2,623 research outputs found
Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in a Target Zone: The Portuguese Case
No full textThis work examines the participation of the Portuguese economy in the ERM of the EMS based on some of the main predictions of the target zone literature. The exchange rate distribution reveals that the majority of the observations lie close to the central parity, thus rejecting one of the key predictions of the Krugman (1991) model. Using a M-GARCH model however we confirm that there is a trade-off between exchange rate volatility and interest rates differential volatility. These results express the increased credibility of the Portuguese monetary policy, due manly to the modernisation of the banking and financial system and to the progress made in terms of the disinflation process under an exchange rate target zone policy. In accordance to these results we can say that the participation of the Portuguese escudo in an exchange rate target zone was crucial to create the conditions of stability, credibility and confidence necessary for the adoption of a single currency.Credibility, Exchange rate stability, M-GARCH, ERM, EMS, Volatility and target zones
Laelaspis loeckii Duarte & Rueda-Ramírez & Cunha & Moreira 2022, sp. nov.
No full textLaelaspis loeckii Duarte &Moreira sp. nov. Type specimens: holotype female, five paratype females and one paratype male collected on 26 June 2012 by A. da F. Duarte from soil collected from a grassland, at Posto Santa Adelaide (at Estância São José; 31°51’48”S, 54º10’03’’W; 240 m above sea level), Aceguá, Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. All type specimens deposited at Escola Superior de Agricultura “Luiz de Queiroz”, Universidade de São Paulo, Piracicaba, São Paulo state, Brazil (ESALQ-USP). Diagnosis: female dorsal shield smooth, with usually 37 pairs of setae (r5 missing in all specimens and S1 missing in four of six specimens), including two pairs of extra Px setae and one unpaired extra Jx seta between J4 and J5; setae longer than distance to the respective closest setae, except j1, z1, J5 and Z4 which are shorter; most of setae with basal asymmetric lobe. Unsclerotised lateroventral idiosomal cuticle with eight pairs of lightly serrate setae (r6, R1 – R5, UR1, UR2). Epigynal shield slightly overlapping the anal shield, ornamented with “ V ” and “inverted V ” shaped pattern and with three pairs of setae (st5, Jv1, Zv1) which are very close to the margin. One pair of metapodal platelets. Ten pairs of opisthogastric setae (Jv1–Jv5; Zv1–Zv5); Zv1 and Zv2 smooth and Jv4, Jv5, Zv3–Zv5 with barely distinguishable serration. Epistome subtriangular, with margin undulate and smooth. Fixed and movable cheliceral digits each with one tooth in addition to the apical tooth.Published as part of Duarte, Adriane Da Fonseca, Rueda-Ramírez, Diana, Cunha, Uemerson Silva Da & Moreira, Grazielle Furtado, 2022, Description of a new species of Laelaspis Berlese (Acari: Mesostigmata: Laelapidae) from Brazil, with a key to the species of the Western Hemisphere, pp. 567-576 in Zootaxa 5133 (4) on page 568, DOI: 10.11646/zootaxa.5133.4.7, http://zenodo.org/record/653110
The Fundamentals of the Portuguese Crisis
No full textThis paper analyses the fundamentals of the Portuguese crisis. The financial crisis of 2007 worsened and triggered the current Portuguese crisis. We argue that the main problem the economy is facing is its output stagnation due to a kind of Dutch disease that has created high and increasing levels of indebtedness, low and decreasing levels of saving and has reduced Portuguese competitiveness. Moreover, the existence of a dualist labour market and a new wave of emigration produce inefficiency, increasing unemployment of younger workers and the supply of human capital abroad funded by the Portuguese taxpayers. Governance problems such as poor public budget governance and lack of transparency and accountability are also at stake. These governance problems must be solved to allow the economy to return to its long-run growth path.ntion paid to it than hitherto.Growth, Debt, Saving, Dutch disease, Unemployment, Budget policy
The impact of EU integration on the Portuguese distribution of employees' earnings
No full textThis paper investigates the impact of Portugal’s accession to the EU on employees’ earnings inequality using data for the years 1985 and 1991 from the Quadros de Pessoal database. The distributions of earnings for the two years are compared using distinct empirical methodologies to better clarify the nature of inequality at the aggregate level: cardinal measures of inequality and the Lorenz stochastic dominance approach (Araar and Duclos, 2007); the Relative Distribution approach; and covariate (education) decomposition. Our results indicate that during the period under analysis the median and average earnings of employees increased, pointing to a sort of honeymoon effect of EU integration on Portuguese employees’ earnings, but which was characterized by an increase in