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Methane emissions from the Nord Stream subsea pipeline leaks
Full text linkThe amount of methane released to the atmosphere from the Nord Stream subsea pipeline leaks remains uncertain, as reflected in a wide range of estimates1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18. A lack of information regarding the temporal variation in atmospheric emissions has made it challenging to reconcile pipeline volumetric (bottom-up) estimates1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8 with measurement-based (top-down) estimates8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18. Here we simulate pipeline rupture emission rates and integrate these with methane dissolution and sea-surface outgassing estimates9,10 to model the evolution of atmospheric emissions from the leaks. We verify our modelled atmospheric emissions by comparing them with top-down point-in-time emission-rate estimates and cumulative emission estimates derived from airborne11, satellite8,12,13,14 and tall tower data. We obtain consistency between our modelled atmospheric emissions and top-down estimates and find that 465 ± 20 thousand metric tons of methane were emitted to the atmosphere. Although, to our knowledge, this represents the largest recorded amount of methane released from a single transient event, it is equivalent to 0.1% of anthropogenic methane emissions for 2022. The impact of the leaks on the global atmospheric methane budget brings into focus the numerous other anthropogenic methane sources that require mitigation globally. Our analysis demonstrates that diverse, complementary measurement approaches are needed to quantify methane emissions in support of the Global Methane Pledge19.publishedVersio
Biomass burning emission analysis based on MODIS
Full text linkWe assessed the biomass burning (BB) smoke aerosol optical depth (AOD) simulations of 11 global models that participated in the AeroCom phase III BB emission experiment. By comparing multi-model simulations and satellite observations in the vicinity of fires over 13 regions globally, we (1) assess model-simulated BB AOD performance as an indication of smoke source–strength, (2) identify regions where the common emission dataset used by the models might underestimate or overestimate smoke sources, and (3) assess model diversity and identify underlying causes as much as possible. Using satellite-derived AOD snapshots to constrain source strength works best where BB smoke from active sources dominates background non-BB aerosol, such as in boreal forest regions and over South America and southern hemispheric Africa. The comparison is inconclusive where the total AOD is low, as in many agricultural burning areas, and where the background is high, such as parts of India and China. Many inter-model BB AOD differences can be traced to differences in values for the mass ratio of organic aerosol to organic carbon, the BB aerosol mass extinction efficiency, and the aerosol loss rate from each model. The results point to a need for increased numbers of available BB cases for study in some regions and especially to a need for more extensive regional-to-global-scale measurements of aerosol loss rates and of detailed particle microphysical and optical properties; this would both better constrain models and help distinguish BB from other aerosol types in satellite retrievals. More generally, there is the need for additional efforts at constraining aerosol source strength and other model attributes with multi-platform observations
Climate change rivals fertilizer use in driving soil nitrous oxide emissions in the northern high latitudes: Insights from terrestrial biosphere models
Full text linkNitrous oxide (N2O) is the most important stratospheric ozone-depleting agent based on current emissions and the third largest contributor to increased net radiative forcing. Increases in atmospheric N2O have been attributed primarily to enhanced soil N2O emissions. Critically, contributions from soils in the Northern High Latitudes (NHL, >50°N) remain poorly quantified despite their exposure to rapid rates of regional warming and changing hydrology due to climate change. In this study, we used an ensemble of six process-based terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) from the Global Nitrogen/Nitrous Oxide Model Intercomparison Project (NMIP) to quantify soil N2O emissions across the NHL during 1861–2016. Factorial simulations were conducted to disentangle the contributions of key driving factors, including climate change, nitrogen inputs, land use change, and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, to the trends in emissions. The NMIP models suggests NHL soil N2O emissions doubled from 1861 to 2016, increasing on average by 2.0 ± 1.0 Gg N/yr (ppublishedVersio
Aerosol hygroscopicity influenced by seasonal chemical composition variations in the Arctic region
Full text linkIn this study, we quantified aerosol hygroscopicity parameter using aerosol microphysical observation data (κphy), analyzing monthly and seasonal trends in κphy by correlating it with aerosol chemical composition over 6 years from April 2007 to March 2013 at the Zeppelin Observatory in Svalbard, Arctic region. The monthly mean κphy value exhibited distinct seasonal variations, remaining high from winter to spring, reaching its minimum in summer, followed by an increase in fall, and maintaining elevated levels in winter. To verify the reliability of κphy, we employed the hygroscopicity parameter calculated from chemical composition data (κchem). The chemical composition and PM2.5 mass concentration required to calculate κchem was obtained through Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis data and the calculation of κchem assumed that Arctic aerosols comprise only five species: black carbon (BC), organic matter (OM), ammonium sulfate (AS), sea salt aerosol less than a diameter of 2.5 μm (SSA2.5), and dust aerosol less than a diameter of 2.5 μm (Dust2.5). The κchem had no distinct correlation but had a similar seasonal trend compared to κphy. The κchem value followed a trend of SSA2.5 and was much higher by a factor of 1.6 ± 0.3 than κphy on average, due to a large proportion of SSA2.5 mass concentration in MERRA-2 reanalysis data. This may be due to the overestimation of sea salt aerosols in MERRA-2 reanalysis. The relationship between monthly mean κphy and the chemical composition used to calculate κchem was also analyzed. The elevated κphy from October to February resulted from the dominant influence of SSA2.5, while the maximum κphy in March was concurrently influenced by increasing AS and Dust2.5 associated with long-range transport from mid-latitude regions during Arctic haze periods and by SSA mass concentration obtained from in-situ sampling, which remained high from the preceding winter. The relatively low κphy from April to September can be attributed to low SSA2.5 and the dominance of organic compounds in the Arctic summer. Either natural sources such as those of marine and terrestrial biogenic origin or long-range-transported aerosols may contribute to the increase in organic aerosols in summer, potentially influencing the reduction in κphy of atmospheric aerosols. To our knowledge, this is the first study to analyze the monthly and seasonal variation of aerosol hygroscopicity calculated using long-term microphysical data, and this result provides evidence that changes in monthly and seasonal hygroscopicity variation occur depending on chemical composition.publishedVersio
The active layer soils of Greenlandic permafrost areas can function as important sinks for volatile organic compounds
Full text linkPermafrost is a considerable carbon reservoir harboring up to 1700 petagrams of carbon accumulated over millennia, which can be mobilized as permafrost thaws under global warming. Recent studies have highlighted that a fraction of this carbon can be transformed to atmospheric volatile organic compounds, which can affect the atmospheric oxidizing capacity and contribute to the formation of secondary organic aerosols. In this study, active layer soils from the seasonally unfrozen layer above the permafrost were collected from two distinct locations of the Greenlandic permafrost and incubated to explore their roles in the soil-atmosphere exchange of volatile organic compounds. Results show that these soils can actively function as sinks of these compounds, despite their different physiochemical properties. Upper active layer possessed relatively higher uptake capacities; factors including soil moisture, organic matter, and microbial biomass carbon were identified as the main factors correlating with the uptake rates. Additionally, uptake coefficients for several compounds were calculated for their potential use in future model development. Correlation analysis and the varying coefficients indicate that the sink was likely biotic. The development of a deeper active layer under climate change may enhance the sink capacity and reduce the net emissions of volatile organic compounds from permafrost thaw.publishedVersio
Air Quality and Healthy Ageing: Predictive Modelling of Pollutants using CNN Quantum-LSTM
Full text linkThe concept of healthy ageing is emerging and becoming a norm to achieve a high quality of life, reducing healthcare costs and promoting longevity. Rapid growth in global population and urbanisation requires substantial efforts to ensure healthy and supportive environments to improve the quality of life, closely aligned with the principles of healthy ageing. Access to fundamental resources which include quality healthcare services, clean air, green and blue spaces plays a pivotal role in achieving this goal. Air quality, in particular, is a critical factor in achieving healthy ageing targets. However, it necessitates a global effort to develop and implement policies aimed at reducing air pollution, which has severe implications for human health including cognitive impairment and neurodegenerative diseases, while promoting healthier environments such as high quality green and blue spaces for all age groups. Such actions inevitably depend on the current status of air pollution and better predictive models to mitigate the harmful impact of emissions on planetary health and public health. In this work, we proposed a hybrid model referred as AirVCQnet, which combines the variational mode decomposition (VMD) method with a convolutional neural network (CNN) and a quantum long short-term memory (QLSTM) network for the prediction of air pollutants. The performance of the proposed model is analysed on five key pollutants including fine Particulate Matter PM2.5, Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), Ozone (O3), PM10, and Sulphur Dioxide (SO2), sourced from air quality monitoring station in Northern Ireland, UK. The effectiveness of the proposed model is evaluated by comparing its performance with its equivalent classical counterpart using root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and R-squared (R2). The results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model, achieving a performance gain of up to 14% and validating its robustness, efficiency and reliability by leveraging t.publishedVersio
A Nano Risk Governance Portal supporting risk governance of nanomaterials and nano-enabled products
