1,721,024 research outputs found
Government deficits, wealth effects and the price level in an optimizing euro-model
No full textIn the context of the current policy debate on the reform of European fiscal rules, there is wide consensus on the need to place more attention on debt-GDP ratios. Proposals have been made to alleviate fiscal pressure on Member States with relatively low public debts. The present paper gives support to this view. Economies with high public debt-GDP ratios are shown to experience larger price deviations after a fiscal expansion. These results are derived in a model, calibrated to euro area quarterly data, with capital accumulation, flexible prices and wealth effects in the presence of an independent monetary authority. (C) 2006 Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved
Climate Vulnerability and Monetary Policy in a Dual Economy
No full textThis paper analyzes monetary policy responses to weather shocks in a climate-exposed economy characterized by rural agriculture and modern manufacturing sectors. Targeting core inflation rather than headline inflation is optimal when weather shocks hit agriculture harder than manufacturing
Fiscal policy and exchange rates
No full textThis paper examines the dynamics of the nominal exchange rate and fiscal deficits in a continuous time optimizing general equilibrium model with OLG. It is shown that alternative financing modes of budget deficits imply different patterns of adjustment along the transitional path towards the steady-state equilibrium. In particular, the respect of public solvency without money financing is not sufficient to avoid the depreciation of the exchange rate in the long-run after a fiscal expansion. In addition, money and tax financing generate opposite intergenerational reallocation of wealth
Short-run fluctuations and long-run growth with recursive preferences
No full textWhat is the relationship between short-run fluctuations in economic activity and the long-run evolution of the economy? There is empirical evidence that more perturbed economies tend to grow less. Yet matching this evidence has proven challenging for growth models without market failures. This paper examines the relationship between short-term fluctuations and long-term growth within a complete-market economy featuring Epstein-Zin preferences and unbounded growth driven by human and physical capital accumulation. With these preferences, risk aversion and intertemporal elasticity of substitution are allowed to be independent of each other. When the model is plausibly calibrated, the relationship between the mean and variance of growth turns out to be negative. In most cases, the effect of fluctuations on welfare is found to be negative and sizable, even when the long-run effect on growth is positive
Pro-competitive reforms and timing of implementation: An IGEM-based simulation analysis for Italy
No full textA behavioral model of the credit cycle
No full textIn a behavioral variant of a New Keynesian model, in which individuals use simple heuristic rules to forecast future inflation and output, if there are limits on the amount of debt that economic agents are allowed to bear, we observe occasionally severe downturns. Differences in beliefs combined with borrowing constraints tend to dampen expansions, but give rise to a chain reaction that exacerbates the recessions. The model is an example of endogenous credit cycles with expansions, severe recessions, and persistent inequality in the distribution of wealth. Monetary policy can both stabilize the economy and cause increased average output
Fiscal policy and exchange rates
Full text linkThis paper examines the dynamics of the nominal exchange rate and fiscal deficits in a continuous time optimizing general equilibrium model with finite horizon. It is shown that alternative financing modes of budget deficits imply different patterns of adjustment along the transitional path towards the steady state equilibrium. In particular, the respect of public solvency without money financing is not suffcient to avoid the depreciation of the exchange rate in the long-run after a fiscal expansion
GHG Emissions Control and Monetary Policy
No full textThis paper examines the optimal environmental and monetary policy mix in a New Keynesian model embodying pollutant emissions, abatement technology and environmental damage. The optimal response of the economy to productivity shocks is shown to depend crucially on the instruments policy makers have available, the intensity of the distortions they have to address (i.e. imperfect competition, costly price adjustment and negative environmental externality) and the way they interact
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