earnings inequality. Relative to 1985, in 1991 there were more employees with very low earnings but also more 1991 employees with high earnings and there were also more employees at the bottom end and at the top end of the earnings distribution. Moreover, the analysis of the relative earnings distribution by level of education reveals substantial differences for the top end of the distributions with the proportion of 1991 employees receiving the highest earnings higher than for the original 1985 cohort. These results deserve a deeper investigation since inequality may jeopardize future growth of the Portuguese economy. Similar analysis should also be carried out for recent and predictable future members of the EU.earnings inequality, education inequality, relative distribution, covariate decomposition
Education and growth: an industry-level analysis of the Portuguese manufacturing
No full textTThis paper investigates the education–growth link at the more disaggregate industry level in the Portuguese manufacturing sector with a focus on different levels of education. The insights from new growth theory and a modified and augmented version of the Benhabib and Spiegel (1994) specification are the basis for the empirical analysis of the role of education in innovation and imitation activities highlighting a role for specific schooling levels across industries according to their technological characteristics and its interaction with international trade. We use data for the period 1986–1997, fourteen Portuguese manufacturing industries and panel data econometric techniques. Our most robust finding concerns the relevance of technology spillovers embodied in imports for productivity growth, as long as manufacturing industries employ workers with skills provided by secondary education. The Portuguese manufacturing industry cannot rely on automatic technological catch up for productivity growth so active trade and education policies are crucial to recover from the present bottom position in the rank of OECD productivity levels.education, innovation, technology diffusion, productivity growth, panel data
A importância das infraestruturas no desempenho económico de Moçambique : uma análise aplicada de séries temporais
No full textDissertação de mestrado em Economia (Economia do Crescimento e das Políticas Estruturais), apresentada à Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra, sob a orientação de Adelaide Duarte.Moçambique é um país de rendimento baixo da África Austral que começou a crescer no final dos anos 90 do século XX, mas o re-ranking ascensional do rendimento real per capita colocou o país apenas na sétima posição no seio de um subgrupo de países da Comunidade para o Desenvolvimento da África Austral (SADC8). Desde a Cimeira do G8 em 2005 que as políticas de infraestruturas para África reganharam uma importância acrescida quer para a comunidade internacional quer para os países africanos.Estudamos a relação empírica entre infraestruturas económicas e o desempenho económico em Moçambique, para o período 1974-2011. E os nossos objetivos são três: identificar o sinal e a magnitude do efeito dos a) serviços de infraestruturas sobre o desempenho económico; b) serviços de infraestruturas sobre o investimento privado; e c) despesas do governo sobre o investimento privado. Com base em modelos ADL e técnicas de cointegração, estimamos sete modelos e conseguimos confirmar o impacto positivo das infraestruturas (consumo de eletricidade) no PIB real per capita e na taxa de investimento, o que está em conformidade com a literatura do crescimento sobre o assunto; no entanto os resultados de c) apontam para a possibilidade dos benefícios sobre o desempenho económico e investimento privado provenientes das infraestruturas poderem perigar, por isso políticas de governança deverão ser também consideradas e implementadas
IDE e desenvolvimento desigual : análise aplicada às províncias chinesas
No full textTrabalho de projeto do mestrado em Economia (Economia do Crescimento e das Políticas Estruturais), apresentado à Faculdade de Economia da Universidade de Coimbra, sob a orientação de Adelaide Duarte.A China tem experimentado um crescimento vibrante desde as reformas económicas
iniciadas em 1979 e o IDE tem desempenhado um papel crucial nesse processo. Ao
mesmo tempo as reformas económicas orientadas para o mercado iniciaram-se apenas
em algumas províncias da região leste da China. Por isso, queremos identificar o
papel desempenhado pelo IDE no desenvolvimento das 31 províncias Chinesas e
entre as províncias das três regiões – este, oeste e central, nos últimos 20 anos.
Desenvolvemos uma análise em dois passos; primeiro descrevemos quantitativamente
as províncias e as regiões através de indicadores económicos relevantes. Depois, com
o auxílio de modelos de painel estático, estimamos equações de beta-convergência
quer absoluta, quer condicionada. Os nossos resultados confirmam a beta
convergência absoluta para a amostra total e também para as regiões oeste e central.
