Le, Trang Diep Thanh Le, Caterina Ledda, Munjae Lee, Paul H Lee, Seung Won Lee, Yo Han Lee, Gebretsadik Kiros Lema, Elvynna Leong, Temesgen L Lerango, An Li, Ming-Chieh Li, Shanshan Li, Wei Li, Xiaopan Li, Virendra S Ligade, Stephen S Lim, Ro-Ting Lin, Paulina A Lindstedt, Stefan Listl, Gang Liu, Jue Liu, Xiaofeng Liu, Xuefeng Liu, Yuewei Liu, Erand Llanaj, Rubén López-Bueno, Platon D Lopukhov, László Lorenzovici, Paulo A Lotufo, Jailos Lubinda, Giancarlo Lucchetti, Alessandra Lugo, Raimundas Lunevicius, Hengliang Lv, Zheng Feei Ma, Kelsey Lynn Maass, Monika Machoy, Áurea M Madureira-Carvalho, Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Azzam A Maghazachi, Soleiman Mahjoub, Mansour Adam Mahmoud, Azeem Majeed, Jeadran N Malagón-Rojas, Elaheh Malakan Rad, Kashish Malhotra, Ahmad Azam Malik, Iram Malik, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah A Mamun, Yosef Manla, Yasaman Mansoori, Ali Mansour, Borhan Mansouri, Zeinab Mansouri, Mohammad Ali Mansournia, Joemer C Maravilla, Mirko Marino, Abdoljalal Marjani, Gabriel Martinez, Ramon Martinez-Piedra, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins-Melo, Miquel Martorell, Sharmeen Maryam, Roy Rillera Marzo, Alireza Masoudi, Jishanth Mattumpuram, Richard James Maude, Andrea Maugeri, Erin A May, Mahsa Mayeli, Maryam Mazaheri, John J McGrath, Martin McKee, Anna Laura Wensel McKowen, Susan A McLaughlin, Steven M McPhail, Rahul Mehra, Kamran Mehrabani-Zeinabad, Entezar Mehrabi Nasab, Tesfahun Mekene Meto, Max Alberto Mendez Mendez-Lopez, Walter Mendoza, Ritesh G Menezes, George A Mensah, Alexios-Fotios A Mentis, Sultan Ayoub Meo, Mohsen Merati, Atte Meretoja, Tuomo J Meretoja, Abera M Mersha, Tomislav Mestrovic, Pouya Metanat, Kukulege Chamila Dinushi Mettananda, Sachith Mettananda, Adquate Mhlanga, Laurette Mhlanga, Tianyue Mi, Tomasz Miazgowski, Georgia Micha, Irmina Maria Michalek, Ted R Miller, Le Huu Nhat Minh, Mojgan Mirghafourvand, Erkin M Mirrakhimov, Mizan Kiros Mirutse, Moonis Mirza, Roya Mirzaei, Ashim Mishra, Sanjeev Misra, Philip B Mitchell, Chaitanya Mittal, Babak Moazen, Abdalla Z Mohamed, Ahmed Ismail Mohamed, Jama Mohamed, Mouhand F H Mohamed, Nouh Saad Mohamed, Sakineh Mohammad-Alizadeh-Charandabi, Soheil Mohammadi, Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Mustapha Mohammed, Salahuddin Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H Mokdad, Peyman Mokhtarzadehazar, Hossein Molavi Vardanjani, Sabrina Molinaro, Lorenzo Monasta, Mohammad Ali Moni, Maryam Moradi, Yousef Moradi, Paula Moraga, Rafael Silveira Moreira, Negar Morovatdar, Shane Douglas Morrison, Jakub Morze, Abbas Mosapour, Elias Mossialos, Rohith Motappa, Parsa Mousavi, Amin Mousavi Khaneghah, Christine Mpundu-Kaambwa, Sumaira Mubarik, Lorenzo Muccioli, Francesk Mulita, Kavita Munjal, Efrén Murillo-Zamora, Jonah Musa, Fungai Musaigwa, Ana-Maria Musina, Sathish Muthu, Saravanan Muthupandian, Muhammad Muzaffar, Woojae Myung, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Gabriele Nagel, Pirouz Naghavi, Ganesh R Naik, Gurudatta Naik, Mukhammad David Naimzada, Firzan Nainu, Vinay Nangia, Sreenivas Narasimha Swamy, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Gustavo G Nascimento, Abdallah Y Naser, Mohammad Javad Nasiri, Zuhair S Natto, Javaid Nauman, Muhammad Naveed, Biswa Prakash Nayak, Vinod C Nayak, Rawlance Ndejjo, Sabina Onyinye Nduaguba, Hadush Negash, Chernet