Digital Education Resource Archive

 
 
 
Interactions 
between the 
Procurement Act 
2023 and the 
Children and 
Families Act 2014 
Guidance for local authorities on how the 
Procurement Act 2023 interacts with the 
Children and Families Act 2014 
January 2025 
2 
Contents 
 
Summary 3 
Who this publication is for 3 
Main points 3 
Contracts for education provision which may be in scope of the Procurement Act 2023 4 
Contracts for education provision not in scope of the Procurement Act 2023 5 
Placements made under the Children and Families Act 2014 6 
Light touch contracts and contract value thresholds 7 
Below-threshold contracts 7 
Above-threshold contracts 7 
Direct award under the Procurement Act 2023 8 
A single supplier is required 8 
A single supplier is not required 8 
Mixed procurement: education, health and social care provision 9 
Placements in alternative provision 10 
 
3 
Summary  
This publication provides non-statutory guidance from the Department for Education. It 
has been produced to help local authorities to understand how the Procurement Act 2023 
(“PA 2023”) interacts with the Children and Families Act 2014 (“CFA 2014”) and sets out 
the circumstances in which the PA 2023 may or may not apply in respect of agreements 
for the provision of education services. It also highlights provisions that may be relevant 
to local authorities where a contract is subject to the PA 2023. 
Who this publication is for 
This guidance is for:  
• local authorities 
• all education providers 
Main points 
The PA 2023 governs the way public sector procurement must be carried out for 
procurements that are commenced after the PA 2023 is scheduled to go live on 24 
February 2025. The majority of education provision is either maintained by local 
authorities or through a funding agreement with the Secretary of State for Education, and 
providers are reimbursed for the costs of providing public education. The agreements 
which establish those arrangements are generally not public contracts for the purposes of 
the PA 2023 and will not be in scope of the PA 2023. There are however exceptions to 
note, in particular when local authorities contract with independent specialist providers to 
make placements. 
 
The new regime introduced by the PA 2023 will apply to agreements made between a 
local authority and an education provider where the agreement in question amounts to a 
public contract as defined in section 3 of the PA 2023, namely being “any contract for the 
supply, for pecuniary interest, of goods, services or work to a contracting authority”. A 
local authority will be a contracting authority for the purposes of the PA 2023 if it enters 
into such an agreement.  
         
 
 
4 
Contracts for education provision which may be in 
scope of the Procurement Act 2023  
Local authorities will need to consider carefully whether a contract for education provision 
amounts to a public contract under the PA 2023. The PA 2023 does not exempt 
providers based on their designation, character or tax status. It is the nature of the 
agreement that will determine whether or not the PA 2023 will apply. Therefore, any 
contract under which an education provider is providing services to a local authority for 
pecuniary interest (i.e. for profit or some other financial benefit) is likely to be in scope of 
the PA 2023. For example, the PA 2023 may apply where a local authority enters into an 
agreement with the following providers for the provision of placements for named 
individual children or young people for education services:  
• independent schools (including independent special schools) 
• non-maintained special schools 
• special post-16 institutions 
• post-16 independent training providers 
• unregistered alternative provision (”unregistered AP”) 
 
5 
Contracts for education provision not in scope of the 
Procurement Act 2023 
Education provision will not be in scope of the PA 2023 where the agreement between 
the local authority and the education provider does not amount to a contract for the 
provision of services for pecuniary interest. This might be because the agreement is 
exclusively entered into in performance of the parties’ public functions and statutory 
obligations. For this to apply, it will be important that the education provider does not 
receive pecuniary interest (or other financial benefit) beyond any funding provided to it for 
the purpose of performing its public function. See the guidance on covered procurement. 
Whether or not the agreement is in scope of the PA 2023 will ultimately depend on the 
nature of the contractual relationship. For example, the PA 2023 may not apply where a 
local authority enters into an agreement for the provision of education services with the 
following providers, because they are part of the public sector and prohibited from 
charging for the education provided: 
• schools maintained by a local authority 
• academies (including free schools and 16-19 Academies) 
• general further education colleges 
 
 
6 
Placements made under the Children and Families Act 
2014 
The CFA 2014 and SEND Regulations 2014 set out the statutory requirements and 
process whereby a local authority determines which education institution to name on a 
child’s or young person’s Education, Health and Care (EHC) plan. The local authority 
must secure the special educational provision it specifies in an EHC plan. The SEND 
Code of Practice sets out statutory guidance on the SEND system in England. 
The CFA 2014 may require special educational provision to be delivered by a particular 
supplier and require that a local authority names a particular educational institution in a 
child’s or young person’s EHC plan. The agreement between the local authority and 
provider over the delivery of this special educational provision may be in scope of the PA 
2023. The local authority would need to consider whether the contract will be a light 
touch contract and whether a direct award could be made under the PA 2023.    
 
7 
Light touch contracts and contract value thresholds 
Section 9 of the PA 2023 defines light touch contracts as contracts wholly or mainly for 
the supply of services as listed by Common Procurement Vocabulary (CPV) code in 
Schedule 1 to the Procurement Regulations 2024. A number of CPVs relating to 
education services are included in this list and may be relevant depending on the 
particular services to be provided.  
Contracts with an estimated total value below the relevant threshold (contained in        
Schedule 1 to the PA 2023) are only subject to a small number of the duties and 
provisions set out in the PA 2023. The threshold for light touch contracts is £663,540 until 
at least 31 December 2025. 
See the guidance on valuation of contracts and light touch contracts. 
Below-threshold contracts 
If the contract value is below £663,540, the contract is a below-threshold contract. Where 
contracts are below the financial threshold, they are not “public contracts”. This is 
because they have an estimated value of less than the threshold amount for the type of 
contract. The contracting authority should refer to Part 6 of the PA 2023 which sets out 
the rules that apply to the procurement of below-threshold contracts. 
 
See the guidance on below-threshold contracts. 
Above-threshold contracts 
If the contract is above £663,540, the contract is an above-threshold contract. Where 
contracts are above the financial threshold, they are "public contracts". This is because 
they have an estimated value of more than the threshold amount for the type of contract. 
The contracting authority should refer to the PA 2023 which sets out the rules that apply 
to the procurement of above-threshold contracts. 
 