Estes resultados são confirmados pelas estimações de beta convergência condicionada
mas o papel positivo desempenhado pelo IDE no crescimento económico é apenas
confirmado para a amostra global e para a região central
Exchange Rate Mean Reversion within a Target Zone: Evidence from a Country on the Periphery of the ERM
No full textThe aim of this study is to assess to what extent the Portuguese participation in the European Monetary System (EMS) has been characterized by mean reverting behaviour, as predicted by the exchange rate target zone model developed by Krugman (1991). For this purpose, a new class of mean reversion tests is introduced. The empirical analysis of mean reversion in the Portuguese exchange rate shows that most of the traditional unit root and stationarity tests point to the nonstationarity of the exchange rate within the band. However, using a set of variance-ratio tests, it was possible to detect the presence of a martingale difference sequence. This suggests that the Portuguese foreign exchange market has functioned efficiently, allowing us to conclude that the adoption of an exchange rate target zone regime has contributed decisively to the creation of the macroeconomic stability conditions necessary for the participation of Portugal in the euro area.difference sequence, mean reversion, stationarity, target zones and unit roots
Regimes de taxas de câmbio com zonas ou bandas alvo : teoria e aplicação à economia portuguesa
No full textEsta dissertação procura elucidar a escolha histórica dos regimes de taxas de câmbio com zonas ou bandas alvo e analisar o seu funcionamento no âmbito da participação do escudo no MTC do SME, tendo em conta os principais resultados e previsões decorrentes da mais recente literatura sobre zonas alvo.
A distribuição estatística da taxa de câmbio permitiu constatar que a maioria das observações tende a situar-se nas proximidades da paridade central, rejeitando assim uma das principais previsões do modelo de Krugman (1991). Verificou-se igualmente que a sua volatilidade tendeu a aumentar à medida que o escudo se aproximou dos limites da banda de flutuação. Já a volatilidade dos diferenciais das taxas de juro apresentou valores mínimos no centro da banda e crescentes junto dos limites da zona alvo. Confirmou-se a existência de um trade-off entre a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio e a volatilidade do diferencial das taxas de juro com recurso a um modelo M-GARCH.
Não se verificou econometricamente nem a existência de uma relação determinista negativa entre o diferencial das taxas de juro e o desvio da taxa de câmbio em relação à paridade central, nem a relação não linear, em forma de S, entre a taxa de câmbio e as suas determinantes fundamentais. A presença de uma tendência negativa no diferencial das taxas de juro justifica os resultados encontrados. A trajectória observada reflecte, todavia, o aumento de credibilidade da política monetária portuguesa. A estabilidade cambial pôde assim ser prosseguida, enquadrada pelo objectivo prioritário de estabilidade dos preços, tendo em vista a participação de Portugal na zona euro.
O estudo da característica de estacionaridade das séries da taxa de câmbio através de um conjunto de testes baseados na Rácio das Variâncias permitiu confirmar que o mercado cambial funcionou de forma eficiente, apesar de não existir um comportamento de reversão dentro da banda, contribuindo decisivamente para a estabilização da taxa de câmbio. O processo de integração de Portugal deverá assim servir de exemplo a outras pequenas economias abertas no sentido em que terão todo o interesse em fazer parte das grandes áreas monetárias dominante.This dissertation studies in an historical perspective the factors behind the use of exchange rate target zones. The participation of the Portuguese Escudo in the exchange rate mechanism (ERM) of the European Monetary System (EMS) is analyzed in detail, with the aim of comparing its functioning with the main results and predictions produced by the literature on this topic.
The research presented here innovates by bringing together an historicaleconomic perspective and an applied-theoretical perspective, which are used to analyze a small open economy with little weight in the EMS. The results obtained are both positive and normative, and are based on bilateral and multilateral analyses of the ERM.
The empirical distribution of the Escudo’s exchange rate shows that most observations lie near the central parity, which contradicts a main prediction derived from Krugman’s (1991) model. Another empirical fact is that volatility increased as the exchange rate moved nearer the edge of floatation bands. On the other hand, the volatility of interest rate differentials was lower near the center of the band, and higher near the edge. The existence of a trade-off between exchange rate volatility and the volatility of interest rate differentials was confirmed by means of an M-GARCH model. Our econometric analysis did not find evidence of a deterministic negative relation between interest rate differentials and exchange rate deviations from central parity. We also did not find evidence of a non-linear, S-shaped, relation between the exchange rate and its fundamental determinants. The presence of a negative trend in the interest rate differential explains these results. However, the observed trajectory reflects the increased credibility of Portuguese monetary policy. Exchange rate stability, framed within the main goal of price stability, was therefore feasible, en route to joining the Euro area.
The application of variance ratio stationarity tests provided confirmation of the efficiency of foreign exchange markets, despite absence of mean reversion within the band. This contributed decisively to exchange rate stabilization. Portugal’s European integration process must therefore be used as an example for other small open economies, which have an interest in joining one of the dominant monetary areas
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