Tafere Negesse, Ionut Negoi, Ruxandra Irina Negoi, Seyed Aria Nejadghaderi, Chakib Nejjari, Samata Nepal, Henok Biresaw Netsere, Georges Nguefack-Tsague, Josephine W. Ngunjiri, Dang H Nguyen, Hau Thi Hien Nguyen, Phuong The Nguyen, QuynhAnh P Nguyen, Van Thanh Nguyen, Robina Khan Niazi, Yeshambel T Nigatu, Taxiarchis Konstantinos Nikolouzakis, Ali Nikoobar, Amin Reza Nikpoor, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Lawrence Achilles Nnyanzi, Efaq Ali Noman, Shuhei Nomura, Mamoona Noreen, Nafise Noroozi, Chisom Adaobi Nri-Ezedi, Mengistu H Nunemo, Virginia Nuñez-Samudio, Dieta Nurrika, Jerry John Nutor, Bogdan Oancea, Kehinde O Obamiro, Ismail A Odetokun, Nkechi Martina Odogwu, Martin James O'Donnell, Oluwakemi Ololade Odukoya, Ayodipupo Sikiru Oguntade, James Odhiambo Oguta, In-Hwan Oh, Sylvester Reuben Okeke, Akinkunmi Paul Okekunle, Osaretin Christabel Okonji, Patrick Godwin Okwute, Andrew T Olagunju, Omotola O Olasupo, Matthew Idowu Olatubi, Gláucia Maria Moraes Oliveira, Bolajoko Olubukunola Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Gideon Olamilekan Oluwatunase, Hany A Omar, Goran Latif Omer, Obinna E Onwujekwe, Michal Ordak, Orish Ebere Orisakwe, Verner N Orish, Doris V Ortega-Altamirano, Alberto Ortiz, Esteban Ortiz-Prado, Wael M S Osman, Uchechukwu Levi Osuagwu, Olayinka Osuolale, Adrian Otoiu, Stanislav S Otstavnov, Amel Ouyahia, Guoqing Ouyang, Mayowa O Owolabi, Yaz Ozten, Mahesh Padukudru P A, Mohammad Taha Pahlevan Fallahy, Feng Pan, Hai-Feng Pan, Adrian Pana, Paramjot Panda, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Helena Ullyartha Pangaribuan, Georgios D Panos, Leonidas D Panos, Ioannis Pantazopoulos, Anca Mihaela Pantea Stoian, Romil R Parikh, Seoyeon Park, Ashwaghosha Parthasarathi, Ava Pashaei, Roberto Passera, Hemal M Patel, Jay Patel, Shankargouda Patil, Dimitrios Patoulias, Venkata Suresh Patthipati, Uttam Paudel, Mihaela Paun, Hamidreza Pazoki Toroudi, Spencer A Pease, Amy E Peden, Paolo Pedersini, Minjin Peng, Umberto Pensato, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Prince Peprah, Gavin Pereira, Mario F P Peres, Arokiasamy Perianayagam, Norberto Perico, Simone Perna, Richard G Pestell, Fanny Emily Petermann-Rocha, Hoang Tran Pham, Anil K Philip, Daniela Pierannunzio, Manon Pigeolet, David M Pigott, Evgenii Plotnikov, Dimitri Poddighe, Peter Pollner, Ramesh Poluru, Maarten J Postma, Ghazaleh Pourali, Akram Pourshams, Naeimeh Pourtaheri, Disha Prabhu, Sergio I Prada, Pranil Man Singh Pradhan, Manya Prasad, Akila Prashant, Bharathi M Purohit, Jagadeesh Puvvula, Nameer Hashim Qasim, Ibrahim Qattea, Deepthi R, Mehrdad Rabiee Rad, Amir Radfar, Venkatraman Radhakrishnan, Pourya Raee, Hadi Raeisi Shahraki, Alireza Rafiei, Seyedeh Niloufar Rafiei Alavi, Cat Raggi, Pankaja Raghav Raghav, Fakher Rahim, Md Jillur Rahim, Md. Mosfequr Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Mosiur Rahman, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Vahid Rahmanian, Masoud Rahmati, Niloufar Rahnavard, Pramila Rai, Diego Raimondo, Ali Rajabpour-Sanati, Prashant Rajput, Prasanna Ram, Shakthi Kumaran Ramasamy, Juwel Rana, Kritika Rana, Shailendra Singh Rana, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Nemanja Rancic, Amey Rane, Shubham Ranjan, Chythra R Rao, Indu Ramachandra Rao, Deepthi Rapaka, Davide Rasella, Sina Rashedi, Vahid Rashedi, Mohammad-Mahdi