 
 
8 
Direct award under the Procurement Act 2023 
If a direct award justification applies (as set out in section 41 of and Schedule 5 to the PA 
2023), a local authority could award a public contract directly to a supplier without 
carrying out a competitive tendering procedure. This may be particularly relevant where 
educational placements are made under other statutory arrangements that may require a 
specific supplier to provide the service.  
See the guidance on direct awards. 
A single supplier is required 
 
The local authority may determine that a specific school, college or educational provider 
is required. This may be the case when a specific education provider is named on an 
EHC plan, the individual or carer has expressed a preference, or the nature is such that 
only one supplier can provide the service. In this circumstance, one of the direct award 
justifications under section 41 of the PA 2023 may apply. See paragraphs 5-6 (single 
suppliers) and 15-17 (user choice contracts) of schedule 5 for more information. 
A single supplier is not required  
The local authority may determine that a single supplier is not required and there is a 
range of options. In this circumstance, a light touch contract should be awarded using a 
competitive tendering procedure or an appropriate existing framework or dynamic 
market. Section 23(6) of the PA 2023 allows the local authority to set the criteria to 
determine the most suitable provider, which could include:   
• the ability to meet the needs of the child or young person 
• the cost of the placement 
• its location or transport time 
• any views expressed by the child's parents or the young person and the local 
authority in the exercise of its statutory functions 
 
 
9 
Mixed procurement: education, health and social care 
provision 
Where children and young people have complex needs, the provision they require can be 
specified through an EHC plan and may involve elements of health and/or social care as 
well as educational provision. The local authority is required to secure the special 
educational provision specified in an EHC plan and the responsible commissioning body 
(Integrated Care Board) is required to arrange the health care provision specified. If 
these services were to be provided under one contract, it may be the case that one 
element of those services is subject to the light touch rules, while another is subject to 
the general rules regime. In these circumstances, a local authority may be able to rely on 
section 10 of the PA 2023 and effectively treat the whole contract as being a special 
regime contract (and therefore apply the relevant special regime thresholds to the entire 
contract). This provision is available only where the services cannot reasonably be 
provided under separate contracts. This may apply where education settings also offer 
residential or boarding services. 
 
There may also be circumstances where a contract makes provision for both education 
and relevant health care services that fall within the scope of the Health Care Services 
(Provider Selection Regime) Regulations 2023 (“PSR”). Where the relevant health care 
services form the main subject-matter of the procurement (as determined by the highest 
value service element under the contract) and could not reasonably be supplied under a 
separate contract, then the PSR will apply instead of the PA 2023. The PSR applies only 
to relevant authorities (which includes local authorities in England) and relevant health 
care services, the details of which are set out in the PSR. 
See the guidance on mixed procurement. 
10 
Placements in alternative provision 
Section 19 of the Education Act 1996 requires local authorities to make arrangements for 
the provision of suitable education (at school or otherwise) for any child of compulsory 
school age who, by reason of illness, exclusion from school or otherwise, might not 
otherwise receive suitable education. The Department has published statutory guidance 
on alternative provision (“AP”).   
In the majority of cases the local authority will identify a maintained school or academy 
(most commonly a pupil referral unit or AP academy) which must operate on a not-for-
profit basis. The resulting placement will not be subject to the PA 2023 because it is not a 
public contract for services for a “pecuniary interest” (as detailed above). 
In some cases, local authorities will arrange AP through independent AP providers. Many 
local authorities commission AP services to support a number of schools. When doing 
so, the local authority will need to consider the estimated value of the contract (including 
VAT) to establish whether it falls below the relevant threshold in Schedule 1 to the PA 
2023 or is subject to the light touch rules. Most AP placements should be temporary, and 
it is therefore anticipated that, particularly where the light touch rules apply, the contract 
value would fall below the relevant threshold for the supply of services. 
  
11 
 
© Crown copyright 2025 
This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0, 
except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit 
nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3.  
 
Where we have identified any third-party copyright information, you will need to obtain 
permission from the copyright holders concerned. 
 
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Interactions between the Procurement Act 2023 and the Children and Families Act 2014 : Guidance for local authorities on how the Procurement Act 2023 interacts with the Children and Families Act 2014 : January 2025

 
Further education 
college condition 
allocation 2025 to 
2026: Methodology 
 
April 2025 
2 
Contents 
Introduction 3 
Purpose of this document 3 
Changes to FE College structures 3 
The FECCA Formula 4 
Summary 4 
Counting learning hours 4 
Learning aims that are excluded 6 
Subject area weightings 6 
Expected teaching GIFA 8 
Expected non-teaching GIFA 8 
Expected residential GIFA 9 
Total expected GIFA and resulting allocations 9 
Annex: excluded aims 10 
Annex: location factors 11 
 
 
 
  
3 
Introduction 
Purpose of this document 
This document should be read in conjunction with the FE College Condition Allocation 
(FECCA) 2025 to 2026 Spend Guidance. The purpose of this document is to set out the 
methodology used in the formula to calculate the allocations. 
Changes to FE College structures 
This formula takes account of all changes to FE college structures before 01 January 
2025. Changes to college structures include mergers and closures of FE colleges, 
including Sixth Form Colleges that have merged into an eligible FE college.  
For providers which have merged into an FE college, learning hours have been assigned 
to the successor college, and are factored into the total allocation received.  
4 
The FECCA Formula 
Summary 
The FECCA 2025 to 2026 allocation provides funding in proportion with the expected 
space at each provider. This is modelled using the academic year 2023 to 2024 
Individualised Learner Record (ILR), specifically the snapshot 14 dataset (SN14). The 
steps involved in calculating the allocation are as follows: 
• calculate the total learning hours delivered in academic year 2023 to 2024 by each 
FE college, by region1 and sector subject area.  
• weight the learning hours accounting for space requirements for each sector 
subject area, to model the expected teaching space for the provision delivered.  
• model the expected non-teaching space (e.g. staff areas, corridors, dining 
spaces), based on learning hours and teaching space requirements. 
• model the expected residential space, based on the maximum number of 
concurrent residential learners in each region during the academic year 2023 to 
2024.  
• weight the three amounts of expected space (teaching, non-teaching, and 
residential) by location factor to reflect differing construction costs by region.   
• calculate allocation amounts in proportion to the weighted total expected space. 
Counting learning hours 
We count learning hours using Guided Learning Hours (GLH) from the Learning Aim 
Reference Service (LARS), or planned programme hours, depending on the type of 
provision. 
For apprenticeships (FundModel 36): 
• We count learning hours for apprenticeship ‘off-the-job’ training using the planned 
hours specified in the programme aim. Planned hours are capped at a maximum 
of 7 hours per week 
• We count learning hours for English and Maths aims as any other aim (see 
below). These aims are defined as “Basic Skills Maths and English” as set out in 
page 18 of Qualification achievement rates: education and training specification 
2023 to 2024 
• We do not count learning hours for other apprenticeship aims. This is so that off-
the-job training hours are not double-counted 
 
1 Inner and Outer London are considered as distinct regions. The list of regions and the assigned location 
factor are set out in the annex 
5 
For aims other than apprenticeships, we count learning hours using the first of the 
following methods for which data is available for the aim: 
• GLH from LARS 
• Midpoint of the minimum and maximum GLH from LARS 
• Hours specified in the aim title (if a range of hours is specified, use the midpoint). 
Examples are given in table 1 
• Assign learning hours based on the length of the aim in calendar days, defined as 
the time between the learning start date and planned learning end date. The 
number of learning hours for each aim length is set out in table 2 and is based on 
the average learning hours of aims with a similar length. 
Table 1: Examples of learning hours from aim title 
Aim reference Aim title Learning hours 
Z0059806 Multiply (numeracy) provision delivered together 
with employers, including courses designed to 
cover specific numeracy skills required in the 
workplace,6 to 10 hours 
8 
Z0007947 Non regulated Adult skills formula funded 
provision, Entry Level, Nursing and Subjects and 
Vocations Allied to Medicine, Up to 2 hrs, PW B 
2 
Z0059794 Multiply (numeracy) provision designed to help 
people use numeracy to manage their money, over 
30 hours 
30 
 
Table 2: Learning hours by aim length 
Planned aim length (inclusive) Learning Hours 
1 to 7 days 7 * [number of days, to a maximum of 5 days] 
8 to 14 days 52 
15 to 93 days 56.5 
94 to 186 days 80.5 
187 to 365 days 130 
Over 365 days 360 
 
6 
Learning hours for some aims span multiple academic years. We only capture the 
learning hours which take place within academic year 2023 to 2024 for the FECCA. We 
assume that learning hours are evenly distributed throughout the length of the aim. 
For aims which are withdrawn, we count the learning hours taking place before 
withdrawal.  
Learning aims that are excluded 
The aims excluded from the FECCA are: 
• Programme aims, except for apprenticeships 
• Aims delivered at distance 
• Aims with an actual learning end date before the start of academic year 2023 to 
2024 
• HE aims 
• Work experience/placement aims 
• T Level occupational specialisms 
• End-point assessments 
• Skills bootcamp end-point aims 
• Aims with no specified Source of Funding (i.e. the learner or employer is paying 
the full cost of the learning aim) 
• Apprenticeship aims that aren’t the programme aim, or Maths and English aims 
taken as part of an apprenticeship 
All other aims are included in the allocation. Learning hours for all aims contribute equally 
to the final allocation, regardless of the source of funding.  
Subject area weightings 
We map each sector subject area to a space group and utilisation rate, as defined in the 
FE college Schedule of Accommodation. These are set out in Table 3 below. In cases 
where the sector subject area for an aim is missing, these are mapped to the 
‘Classrooms/ICT-rich Classrooms’ teaching space group. A description for each sector 
subject area is available at Qualification descriptions - GOV.UK.  
 
 
 
7 
Table 3: Space groups by Sector Subject Area 
Space group Sector Subject Areas  m2 per 
workplace 
Utilisati
on rate 
Classrooms/ 
ICT-rich 
Classrooms 
1.4 (Public services), 1.5 (Child development 
and well being), 2.2 (Mathematics and 
statistics), 3.2 (Horticulture and forestry), 3.4 
(Environmental conservation), 5.3 (Urban, rural 
and regional planning), 6.2 (Digital technology 
(users)), 8.2 (Travel and tourism), 9.4 
(Publishing and information services), 10.1 
(History), 10.3 (Philosophy), 10.4 (Theology and 
religious studies), 11.1 (Geography), 11.2 
(Sociology and social policy), 11.3 (Politics), 
11.4 (Economics), 11.5 (Anthropology), 12.1 
(Languages, literature and culture of the British 
Isles), 12.2 (Other languages, literature and 
culture), 12.3 (Linguistics), 13.1 (Teaching and 
lecturing), 13.2 (Direct learning support), 15.1 
(Accounting and finance), 15.2 (Administration), 
15.3 (Business management), 15.4 (Marketing 
and sales), 15.5 (Law and legal services) 
2.2 48% 
Small-scale 2.1 (Science), 3.3 (Animal care and veterinary 
science), 5.1 (Architecture), 6.1 (Digital 
technology (practitioners)), 10.2 (Archaeology 
and archaeological sciences) 
3.2 48% 
Medium-scale 7.1 (Retailing and wholesaling), 7.3 (Services 
enterprises), 9.2 (Craft, creative arts and 
design), 9.3 (Media and communication) 
4.9 44% 
Large-scale 1.1 (Medicine and dentistry), 1.2 (Nursing, and 
subjects and vocations allied to medicine), 1.3 
(Health and social care), 3.1 (Agriculture), 7.4 
(Hospitality and catering), 9.1 (Performing arts), 
14.1 (Foundations for learning and life), 14.2 
(Preparation for work) 
6.5 40% 
Extra-large 
scale 
4.1 (Engineering), 4.2 (Manufacturing 
technologies), 4.3 (Transportation operations 
and maintenance), 5.2 (Building and 
construction), 7.2 (Warehousing and 
distribution), 8.1 (Sport, leisure, and recreation) 
7.5 36% 
8 
Expected teaching GIFA 
Teaching space is the space used for delivery of learning hours, e.g. classrooms, animal 
care training rooms, workshops, and dance studios. 
We assume that 70% of learning hours in each sector subject area take place in 
classrooms, with the remaining 30% of learning hours taking place in the space category 
to which the sector subject area has been assigned. 
We calculate the number of workplaces required in each space type as follows: 
learning hours / (total available hours x utilisation rate) 
Where “total available hours” is 1,440 hours as set out in Further education estates 
planning - Understanding the estate - Guidance - GOV.UK. Utilisation rates are taken 
from the Schedule of Accomodation and are defined as the proportion of workplaces that 
are in use (as an average) throughout the annual 1440-hour period.  
 