Full text linkisk governance (RG) of nanomaterials (NMs) has been at the focus of the Horizon 2020 Programme of the European Union, through the funding of three research projects (Gov4Nano, NANORIGO, RISKGONE). The extensive collaboration of the three projects, in various scientific topics, aimed to enhance RG of NMs and provide a solid scientific basis for effective collaboration of the various types of stakeholders involved. In this paper the development of a digital Nano Risk Governance Portal (NRGP) and associated information technology (IT) infrastructure supporting the risk governance of (engineered) nanomaterials and nano-enabled products, is presented, alongside considerations for future work and enhancement within the domain of Advanced Materials (AdMa). This paper describes several elements of this digital portal, which serves as a single-entry point for all stakeholders in need of, or interested in, nano-risk governance aspects. In its simplest form, the NRGP allows users to be efficiently guided towards tailored information about nanomaterials, risk governance concepts, guidance documents, harmonized methods for risk assessment, publicly accessible data, information and knowledge, as well as a directory of tools, to assess the exposure and hazard of nanomaterials and perform Safe-and-Sustainable-by-Design (SSbD) assessment in the context of nano-risk governance. This paper presents the technical implementation and the content of the first version of the NRGP alongside the vision for the future and further plans for development, implementation, hosting and maintenance of the NRGP aimed at ensuring its sustainability. This includes a procedure to link to, or include, currently available and future (nano)material-related (cloud) platforms, decision support systems, tools, guidance, and databases in line with good governance objectives.A Nano Risk Governance Portal supporting risk governance of nanomaterials and nano-enabled productspublishedVersio
Supervised Anomaly Detection in Univariate Time-Series Using 1D Convolutional Siamese Networks
Full text linkIn time-series data analysis, identifying anomalies is crucial for maintaining data integrity and ensuring accurate analyses and decision-making. Anomalies can compromise data quality and operational efficiency. The complexity of time-series data, with its temporal dependencies and potential non-stationarity, makes anomaly detection challenging but essential. Our research introduces ADSiamNet, a 1D Convolutional Neural Network-based Siamese network model for anomaly detection and rectification. ADSiamNet effectively identifies localized patterns in time-series data and smooths detected anomalies using a quantile-based technique. In tests with physical activity data from Actigraph watches and MOX2-5 sensors, ADSiamNet achieved accuracies of 98.65% and 85.0%, respectively, outperforming other supervised anomaly detection methods. The model uses a contrastive loss function to compare input sequences and adjusts network weights iteratively during training to recognize intricate patterns. Additionally, we evaluated various univariate time-series forecasting algorithms on datasets with and without anomalies. Results show that anomaly-smoothed data reduces forecasting errors, highlighting our approach’s effectiveness in enhancing time-series data analysis’s integrity and reliability. Future research will focus on multivariate time-series datasets.publishedVersio
UV-degradation is a key driver of the fate and impacts of marine plastics. How can laboratory experiments be designed to effectively inform risk assessment?
Full text linkMarine plastic litter is subject to different abiotic and biotic forces that lead to its degradation, the main driver being UV-induced photodegradation. Since UV-exposure leads to both physical and chemical degradation of plastic, leading to a release of micro- and nanoplastics as well as leaching of chemicals and degradation products – it is expected to have radical impacts on plastics fate and effects in the marine environment. The number of laboratory studies investigating the mechanisms of plastic UV-degradation in seawater has increased significantly in the past 10 years, but are the exposures designed in a manner that allow observations to be extrapolated to environmental fate? Most studies to date focus on quantifying plastic fragmentation and surface changes, but is this relevant for impact assessments? Here, we provide a review of the current scientific literature on UV-degradation of plastic under marine conditions. Plastic fragmentation processes and surface changes as well as implications of UV-degradation of plastics on additive leaching and the toxicity of UV-weathered versus non-weathered plastics are highlighted. Furthermore, experimental set-ups are critically inspected and recommendations for future studies are issued.publishedVersio
Ambient measurements of fluorine, SO 2 , heavy metals, PAH and dust deposition around Alcoa Mosjøen. 22 May – 19 August 2024
No full textPå oppdrag fra Alcoa Norway AS dept. Mosjøen har NILU utført målinger i omgivelses-luft rundt smelteverket i Mosjøen. Målingene ble utført med aktiv prøvetaking (fluor, SO2, metaller, PAH, PM10) og passiv prøvetaking (SO2, støvnedfall). Måleprosjektet ble utført i perioden 22. mai – 19. august 2024. Alle målte komponenter var godt under de individuelle grenseverdier, målsettingsverdier og luftkvalitetskriterier i måleperioden. Siden Mosjøen er mest utsatt for utslipp fra aluminiumsverket i sommermånedene, pga. hovedvindretning fra fjorden, over smelteverket mot byen, blir måleresultatene et øvre anslag for bidraget fra smelteverket til konsentrasjonene i Mosjøen over hele året.On behalf of Alcoa Norway AS dept. Mosjøen, NILU has carried out ambient air measurements around the smelter in Mosjøen. The measurements were carried out with active sampling (fluorine, SO 2 , metals, PAH, PM 10) and passive sampling (SO 2 , dust deposition). The measurement project was carried out in the period 22nd May – 19th August 2024. All measured components were well below the individual limit values, target values and air quality criteria during the measurement period. Since Mosjøen is most exposed to emissions from the aluminium plant in the summer months, due to main wind direction from the fjord, over the smelter towards the city, the measurement results are an upper estimate for the contribution from the smelter to the concentrations in Mosjøen over the whole year.publishedVersio