Rashidi, Azad Rasul, Zubair Ahmed Ratan, Giridhara Rathnaiah Babu, Santosh Kumar Rauniyar, Nakul Ravikumar, David Laith Rawaf, Salman Rawaf, Reza Rawassizadeh, Bharat Rawlley, Murali Mohan Rama Krishna Reddy, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed Redwan, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Bhageerathy Reshmi, Nazila Rezaei, Aida Rezaei Nejad, Mohsen Rezaeian, Abanoub Riad, Mavra A Riaz, Jennifer Rickard, Reza Rikhtegar, Hannah Elizabeth Robinson-Oden, Célia Fortuna Rodrigues, Jefferson Antonio Buendia Rodriguez, Ravi Rohilla, Debby Syahru Romadlon, Luca Ronfani, Himanshu Sekhar Rout, Bedanta Roy, Nitai Roy, Priyanka Roy, Enrico Rubagotti, Guilherme de Andrade Ruela, Susan Fred Rumisha, Tilleye Runghien, Manjula S, Chandan S N, Aly M A Saad, Zahra Saadatian, Maha Mohamed Saber-Ayad, Morteza SaberiKamarposhti, Siamak Sabour, Fatos Sada, Basema Saddik, Bashdar Abuzed Sadee, Ehsan Sadeghi, Erfan Sadeghi, Mohammad Reza Saeb, Umar Saeed, Sher Zaman Safi, Dominic Sagoe, Manika Saha, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Soumya Swaroop Sahoo, Monalisha Sahu, Zahra Saif, Joseph W Sakshaug, Payman Salamati, Afeez Abolarinwa Salami, Mohamed A Saleh, Marwa Rashad Salem, Mohammed Z Y Salem, Sohrab Salimi, Sara Samadzadeh, Yoseph Leonardo Samodra, Vijaya Paul Samuel, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Nima Sanadgol, Francesca Sanna, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Haaris Saqib, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Aswini Saravanan, Babak Saravi, Yaser Sarikhani, Tanmay Sarkar, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Gargi Sachin Sarode, Sachin C Sarode, Arash Sarveazad, Brijesh Sathian, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Anudeep Sathyanarayan, Abu Sayeed, Md Abu Sayeed, Nikolaos Scarmeas, Winfried Schlee, Art Schuermans, David C Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Siddharthan Selvaraj, Pallav Sengupta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Dragos Serban, Edson Serván-Mori, Yashendra Sethi, SeyedAhmad SeyedAlinaghi, Seyed Arsalan Seyedi, Allen Seylani, Mahan Shafie, Jaffer Shah, Pritik A Shah, Ataollah Shahbandi, Samiah Shahid, Moyad Jamal Shahwan, Ahme
Characterising acute and chronic care needs: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
No full textChronic care manages long-term, progressive conditions, while acute care addresses short-term conditions. Chronic conditions increasingly strain health systems, which are often unprepared for these demands. This study examines the burden of conditions requiring acute versus chronic care, including sequelae. Conditions and sequelae from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 were classified into acute or chronic care categories. Data were analysed by age, sex, and socio-demographic index, presenting total numbers and contributions to burden metrics such as Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years Lived with Disability (YLD), and Years of Life Lost (YLL). Approximately 68% of DALYs were attributed to chronic care, while 27% were due to acute care. Chronic care needs increased with age, representing 86% of YLDs and 71% of YLLs, and accounting for 93% of YLDs from sequelae. These findings highlight that chronic care needs far exceed acute care needs globally, necessitating health systems to adapt accordingly.
