1,721,009 research outputs found
An Econometric and Historical Perspective on the Long-Run Stability of the Demand for Money: The Case of Italy
No full text
Monetary policy rules, policy preferences, and uncertainty: recent empirical evidence
No full textWe survey recent empirical evidence on monetary policy rules, and find that the emphasis in the political economy literature on institutional design (e.g. central bank independence and inflation targeting) is exaggerated. Formal institutional reform seems neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for the observation of shifts in monetary policy rules. However, there is no doubt that in some cases (e.g. the UK following the start of inflation targeting in 1992, and Bank of England Independence in 1997), a major shift in monetary policy conduct is detectable. We also highlight the problems in explicitly testing the predictions of the political economy literature. Semi-structural modelling approaches, such as time-varying VAR models may be more useful in understanding policy rules, and the interaction between policy shifts and changes in the transmission mechanism
Central bank goals, institutional change and monetary policy: Evidence from the United States and United Kingdom
No full textMacroeconomic shocks, structural change and real exchange rates: evidence from historical data
No full textWe present empirical evidence on the forces driving real exchange rates in the long-run. Using data from the US, UK and Italy across different exchange rate regimes, we find support for the hypothesis that productivity and fiscal shocks matter. However, in some cases fiscal shocks cause depreciations, likely triggered by the monetary accommodation of fiscal shocks. We also find that the traditional Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect of productivity on real exchange rates is reversed in some cases, which confirms the importance of the distributive sector in driving productivity gains
Monetary Policy on the Road to EMU: The Dominance of External Constraints on Domestic Objectives
No full textWe estimate forward-looking interest-rate reaction functions Exchange Rate Model for four ERM countries. Reputational factors and convergence to the German inflation rate are found to be the main policy goals. We cannot detect evidence that the target zone band was exploited to implement countercyclical policies: Thus, their enthusiastic joining of EMU is not particularly surprising, as the ECB's policies are more likely to take into account their national preferences than the Bundesbank did under the ERM regime
Does institutional change really matter? Inflation targets, central bank reform and interest rate policy in the OECD countries.
No full textWe estimate forward-looking interest-rate reaction functions for the G3 economies and for a group of countries which recently adopted inflation targets. Some significant shifts in the conduct of monetary policy are detected in the G3 countries, especially in the USA and Japan. In contrast with popular wisdom, it is only since the 1990s that policies in these countries begin to look consistent with an inflation-targeting regime. In addition, the introduction of inflation targeting and central bank reforms in countries like Sweden, Canada and New Zealand has not led to major changes in the way in which central banks react to the objectives of economic policy. In all cases changes in policy behaviour pre-date the introduction of inflation targets and central bank reforms. The paper challenges the one-size-fits-all attitude towards modern central bank policymaking which permeates a great deal of the current literature
- …
