111 research outputs found
Foreign direct investment and growth causal-nexus in economic community of West African States: Evidence from spectral causality
No full textThe paper examines the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth (GDP) in thirteen ECOWAS countries using both time domain and frequency domain testing procedures using annual data from 1970 to 2015. The results showed that time domain is not adequate in detecting causality. The time domain detected causality in only four out of thirteen countries whilst the frequency domain detected causality at different frequencies and cycles in nine out of thirteen countries. The findings of this study indicate the importance of frequency domain causality, that it decomposes causality at different frequencies and subsequently detects causality at certain cycles lengths. The general observation that economic growth leads FDI calls for ECOWAS leaders to rethink about painful sacrifices they make to attract FDI into the region
Susceptibility of Stock Market Returns to International Economic Policy: Evidence from Effective Transfer Entropy of Africa with the Implication for Open Innovation
No full textThis study contributes to the scant finance literature on information flow from international economic policy uncertainty to emerging stock markets in Africa, using daily US economic policy uncertainty as a proxy and the daily stock market index for Botswana, Egypt, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, Namibia, South Africa, and Zambia from 31 December 2010 to 27 May 2020, using the Rényi effective transfer entropy. International economic policy uncertainty transmits significant information to Egypt, Ghana, Morocco, Namibia, and South Africa, and insignificant information to Botswana, Kenya, Nigeria, and Zambia. The asymmetry in the information transfer tends to make the African market an alternative for the diversification of international portfolios when the uncertainty of the global economic policy is on the rise. The findings also have implications for the adoption of open innovation in African stock markets
Implications of Oil Price Shocks for Monetary Policy in Ghana: A Vector Error Correction Model
No full textWe estimate a Vector Error Correction Model to explore the long run and short run linkages between the world crude oil price and economic activity in Ghana for the period 1970:1 to 2006:4. The results point out that there is a long run relationship between the variables under consideration. We find that an unexpected oil price increase is followed by an increase in price level and a decline in output in Ghana. We argue that monetary policy has in the past been with the intention of lessening negative growth consequences of oil price shocks, at the cost of higher inflation
Currency union and foreign direct investment inflow: Evidence from Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS)
No full textThis study investigates the effect of currency union membership on foreign direct investment inflow to ECOWAS subregion. The study employed panel dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) to estimate a panel data of fifteen ECOWAS countries from 1995 to 2010 with the framework of the gravity model. The result indicates a positive effect of a currency union on FDI inflow to ECOWAS, which shows that the presence of a currency union is likely to increase FDI by 46%. The control variables; political constraint, current account and trade openness is significant in explaining FDI inflow to ECOWAS. The implications of the findings are that currency union positively influences the flow of FDI into ECOWAS region, and this requires stable political environment, financial and trade openness. It goes to suggest that adoption of common currency should go with these factors to maximize the benefit of currency union membership in the region
Foreign direct investment and economic growth causal-nexus in economic community of West African States: Evidence from spectral causality
No full textThe paper examines the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth (GDP) in thirteen ECOWAS countries using both time domain and frequency domain testing procedures using annual data from 1970 to 2015. The results showed that time domain is not adequate in detecting causality. The time domain detected causality in only four out of thirteen countries whilst the frequency domain detected causality at different frequencies and cycles in nine out of thirteen countries. The findings of this study indicate the importance of frequency domain causality, that it decomposes causality at different frequencies and subsequently detects causality at certain cycles lengths. The general observation that economic growth leads FDI calls for ECOWAS leaders to rethink about painful sacrifices they make to attract FDI into the region
Financial Liberalization and Growth in Ghana: An Application of the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach
No full text
Threshold Cointegration Approach for Assessing the Impact of US Economic Policy Uncertainty on Monetary Policy Decision of African Countries
No full textThis study uses threshold cointegration technique to ascertain the relationship between United States (US) economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and monetary policy rate (MPR) of each of the four African countries, namely Egypt, Ghana, Namibia and South Africa using monthly data from March 1998 to April 2020. The impact of US EPU on MPR of each country is assessed by examining the linear cointegration, asymmetric cointegration and causal relationships in the frequency domain between the US EPU and MPR of each African country. The findings provide evidence of long-run threshold cointegration and the adjustment mechanisms towards long-run equilibrium are asymmetric in the short run for the MPR models for Ghana, Namibia and South Africa in the M-TAR specification except for Egypt’s MPR model which does not provide evidence of asymmetric adjustment towards the equilibrium position. The bivariate analysis performed in the spectral frequency domain suggests unidirectional causality between US EPU and MPR of each country and that, the US EPU influences the MPR of each country in the long run. The findings provide important guidelines to monetary policy reviewers to take policy stance that would stimulate economic growth amid US policy uncertainties
Do macroeconomic variables play any role in the stock market movement in Ghana?
No full textThis study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock prices. We use the Databank stock index to represent the stock market and (a) inward foreign direct investments, (b) the treasury bill rate (as a measure of interest rates), (c) the consumer price index (as a measure of inflation), (d)Average crude oil prices , and (e) the exchange rate as macroeconomic variables. We analyse quarterly data for the above variables from 1991.1 to 2007.4. employing cointegration test, vector error correction models (VECM). These tests examine both long-run and short-run dynamic relationships between the stock market index and the economic variables. The paper established that there is cointegration between macroeconomic variable and Stock prices in Ghana indicating long run relationship. The VECM analyses shows that the lagged values of interest rate and inflation has a significant influence on the stock market. The inward foreign direct investments, the oil prices , and the exchange rate demonstrate weak influence on price changes. In terms of policy implication, the establishment of lead lag relation indicate that the DSI is not informational efficient with respect to interest rate, inflation inward FDI, Exchange rate and world Oil prices.Stock Market, Cointegration, Toatl derivative, Stock duration, partial differentiation
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