© 2025. The Author(s)
Characterising acute and chronic care needs: insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
No full textChronic care manages long-term, progressive conditions, while acute care addresses short-term conditions. Chronic conditions increasingly strain health systems, which are often unprepared for these demands. This study examines the burden of conditions requiring acute versus chronic care, including sequelae. Conditions and sequelae from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019 were classified into acute or chronic care categories. Data were analysed by age, sex, and socio-demographic index, presenting total numbers and contributions to burden metrics such as Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years Lived with Disability (YLD), and Years of Life Lost (YLL). Approximately 68% of DALYs were attributed to chronic care, while 27% were due to acute care. Chronic care needs increased with age, representing 86% of YLDs and 71% of YLLs, and accounting for 93% of YLDs from sequelae. These findings highlight that chronic care needs far exceed acute care needs globally, necessitating health systems to adapt accordingly
Global, Regional, and National Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risk Factors in 204 Countries and Territories, 1990-2023
No full textBackground: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of mortality and are among the foremost causes of disability globally. CVD burden has continued to increase in most countries since 1990, with trends driven by changing exposures to harmful risk factors, population growth, and population aging. Objectives: We report estimates of global, national, and subnational CVD burden, including 18 subdiseases and 12 associated modifiable risk factors. We analyzed change in CVD burden from 1990 to 2023 and identified drivers of change including population growth, population aging, and risk factor exposure. Methods: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 study, a multinational collaborative research study, quantified burden due to 375 diseases including CVD burden and identified drivers of change from 1990 to 2023 using all available data and statistical models. GBD 2023 estimated the population-level burden of diseases in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2023. Results: CVDs were the leading cause of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and deaths estimated in the GBD. As of 2023, there were 437 million (95% UI: 401 to 465 million) CVD DALYs globally, a 1.4-fold increase from the number in 1990 of 320 million (292 to 344 million). Ischemic heart disease, intracerebral hemorrhage, ischemic stroke, and hypertensive heart disease were the leading cardiovascular causes of DALYs in 2023 globally. As of 2023, age-standardized CVD DALY rates were highest in low and low-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) settings and lowest in high SDI settings. The number of CVD deaths increased globally from 13.1 million (95% UI: 12.2 to 14.0 million) in 1990 to 19.2 million (95% UI: 17.4 to 20.4 million) in 2023. The number of prevalent cases of CVD more than doubled since 1990, with 311 million (95% UI: 294 to 333 million) prevalent cases of CVD in 1990 and 626 million (95% UI: 591 to 672 million) prevalent cases in 2023 globally. A total of 79.6% (95% UI: 75.7% to 82.5%) of CVD burden is attributable to modifiable risk factors 347 million [95% UI: 318 to 373 million] DALYs in 2023). Globally, high systolic blood pressure, dietary risks, high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and air pollution were the modifiable risks responsible for most attributable CVD burden in 2023. Since 1990, changes in exposure to modifiable risk factors have had mixed effects on CVD burden, with increases in high body mass index, high fasting plasma glucose, and low physical activity leading to higher burden, while reductions in tobacco usage have mitigated some of these increases. Population growth and population aging were the main drivers of the increasing burden since 1990, adding 128 million (95% UI: 115 to 139 million) and 139 million (95% UI: 126 to 151 million) CVD DALYs to the increase in CVD burden since 1990. Conclusions: CVD remains the leading cause of disease burden and death worldwide with the greatest burden in low, low-middle, and middle SDI regions. Large variation exists in CVD burden even for countries at similar levels of development, a gap explained substantially by known, modifiable risk factors that are inadequately controlled. The decades-long increase in CVD burden was the result of population growth, population aging, and increased exposure to a subset of risk factors led by metabolic risks. Countries will need to adopt effective health system and public health strategies if they are to progress in achieving global goals to reduce the burden of CVD
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground: Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods: To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings: During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation: Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens
Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
No full textBackground Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. MethodsTo estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. FindingsDuring the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. InterpretationFertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world. FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation
