1,721,106 research outputs found
Does social capital enforce social distancing? The role of bridging and bonding social capital in the evolution of the pandemic
No full textBy shaping the way people look at members of their networks as well as strangers, social capital affects the behavior of a population during a pandemic. Over the course of 2020, various countries implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI), imposing restrictions that were difficult to enforce (due to the scale of the policies) in order to protect the public from the threat of COVID-19. This is an interesting quasi-experimental setting in which to test the compliance of populations with different levels of social capital with government suggestions and prescriptions. With the help of European Social Survey data, and the John Hopkins University dataset on the spread of COVID-19 around the world, the present work aims to test the impact within a sample of European countries with different social capital stocks on the spread of coronavirus. The results show that countries with higher social capital have fewer COVID-19 cases, ceteris paribus for NPI. This is especially true if this capital is of the bonding kind
From the Triangle to the Rhombus: Exploration, Systematization, and Material for a Genealogical Theory
No full textIn this work, we aim to systematize the so-called diamond theory into a well-designed and explicated theory, that we will name “of rhombus”. After introducing the problem of the number of ancestors, and offering a solution to the paradox the usual mathematical solution creates, I offer an equation that finds the number of ancestors lost for coalescence events. We discuss the main reasons for coalescence and its implications. We also apply this equation (to the best of our knowledge never before found in the relevant literature) to two specific cases: the point at which the number of theoretical ancestors becomes greater than the living population and the Toba catastrophe theory, which states that at some point the number of living human beings shrank to 6,500
The Effects of School Closures on COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis
No full textBackground: There has been much debate about the effects and importance of closing, keeping closed, or not opening schools in order to prevent COVID-19 contagion. This policy has been questioned regarding both its efficacy and the social cost it entails, including the possible asymmetric impact it has on genders in many societies due to traditional childcare roles. To the best of our knowledge no existing contribution has attempted to gauge the effectiveness of such a policy over time, in a longitudinal cross-country perspective. Objectives: This paper aimed to fill the gap in the literature by assessing, at a European level, the effect of school closures (or the lack of such measures) on the numbers of new COVID-19 infections, in the absence of vaccines. Given this policy’s expected change in effectiveness over time, we also measured the effectiveness of having schools closed after a given number of days (from 7 to 100). Methods: We pursued our objectives by means of a quantitative panel analysis, building a longitudinal dataset with observations from countries in Europe, from 1 January to 30 September, and estimating the impact of school closure via feasible-generalised least-squares fixed effect and random effect estimators, and analysis of variance (ANOVA) mixed models. Results: Our results show that having schools closed is effective in reducing the number of new cases. Countries that implement closure have fewer new COVID-19 cases than those that do not. This becomes a reality around 20 days after the implementation of the policy. Its efficacy continues to be detectable up to 100 days after implementation. The result is robust to controls for other forms of social distancing. Conclusion: Results suggest that school closure is effective in reducing the number of people who are infected with COVID-19. Unlike what has been suggested in previous analyses or with regard to other diseases, its efficacy continues to be detectable up to 100 days after the introduction of the policy
Work ethics, stay-at-home measures and COVID-19 diffusion: How is the pandemic affected by the way people perceive work?