We calculate the required teaching space as follows: 
(workplaces required in mapped space × m2 per workplace for mapped space) + 
(workplaces required in classrooms × m2 per workplace for classrooms) 
For each college, we calculate the teaching space required for each sector subject area 
in which teaching is taking place.  
Expected non-teaching GIFA 
Non-teaching space is the space used to support teaching, e.g. dining and social spaces, 
staffrooms, storage, toilets, and hallways. More detail can be found in FE college 
Schedule of Accommodation. 
We calculate non-teaching space in two parts: support space, and balance space. 
Calculations are based on two factors: 
• Planned Average Attendance (PAA)2 
• Teaching space 
We calculate support space as follows: 
(PAA × 2.6m2) + (teaching space × 13%) 
We calculate balance space as follows: 
(PAA × 0.09m2) + ((teaching space + support space) × 43%) 
 
 
2 PAA is calculated as total learning hours, divided by total available hours (defined as 1,440) 
9 
Non-teaching space is the sum of support space and balance space. These values are 
taken from the Schedule of Accommodation (“Library volume 1”) as the expected GIFA 
for support space and balance space.  
Expected residential GIFA 
Residential space is the space used for accommodation of residential learners. 
Residential learners are defined as: 
• Learners with code 5 for the learner accommodation field 
• Learners with at least one aim with Learning Delivery Monitoring code 322 
For each college with residential learners recorded, we calculate the highest number of 
concurrent residential learners at any point within the academic year. We multiply this by 
34m2 to calculate the required residential space. If a college has residential learners in 
multiple regions, then this is done separately for each region to allow for location 
weighting in the next step. 
An estimate of 34m2 is based on the standards set out in Annex B FE Residential 
Accommodation National Minimum Standards.  
Total expected GIFA and resulting allocations 
For each FE college, we calculate the total expected space to deliver the learning 
provision by that college in each region as the sum of teaching, non-teaching, and 
residential space.  
We weight the expected space in each region by applying location factors, produced by 
Building Cost Information Service, to reflect the different cost of construction works 
around the country. 
The FECCA formula allocates funding between FE colleges in proportion with their total 
expected space, accounting for regional cost differences.  
 
 
 
 
10 
Annex: excluded aims 
Aims excluded How aims are identified 
Programme aims, except for 
apprenticeships, 
Learning Aim Reference ZPROG001 and 
Funding Model not 36 
Aims delivered at distance Delivery Location Postcode "ZZ99 9ZZ" 
Aims with an actual learning end date 
before the start of Academic Year 2023 to 
2024 
Learning Actual End Date before 01 
August 2023 
HE aims EnglandFEHEStatus “H” 
Work experience/placement aims Any of the following Learning Aim 
References: 
• Z0009121  
• Z0009122  
• Z0009123  
• Z0009124  
• Z0009125  
• Z0009128  
• Z0009129  
• Z0009130  
• Z0009547  
• Z0010081  
• Z0010197  
• Z0060200  
• Z0060201  
• Z0060203  
• Z0060204  
• Z0060205  
• Z0060206  
• Z0060207  
• Z0060208  
• Z0060209  
• ZWRKX001  
• ZWRKX002  
• ZWRKX003 
11 
T Level occupational specialisms Any Learning Aim Reference starting with 
“ZTLOS” 
End-point assessments LearnAimRefType 1467 
Skills bootcamp end-point aims Learning Aim Reference Z0059747, 
Z0059748, Z0059749 
Aims with no specified Source of Funding Source of Funding not returned 
Apprenticeship aims that aren’t the 
programme aim, or Maths and English 
aims taken as part of an apprenticeship 
Funding Model 36 and Learning Aim 
Reference not ZPROG001 and 
SR_Qualification_Type not “Basic Skills 
Maths and English” as set out on page 18 
of Qualification achievement rates: 
education and training specification 2023 
to 2024. 
Annex: location factors 
Region Location 
factor 
North East 0.93 
Yorkshire and the Humber 0.94 
West Midlands 0.95 
North West 0.99 
East of England 1.01 
South West 1.02 
East Midlands 1.05 
South East 1.08 
Outer London 1.19 
Inner London 1.26 
 
12 
 
© Crown copyright 2025 
This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0, 
except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit 
nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3.  
 
Where we have identified any third-party copyright information, you will need to obtain 
permission from the copyright holders concerned. 
 
