2 research outputs found
ANALYSIS OF CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS AND SELECTED AGRICULTURAL EXPORT COMMODITIES IN NIGERIA
No full textThe theory of comparative advantage of David Richardo has made it clear that no economy can exist in isolation hence the need to optimize gain from international trade wherein economies of the world could build international trade competitiveness based on area of advantage. The impact of currency fluctuations on selected agricultural export commodities is an effort to unravel the currency fluctuation dynamics of international trade on export commodities. Data for five major agricultural export commodities was sourced from the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) and World Bank Development Indicator database. The result indicates that a unit appreciation of the currency produced a 0.002 unit decline in cocoa-bean export in Nigeria in the short run. Currency fluctuation however had no significant effect on rubber export either in the long or short term. The outcome of the study also shows that a unit rise in the value of the local currency resulted in a 0.03 unit rise in the volume of palm-oil export, while it also increased groundnut export by 0.002 in the short term. Finally, a unit fall in the value of the local currency triggered a 0.049 unit fall in cotton seed export in Nigeria. Generally, the study found that currency fluctuations have a small quantitative impact on the selected agricultural export commodities in Nigeria. The study recommends that Nigerian government should adopt a more rigorous export promotion strategy with direct bearing on improving the competitiveness of exportable especially as the economy tries to break away from oil export dominanc
SSESSMENT OF OIL PRICE, EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA: A GOAL PROGRAMMING OPTIMIZATION APPROACH
No full textThere appears to be no consensus on many empirical studies (predominantly domestic studies) on the relationship between oil price, exchange rate and economic (Growth) development, hence the need to assess using the mathematical tool of goal programming to assess oil price, exchange rate and economic development. The decision variable of the goal programming analysis was generated firstly from the 10-years average of oil price, exchange rate and economic development. While oil price aspirational target of was attainable from the mathematical analysis conducted, that of economic development proxied by Human Development Index (HDI) target of 0.60 was found to be unattainable with margin of deviation of approximately 50%. Substitution of the respective deviations of the three constraints gave a non-zero objective function which suggest that the oil price, exchange rate and economic development goal programming analysis is not optimized. The study therefore recommended that government should as a matter of urgency double down on its oil exploration potentials by strengthen its institution to curb the menace of crude oil theft, revamp oil refinery to minimize incessant exchange rate pressure, diversifying the economy so as to mitigate rising unemployment and inflation rate and finally develop a pragmatic exchange rate regime that suite the economic peculiarities of Nigeria given the economy’s weak international trade competitiveness. This will ensure efficient and proactive trickle-down effect of proceed of oil endowment on socio-economic indicators and other near proxy of economic development
