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The Norwegian Taylor rule
Full text linkThis paper estimates various Taylor rules for Norway based on the observed money market rate (Nibor). We begin by examining standard Taylor rules from the literature, applying them to Norwegian data to assess their fit. Next, we estimate a benchmark Taylor rule that is included in Norges Bank’s monetary policy report and compare it with alternative specifications and explore the potential for nonlinearities. Finally, we analyze how the Taylor rule framework has evolved over time and its out-of-sample fit.publishedVersio
Annual address 2025
No full textAddress by Governor Ida Wolden Bache to the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank and invited guests, 13 February 2025.publishedVersio
Trend inflation in Japanese pre-2000s : a Markov-switching DSGE
No full textIn Japan, the inflation rate declined to near-zero, whereas the monetary policy faced a zero lower bound (ZLB) in the 1990s. We examine whether trend inflation had fallen to near-zero prior to the ZLB. To achieve this, we estimate Japanese pre-2000 trend inflation developing a Markov-switching New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model in which non-zero trend inflation is explicitly Incorporated as a Markov chain state. Our estimation results indicate that (i) the trend inflation remained broadly stable at 3.0–3.5 percent from the 1960s to the late 1970s prior to the second Global Oil Crisis. (ii) Then, over time, trend inflation gradually declined to nearly 1.0 percent toward the Plaza Accord in 1985. (iii) Up until 1997 when the ZLB was hit, trend inflation hovered well above zero, mostly near 1.0 percent.publishedVersio
Trolig setter vi renten ned i mars
Full text linkSentralbanksjef Ida Wolden Baches innledning på pressekonferanse om rentebeslutningen 23. januar 2025.publishedVersio
Cooperation and independence - Norges Bank in a turbulent world
Full text linkSpeech by Governor Ida Wolden Bache at the Finance Norway conference on 8 April 2025.publishedVersio
Pengepolitisk rapport 1/2025
Full text linkDen pengepolitiske strategien beskriver hvordan komiteen tolker mandatet for pengepolitikken og gir en ramme for komiteens vurderinger av hvordan pengepolitikken vil innrettes i møte med ulike forstyrrelser. Strategien oppsummeres her og er publisert i sin helhet på Norges Banks nettsider. Norges Banks komité for pengepolitikk og finansiell stabilitet besluttet på møtet 26. mars å holde styringsrenten uendret på 4,5 prosent. Det er usikkerhet om den videre økonomiske utviklingen, men slik komiteen nå vurderer utsiktene, vil styringsrenten mest sannsynlig settes ned i løpet av året.publishedVersio
The interest sensitivity of consumption and investment : evidence from Norway
Full text linkWe use narrative monetary policy shocks and local projections to estimate the impact of monetary policy on consumption and investment. We use granular data to investigate how the response varies across consumption categories, investment types, and sectors. Our findings indicate that both consumption and investment respond - albeit with a notable lag - to monetary policy. The results reveal significant heterogeneity within the subcomponents of both consumption and investment. The consumption response is primarily driven by a drop in services consumption and consumption of durables, indicating that monetary policy also affects the composition of consumption. In terms of investment, the aggregate investment response is driven by tangible investment. Additionally, sectors with high interest costs relative to earnings, such as commercial real estate, are highly sensitive to monetary policy, whereas sectors such as manufacturing, are relatively unaffected.publishedVersio