About this publication: 
 
enquiries  https://www.gov.uk/contact-dfe   
download  www.gov.uk/government/publications  
Follow us on X: @educationgovuk 
Connect with us on Facebook: facebook.com/educationgovuk   
 
  


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This is the latest release
Published 17 July 2025
Next update July 2026
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Produced by Department for Education
This annual release provides national projections for the number of
pupils in schools in England by type of school and age.
These statistics are calculated based on the Office for National Statistics
(ONS) population estimates and projections, monthly birth registration
data up to and including 2023, and school census data up to and
including January 2025. 
The pupil projections use the most recent ONS data available:
ONS population estimates, which last year were rebased back to
2011 to take account of the 2021 Census
ONS latest mid-2022 based projections (opens in a new tab), which
now also take account of the 2021 Census 
These mid-2022 based projections include the results of the 2021
census, updated long term fertility and mortality assumptions, and
alternative scenarios (variant projections). These ONS projections
assume a higher long-term international migration, lower future fertility,
and longer life expectancy than in the previous (2021-based interim)
national population projections.
The latest long-term international migration provisional release was
published after the ONS population estimates and projections used in
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our modelling. It showed that for the calendar year ending December
2024 indicated long-term net migration is down by almost 50%
compared to December 2023. This follows a 20% reduction seen in
year ending June 2024 (compared to the year ending June 2023), which
is taken account of in ONS’s population projections. We have not made
any adjustments as a result of the new migration data and continue to
use the principal projection variant, as the impact of using the low
migration variant is minimal and there is still uncertainty around future
migration.
For more information, please see the methodology document.
All projections are subject to uncertainty as they depend on the
information available at any given moment in time and cannot allow for
future changes in demographic behaviour. 
Due to the increased uncertainty in long-term net migration assumptions,
pupil projections in this release are published up to 2030, rather than up
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Headline facts and figures - 2025
Number of pupils
4,205,117
in nursery & primary schools by 2030, an expected fall of
300,000 from the population in 2025
Number of pupils
3,135,086
in secondary schools by 2030, an expected fall of 97,000
from the population in 2025
The population attending primary and nursery schools peaked in 2019 and the figures have been
gradually falling since then. This is primarily due to the number of births generally falling since 2012. 
Since 2018, the population in secondary schools had been steadily increasing by around 2% a year
until 2023 where it then slowed down to a 1.3% increase in 2024. The latest census shows a 0.1%
decrease in 2025. Projections data indicate that the secondary school population is likely to have
plateaued between 2024 and 2025, will remain at a similar level until 2026, and is then projected to start
declining slowly. This is two years earlier than the peak projected last year but may be subject to
change if pupil numbers bounce back, fluctuate, or plateau for a few years.
The population in state-funded special schools has seen year on year increase of 6% between 2018
and 2022 and 5% since 2023. Projections data indicate that numbers are expected to peak in 2026 -
2027.
The number of children in alternative provision schools dropped substantially in 2021 (by 18%) and
2022 (by a further 9%) as the pandemic reduced the opportunities to refer children. Figures returned to
the approximate pre-pandemic levels in 2024 and increased a further 5% in 2025. Projected figures
are  expected to peak in 2026 – 2027 then gradually fall. However, the level of change seen in 2021
and 2022 that is used in the modelling means that this projection is more uncertain than usual. 
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National pupil projection results and comparison to previous model results
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Comparison of the results from the 2024 and 2025 pupil projection models
Figures are reported as full time equivalent (FTE) unless specified otherwise. 
In this release, projections are only provided up to 2030 due to the increased uncertainty in migration
assumptions. The projection model previously published in 2024 only provided data up to 2028 due to the
increased uncertainty in fertility assumptions from 2029 onwards.
The 2024 model showed a state-funded school population of 7,779,000 by 2028 (down 2.2% from 2024).
The current model, still showing a decline, projects a population of 7,694,000 by 2028 (down 3.2% from
2024), which is 85,000 (1.1%) fewer pupils than the previous projection for 2028. 
In 2025, the actual population in state-funded schools was 7,899,000. By 2030, this is projected to
decrease by 395,000 (5.0%) to 7,504,000.
Data guidance
Learn more about the data files used in this release
using our online guidance
Download all data (ZIP)
Download all data available in this release as a
compressed ZIP file
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The latest figures from the January school census showed that there has been a decrease of around 60,000
(0.7%) pupils across all school types from the previous year. There are fewer pupils in primary schools this
year compared to last year, with little change to pupil numbers in state-funded secondary (when all through
schools are included), AP schools, special schools and non-maintained schools. This is primarily driven by
demographic changes, following a peak of births in 2012, as children reach secondary school age and lower
numbers of pupils are moving into primary school age. 
 
Historical and projected pupil numbers (up to and including age 15 at the start of the academic
year) by main school type, England
Early years 
Early years calculations include 4-year-olds in reception class, which almost all children attend, as well as the
younger ages where participation in the state-funded sector is much smaller and there are more part-time
pupils.
The FTE population of under 5-year-olds in state funded education is projected to be 771,000 in 2030. This
is a 4.0% decrease from the actual figure for 2025 (803,000).
This projected population decrease is due to lower births seen in 2023 and 2024 (mid-year to mid-year), and
continued lower births projected by ONS up to and beyond the 2030 time period presented in this
publication. Compared to the 2024 projection model, which projected a 4.4% (36,000) decrease in 5-year-
olds between 2024 and 2028, the current model projects a faster decrease of 6.5% (53,000) over the same
period. One reason for this could be that the migration assumptions in the latest ONS population data has
resulted in fewer women of childbearing age than previously projected. 
State-funded nursery & primary schools
The overall pupil population in these school types is projected to be 4,205,000 in 2030. This is 300,000
(6.7%) lower than the actual population in 2025 (4,505,000).
The revised projection for 2028 of 4,319,000 pupils represents a 5.4% fall from 2024; this is 38,000 lower
than the previous forecast, as last year’s projection showed a 4.5% fall over the same period.
The nursery & primary population is therefore still projected to drop and is doing so at a faster rate than
previously projected.
State-funded secondary schools
The secondary school population is projected to be 3,135,000 in 2030. This is 97,000 lower than the actual
school population reported in the 2025 school census of 3,232,000.
The revised projection for 2028 of 3,208,000 secondary pupils represents a 0.8% fall from 2024, and is
55,000 (1.7%) lower than last year’s projections which reverses the previously projected 0.9% increase over
the same period. 
The pattern of change in the secondary school population seems to indicate that it plateaued between 2024
and 2025, will remain at a similar level until 2026, and is then projected to start declining slowly. This
suggested plateau is earlier than the peak in 2026 projected last year but will be subject to change if pupil
numbers bounce back, fluctuate, or continue to plateau in future years.
The actual number of secondary school pupils in 2025 fell slightly as more pupils moved out of the
secondary phase than moved in. Changing historical birth rates and trends in net migration are likely driving
factors.
 