No full textNon-pharmaceutical interventions aimed at reducing the spread of COVID-19 rely largely on voluntary compliance among the target population to be effective, since such measures, which are aimed at the entire population, are very hard to enforce. In this paper, we focus on the impact of different work ethics on the spread of COVID-19. There are indeed reasons to believe that populations with different attitudes toward work will react differently to stay-at-home orders and other policies that forbid people from working. By means of a quantitative analysis, using hybrid model estimators, we test the impact of different work ethics on COVID-19 diffusion in a sample of 30 European countries. Results show that the more a population holds certain beliefs about work—namely, that it is humiliating to receive money without working, that people who do not work become lazy, and that work always comes first—the higher contagion rates of COVID-19 are, ceteris paribus. On the other hand, the more a population perceives work as a social duty, the lower contagion rates are. All this suggests that different work ethics matter in the containment of COVID-19
COVID-19 Diffusion Before Awareness: The Role of Football Match Attendance in Italy
No full textAnecdotal evidence suggests that football matches may have played a role in the spread of COVID-19 all over Europe. Nevertheless, from a scientific point of view, the impact of football matches on the spread of COVID-19 remains unclear. In this paper we study, via a quantitative analysis, the case of Italy, a country badly affected by COVID, and one where attending football matches is very popular. We consider the impact of matches played in January and February 2020 on the dynamic of the pandemic in March and April the same year. Our results, which consider all levels of Italian professional football, and the highest level of amateur football, show that matches played in January and February had an impact on the evolution of the pandemic in March and April. These results suggest that great care must be taken before considering re-opening stadia
COVID-19 in Central Asia: exploring the relationship between governance and non-pharmaceutical intervention
No full textTo fight coronavirus disease 2019, non-pharmaceutical interventions were adopted all over the world. Non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) effectiveness also depends on governments’ capacity to implement sound policies. Stay-at-home orders are binding measures that can raise serious concerns among the population. The perceived quality and effective need for these measures are therefore crucial for the willingness of the citizens to accept NPIs. This study investigates the relationship between the efficacy of NPIs and governance quality in Central Asia. Results suggest that overall governance quality matters and that in this relationship regulatory quality is more important than rule of law, which matters more than government effectiveness
Back to school or ... back to lockdown? The effects of opening schools on the diffusion of COVID-19 in Italian regions
No full textThe opening of schools that coincided with the beginning of fall 2020 and the arrival of the second wave of COVID-19 in continental Europe has fostered significant debate in several countries. Some contributions have suggested that youngsters play a minor role in the spread of the virus, given the specific characteristics of this infection; other scholars have raised concerns about the necessary movement that involves keeping schools open, and the consequent potential spread of the virus. In this study, we focus on the Italian case, an interesting setting in which to test the impact of opening schools on the spread of COVID-19, because of the different dates at which schools have opened in the various Italian provinces, and because of the different rates at which the virus has spread across Italy. Our results suggest that open schools have a positive impact on COVID-19 cases, whose spread occurs between 10 and 14 days after opening. While closing schools or using distance learning have other social and economic consequences, making it necessary for policymakers to adopt a holistic evaluation, it should be taken into account that open schools have an impact on the spread of the pandemic
Statistics and Genealogy: A Match Made in Heaven? The Forecasting and Inference Tool, an Application of the Central Limit Theorem in Genealogical Research
No full textApplications of econometrics and statistics are widely used as tools in many disciplines as a means to provide quantitative analysis to investigate hypotheses. Examples include economics, sociology, and cliometrics. While so far in a genealogy such an approach has not been attempted, in this exploratory work we suggest some possibilities for the application of such quantitative tools to the subject. In doing so, we introduce and discuss the Forecasting and Inference Tool, an application of this framework, and a tool that can help genealogists to be more productive in their fieldwork by estimating years of death, marriage, and birth
The Efficacy of Lockdown Against COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis
No full textBackground: There has been much debate about the effectiveness of lockdown measures in containing COVID-19, and their appropriateness given the economic and social cost they entail. To the best of our knowledge, no existing contribution to the literature has attempted to gauge the effectiveness of lockdown measures over time in a longitudinal cross-country perspective. Objectives: This paper aims to fill the gap in the literature by assessing, at an international level, the effect of lockdown measures (or the lack of such measures) on the numbers of new infections. Given this policy’s expected change in effectiveness over time, we also measure the effect of having a lockdown implemented over a given number of days (from 7 to 20 days). Methods: We pursue our objectives by means of a quantitative panel analysis, building a longitudinal dataset with observations from countries all over the world, and estimating the impact of lockdown via feasible generalized least squares fixed effect, random effects, generalized estimating equation, and hierarchical linear models. Results: Our results show that lockdown is effective in reducing the number of new cases in the countries that implement it, compared with those countries that do not. This is especially true around 10 days after the implementation of the policy. Its efficacy continues to grow up to 20 days after implementation. Conclusion: Results suggest that lockdown is effective in reducing the R0, i.e. the number of people infected by each infected person, and that, unlike what has been suggested in previous analyses, its efficacy continues to hold 20 days after the introduction of the policy
- …
