4 research outputs found
Changes of the Abramov Glacier (Alay Ridge) from 1850 to 2014
Get PDFThe purpose of this study was to determine the nature and rate of changes of the Abramov glacier over the period from 1850 to 2014. The glacier is located on the Alay Ridge in Kyrgyzstan. Its borders were estimated by means of interpretation and analysis of space images from the satellites Landsat-2, 5, 7, 8, KH-4А and KH-9 (program Corona), Geoеye-1 together with aerial photographs and topographical maps, and with addition of results of the field survey of the glacier’s tongue by GPS instruments. As a result, we could find that the longstanding degradation of the glacier continued over the whole period under investigation, and against the background of that there were periods of relative stabilization of the front of the tongue as well as the periods of the glacier advances of different duration and intensity. In 1850, the total area of the glacier accounted for 26.4 km2, but by 2014 it reduced by 3.65 km2, or 13.8%, and became equal to 22.75 km2. Thus, annual reduction of the glacier area was equal approximately to 0.02 km2 per a year, and its length decreased by almost 2950 m, i.e., the glacier contracted, on the average, by 18 m per a year. It should be noted that changes of the glacier area were similar during both the initial and final periods of observations, and it means that no intensification of anthropogenic impact upon the glacier was observed. Obviously, this fact is indicative of the prevalence of natural factors in the change of the glacier, expressed in irregular duration of cyclic changes
Изменения ледника Абрамова (Алайский хребет) c 1850 по 2014 г.
Get PDFThe purpose of this study was to determine the nature and rate of changes of the Abramov glacier over the period from 1850 to 2014. The glacier is located on the Alay Ridge in Kyrgyzstan. Its borders were estimated by means of interpretation and analysis of space images from the satellites Landsat-2, 5, 7, 8, KH-4А and KH-9 (program Corona), Geoеye-1 together with aerial photographs and topographical maps, and with addition of results of the field survey of the glacier’s tongue by GPS instruments. As a result, we could find that the longstanding degradation of the glacier continued over the whole period under investigation, and against the background of that there were periods of relative stabilization of the front of the tongue as well as the periods of the glacier advances of different duration and intensity. In 1850, the total area of the glacier accounted for 26.4 km2, but by 2014 it reduced by 3.65 km2, or 13.8%, and became equal to 22.75 km2. Thus, annual reduction of the glacier area was equal approximately to 0.02 km2 per a year, and its length decreased by almost 2950 m, i.e., the glacier contracted, on the average, by 18 m per a year. It should be noted that changes of the glacier area were similar during both the initial and final periods of observations, and it means that no intensification of anthropogenic impact upon the glacier was observed. Obviously, this fact is indicative of the prevalence of natural factors in the change of the glacier, expressed in irregular duration of cyclic changes.Цель данного исследования – определить характер и скорость изменения ледника Абрамова. Методика определения границ ледника за 1850–2014 г. предусматривала дешифрирование и анализ космических снимков спутников Landsat-2, 5, 7, 8, KH-4А, KH-9 программы Corona, Geoеye-1, аэрофотоснимков и топографических карт, а также съёмку в полевых условиях границ языка ледника с помощью GPS-приборов. В эти годы продолжалась деградации ледника Абрамова, его площадь сократилась на 3,65 км2, т.е. на 13,8%. Средняя скоростью сокращения площади ледника составила около 0,02 км2/год
Turn down the heat
Get PDFThis report provides a snapshot of recent scientific literature and new analyses of likely impacts and risks that would be associated with a 4° Celsius warming within this century. It is a rigorous attempt to outline a range of risks, focusing on developing countries and especially the poor. A 4°C world would be one of unprecedented heat waves, severe drought, and major floods in many regions, with serious impacts on ecosystems and associated services. But with action, a 4°C world can be avoided and we can likely hold warming below 2°C.
Without further commitments and action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the world is likely to warm by more than 3°C above the preindustrial climate. Even with the current mitigation commitments and pledges fully implemented, there is roughly a 20 percent likelihood of exceeding 4°C by 2100.
If they are not met, a warming of 4°C could occur as early as the 2060s. Such a warming level and associated sea-level rise of 0.5 to 1 meter, or more, by 2100 would not be the end point: a further warming to levels over 6°C, with several meters of sea-level rise, would likely occur over the following centuries