Actual (2025) and projected pupil numbers by school type, England (thousands)
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Components of change
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There are several elements which affect the results of the projections. The key elements, and how they affect
the results, are detailed below.
Births
The number of births feed directly into the projections but also affect how births are projected in the future.
The birth rate increased for over a decade until 2012, after which it dropped notably. Birth rates have been
generally dropping ever since, except for a slight rise in 2021 that was related to the pandemic.
The fertility assumptions used by ONS in the production of their mid-2022 population projections have been
updated and projected total fertility rate is lower than in previous rounds of projections. 
Participation rates
These are calculated based on the number of pupils attending school (from the school census) measured
against the total population figures.
It is therefore important to use population estimates and projections that accurately reflect the overall
population size, now the 2021 Census results are available.
The participation rates are particularly important in the early years. Parents can choose whether to send their
children aged under 5 to a school setting instead of, or in conjunction with, formal or informal childcare.
The participation rates for each school type are projected into the future as the basis of the calculations of
projected numbers. 
These rates are affected by any unusual patterns in the underlying total population or the school census
data. For example, the large drop in the number of children recorded as attending state-funded alternative
provision in 2021 (18% lower compared to the 2020 school census) would have reduced the participation
rate for that school type significantly in that year.
Recent data from the school census is showing that in January 2025 there was a decrease of around 60,000
pupils in schools compared to the same period last year. This is primarily driven by demographic changes
rather than pupils leaving state education for other settings. The large birth cohort from 2008 to 2012 has
started to move out of the secondary phase and we have continually seen lower numbers of pupils moving
into the primary phase.
Immigration
Direct immigration of pupils born outside the UK historically has only had a small effect on the school age
population. However, the latest estimates of long-term net migration (December 2024) which is down by
50% compared to the same period last year, are likely to be a contributing factor in the fall in pupil numbers
reported in the 2025 school census. As ONS noted in their publication, the Home Office has reported in
its monthly visa statistics (opens in a new tab), that recent decreases in work-related and study-related
immigration are related to policy reforms (opens in a new tab) early in 2024 that restricted most overseas
students from bringing family members to the UK, restricted care workers from bringing family members
(opens in a new tab) and increased salary thresholds (opens in a new tab) for those on Skilled Worker visas.
 
Migration can have a larger effect on the birth rate, as historically fertility rates are reported to be higher for
women who are resident in the UK but were born outside the UK. For more information on this see the
methodology section.
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Source data
Hide
These pupil projections have been produced using ONS rebased population estimates, that take account of
the 2021 Census and mid-2022 population projections. 
The ONS population projections, which are the base for these pupil projections, are created using
assumptions of the level of future fertility, migration, and life expectancy. However, there are uncertainties in
the calculation of these components. As such, ONS produce several projections (called variants) based on
alternative assumptions.
The National Pupil Projections are produced using the principal projection variant, in line with the ONS national
population projections and due to the uncertainty around future migration. The table below shows the effect of
key alternative variant projections on the pupil projections, and further data is available as part of this release.
Note: the primary age projections are most affected because the fertility changes feed into the lower age
ranges more quickly.
Population of primary and secondary age, across state funded schools, across state funded
schools, by 2030 under the variant projections, England
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Further information
Hide
More information on the school census data which forms the start of the pupil projection model, and the
differences seen in 2025, can be found in the publication ‘Schools, Pupils and their Characteristics’ published
on Explore Education Statistics (EES).
More information on the source data used in the production of this projection can be found in the methodology
document. 
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Help and support
Methodology
Find out how and why we collect, process and publish these statistics.
National pupil projections
Official statistics
These are Official Statistics and have been produced in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.
This can be broadly interpreted to mean that these statistics are:
managed impartially and objectively in the public interest
meet identified user needs
produced according to sound methods
well explained and readily accessible
Find out more about the standards we follow to produce these statistics through our Standards for official
statistics published by DfE guidance.
Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR).
OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all
producers of official statistics should adhere to.
You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards. Alternatively,
you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website.
Contact us
If you have a specific enquiry about National pupil projections statistics and data:
Pupils and School Finance team
Email: PupilPopulation.PROJECTIONS@education.gov.uk
Contact name: Dexter Roberts
Press office
If you have a media enquiry:
Telephone: 020 7783 8300
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Reporting year 2025 : National pupil projections

1. Introduction
This document outlines key elements of the schools national funding formula
(NFF) to support planning by local authorities, schools and academy trusts, ahead
of the publication of the NFF allocations for 2026 to 2027. Detail on the high
needs NFF for 2026 to 2027 will be published alongside the NFF allocations.   
Specifically, this summary provides the structure of the schools NFF for 2026 to
2027, including which factors will be used and how they will operate, along with
requirements on local authorities’ funding formulae. We are publishing this
information in advance of confirming the NFF factor values and NFF allocations
for 2026 to 2027 to be published in autumn 2025.  
In June 2025, the government announced that, starting from September 2026,
free school meals (FSM) will be extended to all children in households receiving
Universal Credit. For 2026 to 2027, we are not proposing any changes to the
schools NFF to allocate funding for this expansion of FSM. Instead, the funding
needed for the FSM expansion will be provided through a separate grant. Further
details on how this grant will be calculated will be published separately in due
course.
Guidance
Schools national funding formula
(NFF) summary policy document for
2026 to 2027
Published 30 June 2025
Applies to England
Menu
Home Education, training and skills School and academy funding Funding for different types of schools and settings
Pre-16 schools funding: local authority guidance for 2026 to 2027
Department 
for Education
Contents
1. Introduction
2. The structure of the
schools NFF for 2026 to
2027
3. Rolling in previous grants
4. Local authority formulae in
2026 to 2027
5. Timeline
6. Disapplication
2. The structure of the schools NFF for
2026 to 2027 
The 2026 to 2027 schools NFF will use the same factors as the 2025 to 2026
NFF. These are shown in the diagram below, and then explained in more detail:
2.1 Figure one: provisional factor values in 2026 to
2027
Area cost adjustmentGeographic funding
C
A
B
D
Basic entitlement
Depriv ation Low prior
attainment
English as an
additional
language
Mobility
Lump
sum
Sparsity
Rates PFI Exceptional
premises
Split sites Growth
Premises
School-led funding
Additional needs
funding
Basic per pupil
funding
Protection fundingE Minimum per pupil lev el Funding floor
This diagram, which is not to scale, illustrates the factors that are used when
calculating schools block dedicated schools grant (DSG) funding allocations
through the NFF.
The individual NFF factors for 2026 to 2027 will operate in the same way as in
2025 to 2026.
2.2 Figure 2: basic entitlement factor for 2026 to
2027
A Basic per pupilfunding
Basic entitlement
The basic entitlement factor – every pupil will attract this funding. There will
continue to be different factor values for primary pupils, key stage 3 pupils, and
key stage 4 pupils.
2.3 Figure 3: additional needs funding for 2026 to
2027
B Deprivation
Low prior
attainment
English as an
additional
language
MobilityAdditional needs
funding
Additional needs funding – the NFF in 2026 to 2027 will continue to provide
funding for pupils with additional needs, which will vary by phase (primary or
secondary) unless noted, as measured by:
Deprivation
free school meals (FSM) factor – pupils who are eligible for free school meals
will attract this funding. This funding is broadly intended to cover the cost of
providing free meals for each eligible pupil. The value of this factor will not vary
depending on the phase of the pupil
free school meals Ever6 (FSM6) factor – all pupils who are recorded as eligible
for free school meals, or who have been at any point in the last 6 years, attract
funding through this factor. FSM and FSM6 pupil data will be taken from the
October 2024 schools census, and will not reflect the recently announced
expansion in FSM eligibility. As explained above, schools will receive funding
for the costs of the FSM expansion through a separate grant outside the NFF
income deprivation affecting children index (IDACI) – this funding is based on
the 2019 area-based IDACI measuring the relative deprivation of lower-layer
super output areas (LSOAs). For the NFF, the IDACI ranks are divided into 7
bands A to G, with A representing the most deprived areas and G the least
deprived. Additional funding is targeted towards pupils in bands A to F, with
more funding directed to pupils in the more deprived bands
Low prior attainment (LPA)
Pupils will attract this funding if, at primary, they did not achieve the expected level
of development in the early years foundation stage profile assessment, and at
secondary, did not achieve the expected standard in key stage 2 in either of
reading, writing or maths  
English as an additional language
Pupils would attract this funding if they entered state education in England during
the last 3 years, and they have a first language other than English 
Mobility factor
This factor allocates funding to schools with a high proportion of pupils who have
an entry date in the last 3 years which is not typical (in most cases, if their first
recorded appearance on the school’s roll was other than the October census)
2.4 Figure 4: school-led funding factors for 2026 to
2027
Lump
sum
Sparsity
Rates PFI Exceptional
premises
Split
sites
Growth
School-led
fundingC
Premises
The school-led factors that will be used in the NFF for 2026 to 2027 are:  
Lump sum
Each school attracts the same lump sum through the NFF irrespective of its size
or phase
Sparsity factor
Eligibility for sparsity funding depends on the distance the pupils living closest to
the school would have to travel to their next nearest appropriate same phase
school, and the average number of pupils per year group. The distance
thresholds, year group size thresholds, and operation of the distance and year
group size tapers will remain as they were for 2025 to 2026. The value of this
factor varies depending on the phase of the school
Premises
The NFF in 2026 to 2027 will continue to allocate funding to reflect the costs
associated with a school’s premises and overheads: 
rates – for local accounting purposes, rates funding allocations will continue to
notionally feature in the NFF allocation publication for all schools, including
schools in billing authority areas where rates are paid directly by DfE.  Actual
allocations to schools in those areas will not include funding for rates. All rates
are based on actual costs 
private finance initiative (PFI) – the purpose of this factor is to fund the
unavoidable additional costs to a school of being in a PFI contract. PFI factor
funding is allocated to local authorities based on historic spend, subject to
approval by DfE. Further information is available in the private finance initiative
(PFI) factor in the schools national funding formula (NFF) guidance 
split sites – this factor targets extra funding to schools which operate across
more than one site. Schools can attract funding for up to a maximum of 3
additional eligible split sites. There will continue to be basic eligibility funding –
that is, a lump sum that schools attract for each site (up to the maximum of 3
additional eligible sites) – as well as distance funding (through which up to 3
additional sites which are more than 100 metres from the main site, attract
additional funding) 
exceptional circumstances – this factor provides additional funding where local
authorities have had approval from DfE to direct additional funding to a small
number of schools with significant additional and atypical premises costs. Local
authorities receive exceptional circumstances funding based on approved
spend in 2025 to 2026
2.5 Figure 5: area cost adjustment for 2026 to 2027
Area cost adjustmentGeographic
funding
D
The area cost adjustment (ACA) in the schools NFF provides an uplift to the
allocations for some local authorities to reflect variations in labour market costs
across the country, based on the general labour market trends and the salary
variations in the teaching workforce. 
It is a combination of: 
a teachers’ pay cost adjustment, to reflect the differences in the basic pay
ranges between the four regional pay bands for teachers
a general labour market (GLM) cost adjustment, to reflect geographical variation
in wage costs for non-teaching staff
Some local authorities, those that are partly in ‘London fringe’ areas, will have one
ACA for schools in the fringe part of the authority, and a different ACA for the
schools in the non-fringe area. The level of uplift that schools in these local
authorities receive will depend on the local district area in which the school is
located.
2.6 Figure 6: funding protections for 2026 to 2027
Protection fundingE Minimum per pupil level Funding floor
We will continue to provide funding protections in 2026 to 2027:  
Minimum per pupil levels (MPPLs)
The MPPLs guarantee a minimum amount of funding for every pupil. The funding
received through the MPPL varies from school to school depending on the year
groups they have. The MPPL values are compulsory in local authorities’ funding
formulae that determine actual funding allocations for maintained schools and
academies. Academy trusts have flexibilities over how the funding they are
allocated in respect of their individual academies is then distributed across
academies in their trust. This means that, in some cases, an academy could
receive a lower per pupil funding amount than the MPPL value. This may reflect,
for example, activities that are paid for by the trust centrally, rather than by
individual academies
The funding floor
The funding floor ensures that a school’s funding is protected year-on-year,
preventing schools from seeing sudden excessive drops in their funding even
where the core formula factors indicate that their funding would otherwise be
lower. Local authorities’ funding formulae must include a minimum funding
guarantee (MFG) that operates in a similar way to the funding floor
3. Rolling in previous grants
The schools budget support grant (SBSG) and the National Insurance
contributions (NICs) grant will be rolled into the NFF for 2026 to 2027.  
For these two grants, the funding will be rolled in following a very similar approach
to previous grants. That is: 
adding cash amounts to the primary, key stage 3 and key stage 4 per pupil
funding factors in the schools NFF, to represent the equivalent amounts in the
grants 
adding cash amounts to the primary and secondary FSM6 factors, and the lump
sum, in the schools NFF, to represent the equivalent amounts in the grants 
adding cash amounts to the MPPLs for primary, key stage 3 and key stage 4
respectively, to reflect the average per pupil amount of funding that schools
attracted through the preceding grants 
adding an amount representing the total funding each school received through
the preceding grants on to its baseline, which is used to calculate funding
protection for the schools through the funding floor  
For the NICs grant, the funding rolled in to the NFF will use the published funding
rates directly.  
For SBSG, however, we will take a slightly different approach to rolling-in this
funding to the NFF. This is because the total funding in the SBSG in 2025 to 2026
is calculated regarding the full-year cost of the support staff pay award, as well as
the part-year cost of the 2024 teachers pay award (from September 2025).
Therefore, to roll in this funding, we will calculate the full year equivalent of the
whole of the SBSG and then calculate new (higher) full-year equivalent funding
rates from this new total. The cash values rolled into the NFF in 2026 to 2027 will
then reflect these full-year equivalent funding rates. This is the same approach we
took to rolling the previous core schools budget grant (CSBG) into the 2025 to
2026 NFF.  
4. Local authority formulae in 2026 to
2027  
Local authorities will continue to be responsible for deciding local funding
formulae for mainstream schools in their area for 2026 to 2027. The funding
levels that schools – both maintained schools and academies – receive will be
determined by the respective local formulae.  
Local authorities must continue to move their local formula factor values at least a
further 10% closer to the corresponding NFF values (the comparison is made
after the latter is adjusted by the ACA), except where local formulae are already
‘mirroring’ the NFF. These criteria do not apply to rates, PFI or exceptional
circumstances factors.  
As in previous years, local factor values within 2.5% of the respective NFF values
will be taken as ‘mirroring’ the NFF. This means that local authorities with factor
values within +/- 2.5% of the NFF values in 2025 to 2026 can set their 2026 to
2027 factor values anywhere within +/- 2.5% of the 2026 to 2027 NFF values.
Additionally, no local authority will be required to adjust their factor values closer
than +/- 2.5% of the 2026 to 2027 NFF due to the 10% tightening requirement. 
As part of the tightening requirements, local authorities are not allowed to
‘overshoot’ the NFF  value by more than the 2.5% ‘mirroring’ threshold. As such, a
local authority which had a local factor value below the NFF value in 2025 to 2026
should increase the local factor value in 2026 to 2027 to get closer to the NFF –
but it cannot set the factor value more than 2.5% above the NFF value.
Conversely, a local authority which had a local factor value above the NFF value in
2025 to 2026 cannot set that factor value more than 2.5% below the 2026 to 2027
NFF value.  
For 2026 to 2027, there are 16 funding factors, most of which are mandatory for
all local authorities. These mandatory factors remain unchanged from 2025 to
2026. The specific requirements for the values of these factors in local funding
formulae will be confirmed when the NFF allocations are published. 
Mandatory: 
basic entitlement 
FSM 
FSM6 
IDACI 
minimum level of per-pupil funding 
LPA
English as an additional language  
pupil mobility 
sparsity 
lump sum 
London fringe (for the eligible authorities) 
split sites 
MFG 
Optional: 
rates 
PFI contracts (with DfE agreement) 
exceptional circumstances (with DfE agreement) 
5. Timeline 
We plan to publish the NFF allocations and supporting documentation (including
operational guidance) in autumn 2025. This is because of the multi-year spending
review which concluded in June 2025. We expect that the DSG allocations using
the NFF will be published in December 2025 as in previous years. 
The authority proforma tool (APT) will be released for local authority submissions
in mid-December 2025 with a deadline return date towards the end of January
2026. This is like previous years. We also expect to release a modelling version
of the APT following the publication of the NFF in autumn 2025, so that local
authorities can model their 2026 to 2027 schools block formulae. The final version
of the APT will again be populated from schools block data, primarily drawn from
the autumn 2025 schools census. 
6. Disapplication 
Each year, local authorities can submit requests to ‘disapply’ certain regulations
governing their local funding formulae. These disapplications range from highly
technical issues specific to individual schools to requests for transferring funds
from the schools block to the high needs budget, which local authorities may see
as crucial for managing their high needs cost pressures. 
We encourage local authorities to submit disapplications as early as possible but
all requests should be submitted by 17 November 2025.  This is to ensure
decisions are communicated back to local authorities prior to the APT submission
deadline.
Please contact LA.Disapplications@education.gov.uk with any questions about a
school’s eligibility or to discuss any other request you are considering making. 
We will contact local authorities if the evidence provided to DfE is not sufficient. In
order to build the strongest possible case for your request and allow us to
respond by the APT deadline please provide all necessary supporting evidence in
your initial request. If we need to come back to you requesting further information,
it will increase the risk of us not being able to give you an answer before the APT
deadline.
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